氢能市场前景预期展望

2021年，绿色氢气项目数量激增

加强公私合作对增加投资至关重要

据今日油价1月5日报道，分析人士和预测机构表示，低碳氢可以在能源密集型产业脱碳、帮助各国减少排放、向净零排放目标迈进方面发挥关键作用。已宣布的绿色氢项目(即那些希望利用可再生能源从电解水中生产氢的项目)数量在过去一年中激增，比2020年宣布的项目数量增加了一倍。

然而，可再生氢在大幅降低成本方面仍面临着一个艰难曲线，在成为具有竞争力的大规模替代灰氢(由化石燃料制成)或蓝氢(使用碳捕获技术从天然气中生产)道路上也存在障碍。

氢气股票降温

投资者似乎已经意识到，绿色氢能源光明未来仍然依赖于大幅降低成本，并成为一种有竞争力的能源。根据《华尔街日报》编制的FactSet数据，电解槽制氢企业股价在前一年强劲上涨后，在2021年出现了回落。

《华尔街日报》Rochelle Toplensky指出，市场似乎已经意识到，要成为传统燃料和存储解决方案有竞争力的大规模替代品，绿氢燃料还有很长的路要走，这仍然取决于政府在部署、需求创造和成本削减方面的激励和举措。

绿氢项目正在蓄势待发

尽管低成本氢燃料制造商在2021年股票表现开始反映出华尔街重新调整的观点，即绿氢燃料可能需要长达10年时间才能变得具有成本竞争力，但绿氢燃料项目正以有史以来最快的速度发展。

根据全球首席执行官领导的氢理事会(Hydrogen Council) 2021年11月报告，2021年宣布的项目超过520个，比2020年增加了100%。在这些项目中，有221个是大规模工业用途项目，133个是运输部门项目，74个是综合氢经济项目，51个是基础设施项目，43个是千兆规模的生产项目。

根据氢能委员会的说法，这种燃料对于实现净零排放至关重要，因为到2050年它可以减少800亿吨二氧化碳，对实现脱碳能源系统至关重要。

清洁氢需要更多投资和政策支持

然而，在这十年中，规模也将是关键，投资也将是关键，因为在净零情况下仍需要5000亿美元额外投资。该委员会表示，更密切的公私合作对增加投资至关重要，因为到2030年，需要将投资增加四倍，才能使世界走上实现净零轨道。

康明斯董事长兼首席执行官、氢理事会联合主席Tom Linebarger在评论该报告时表示:“氢投资势头明显，但要实现如此大规模转变，需要通过强有力的伙伴关系和政策支持，前所未有地调动公共和私人资源”。

国际能源署(IEA)在10月发布《2021年全球氢能源评估报告》(Global hydrogen Review 2021)中表示，清洁氢能源需要更多承诺和投资，才能实现成本降低和在各个行业的使用。

国际能源署表示，“各国政府需要更快、更果断地采取一系列政策措施，使低碳氢能够发挥潜力，帮助世界实现净零排放，同时支持能源安全”。

IEA执行董事法提赫·比罗尔（Fatih Birol）表示，“我们之前在氢燃料方面有过失败的开始，所以我们不能想当然地认为成功。但这一次，我们看到在使氢更清洁、更便宜、更可用于不同经济部门方面取得了令人振奋的进展”。

该机构表示，政府和私人对氢能源的投资仍远低于使该行业在2050年达到净零所需的资金。各国已承诺提供至少370亿美元，私营部门已宣布投资3000亿美元。然而，国际能源署指出，到2050年实现零碳排放需要1.2万亿美元投资，用于低碳氢的供应和使用，直至2030年。

绿色氢燃料什么时候才具有成本竞争力?

据该机构称，低碳氢燃料将在未来十年内变得具有竞争力。伍德曼肯兹氢研究分析师吉特·范·多尔斯滕（Bridget van Dorsten）上月表示，到2030年，绿氢在一些主要市场将具有竞争力，其中巴西和智利是领先者。

他表示，目前，绿氢能源在全球能源市场上份额很小，与化石燃料替代能源相比，在很大程度上仍然缺乏竞争力。

伍德曼肯兹表示，由于一系列因素，包括规模经济、市场新进入者、更高的自动化程度和模块化程度，预计到2025年电解器资本支出将显著下降。

伍德曼肯兹认为，当低碳绿氢成本在主要市场上变得具有竞争力时，氢的真正游戏规则改变时刻将到来。

多尔斯滕指出，“然而，净零野心背后的动力意味着投资者押注于其长期潜力”。

可再生氢有机会成为全球能源市场一种改变游戏规则的替代燃料。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Will Hydrogen Finally Live Up To The Hype?

The number of green hydrogen projects soared in 2021

Closer public-private collaboration is critical to increasing investments

Low-carbon hydrogen could play a crucial role in the decarbonization of energy-intensive industries and in helping nations to reduce emissions and move closer to their net-zero emission targets, analysts and forecasting agencies say. The number of announced green hydrogen projects—those looking to produce hydrogen from water electrolysis using renewable energy—has soared over the past year, doubling from the number of projects announced in 2020. 

Renewable hydrogen, however, still faces a steep learning curve for significant cost reductions as well as roadblocks on the path to becoming a competitive large-scale alternative to grey hydrogen, made from fossil fuels, or blue hydrogen produced from natural gas using carbon capture.  

Hydrogen Stocks Cool 

Investors have seemed to realize that the bright future for green hydrogen still depends on achieving significant cost reductions and becoming a competitive energy source. Shares in electrolyzer hydrogen-producing companies retreated in 2021, following a blistering rally in the previous year, according to FactSet data compiled by The Wall Street Journal.

The market seems to have realized that green hydrogen still has a long way to go to become a competitive large-scale alternative to traditional fuels and storage solutions, and still depends on government incentives and initiatives for deployment, demand creation, and cost reductions, the Journal’s Rochelle Toplensky notes. 

But Green Hydrogen Projects Gather Momentum

While the stock performance of low-cost hydrogen makers in 2021 has started to reflect the Street’s recalibrated view that it could take green hydrogen up to a decade to become cost-competitive, green hydrogen projects are being announced at the fastest pace ever seen. 

More than 520 projects were announced in 2021, up by 100 percent compared to 2020, according to a November 2021 report by the Hydrogen Council, a global CEO-led initiative. As many as 221 of those projects are for large-scale industrial usage, 133 in the transport sector, 74 in the integrated hydrogen economy, 51 are infrastructure projects, and 43 are giga-scale production projects, the Council said in its ‘Hydrogen for Net-Zero’ report. 

According to the Hydrogen Council, the fuel is central to reaching net-zero emissions because it can abate 80 gigatons of CO2 by 2050 and is critical in enabling a decarbonized energy system.

Clean Hydrogen Needs More Investment, Policy Support

However, scaling will also be critical this decade, as will be investments because half a trillion U.S. dollars in additional investment is still needed in net-zero scenarios. 

Closer public-private collaboration is critical to increasing investments because a fourfold increase is required by 2030 to put the world on the trajectory to Net Zero, the Council says. 

“There is clear momentum in hydrogen investments, but a transformation of such magnitude requires unprecedented mobilisation of public and private resources through strong partnerships and policy support,” said Tom Linebarger, Chairman and CEO of Cummins and Co-Chair of the Hydrogen Council, commenting on the report. 

Clean hydrogen needs more pledges and investments in order to see cost reductions and usage in various industries, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Global Hydrogen Review 2021 in October. 

“Governments need to move faster and more decisively on a wide range of policy measures to enable low-carbon hydrogen to fulfill its potential to help the world reach net zero emissions while supporting energy security,” the IEA said. 

“We have experienced false starts before with hydrogen, so we can’t take success for granted. But this time, we are seeing exciting progress in making hydrogen cleaner, more affordable and more available for use across different sectors of the economy,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA Executive Director.  

Government and private investment in hydrogen are still way below the capital necessary to put the sector on track for net-zero by 2050, the agency says. Countries have committed at least $37 billion, and the private sector has announced $300 billion in investment. Yet, net-zero by 2050 requires $1.2 trillion of investment in low-carbon hydrogen supply and use through to 2030, the IEA notes. 

When Will Green Hydrogen Become Cost Competitive?

According to the agency, low-carbon hydrogen can become competitive within the next decade. 

Green hydrogen can be competitive in some major markets by 2030, with Brazil and Chile front-runners, Bridget van Dorsten, Hydrogen Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said last month. 

Currently, green hydrogen has a small share of the global energy market and is still largely uncompetitive against fossil-fuelled alternatives, van Dorsten says. 

Electrolyzer capex is expected to significantly decline by 2025, due to a range of factors, including economies of scale, new entrants to the market, greater automation, and increased modularity, according to Wood Mackenzie. 

The real game-changer for hydrogen will come when low-carbon green hydrogen costs become competitive in major markets, WoodMac reckons. 

“However, the momentum behind net zero ambitions means that investors are betting on its long-term potential,” van Dorsten noted.  

Renewable hydrogen has the chance to become an alternative game-changer fuel for the global energy market, but it has to overcome several barriers before that.