亚洲LNG供应未来如何？

据伍德麦肯兹1月20日报道，尽管听起来像是破纪录，但亚洲天然气需求的前景极为乐观。尽管有持续的疫情限制、天价现货和来自可再生能源的竞争加剧，该地区天然气消费在未来十年将以每年近3%的速度增长。在我们设定的基本方案中，峰值需求要到2050年以后才会出现，而在加速能源转型方案2（AET-2）中，到2040年，脱碳几乎不会影响亚洲天然气需求。

现在，亚洲这个最大天然气市场的挑战是满足需求。区域天然气产量近期肯定会长期下降，这使得进口依赖性的上升不可避免，这对未来亚洲液化天然气需求来说是经得起考验的，预计未来十年进口将以每年3.7%的速度增长。今天，中国正在推动需求增长，展望未来，东南亚和南亚将成为世界上增长最快的液化天然气市场。

随着亚洲需求攀升，新的长期LNG合同在2021年回升到五年来的最高水平，亚洲买家占全球合同的85%。这些新签约的供应大部分将来自卡塔尔和美国，以填补亚洲天然气需求和该地区大部分地区本土供应下降之间快速增长的差距。

以前认为亚太地区未开发和尚未发现的天然气资源将填补该地区大部分新出现的供需缺口的假设，已经被疲软的E&A活动和低商业转化率打乱。Angus Rodger在最近关于亚洲迫在眉睫的天然气供应危机的报告中，看到了一个不利情况，即亚洲上游项目长期投资不足，到2040年可能需要高达240百万吨/年的额外液化天然气，这几乎是基础案例2.75亿吨/年供应需求差距的两倍。

随着LNG价格达到创纪录的水平，亚洲的买家渴望获得新的合同以满足激增的需求，为什么该地区的LNG回填项目没有成为投资的首选？

对于亚太地区的LNG回填机会，时间至关重要

由于整个亚太地区有几个未开发的LNG回填机会尚未开发，机会之窗有关闭的风险。伍德赛德和桑托斯去年在Scarborough/Pluto T2扩建项目和巴罗萨天然气项目的FID中展示了可以做什么，来回填达尔文LNG项目。但是，对于该地区两个最古老和最大的液化天然气项目，即澳大利亚的西北大陆架（NWS）和印度尼西亚的Bontang，每年多达1500万吨的潜在回填供应的进展仍然缓慢得令人痛苦。这两个项目的回填方案成本都不低，对这两个项目来说，重大决定迫在眉睫，即优先考虑回填开发还是开始关闭生产线。

正如亚太天然气和液化天然气团队同事Daniel Toleman所说，“在液化天然气价格创新高和区域天然气需求强劲的背景下，时间是至关重要的”。

西北大陆架和Bontang项目为保持满载而战

西北大陆架需要新的供应来保持其五条生产线的满载，迄今为止签署的第三方交易只是一种权宜之计。但是，虽然 “最好的情况 ”是通过回填来支持每年约1000万吨的产出，但所有选择都会带来各自挑战。鉴于高成本、环境问题和合资企业的错位，Browse这个领先的回填竞争者看起来不太可能在这十年里被开发。由于二氧化碳含量高达12%，碳捕获和储存将是必要的，这给已经很困难的项目增加了复杂性和成本。

在其他选择中，Clio-Acme油田更有可能被优先用于回填雪佛龙的Wheatstone项目，因为该公司决定出售其NWS股份，转而专注于这个早期的核心运营项目。最近伍德赛德的Wheatstone供应油田的储量减少，也可能有助于推动Clio-Acme发展。

印度尼西亚传统的Bontang项目继续面临着现有供应的重大不确定性。由于埃尼Merakes和PERTAMINA的Offshore Mahakam、东加里曼丹（Attaka）和Sanga Sanga PSC的问题，客户已经被要求在今年推迟或取消货运。

为了补救这一点，2021财政激励措施，如Offshore Mahakam，加上价格飞涨，应该帮助PtTAMAMA增加回填钻井。为了应对Mahakam严重衰退，预计PERTAMINA将在2022年提供入住机会。

在其他地方，Merakes的持续生产问题可能会威胁到埃尼公司在2023年之前提高对Bontang供应的计划。如果挑战持续存在，埃尼将不得不在Jangkrik的填充钻井中做出选择，以阻止下降，或者提前进行未来的合作。

雪佛龙出售其印尼深水开发项目（IDD）的结果必须尽快出来。自2019年以来，在市场上，实际需要在今年达成交易，以便IDD的天然气在本世纪末之前取代邦当的产量下降。还有很多事情要做，包括就价格达成协议，政府批准延长PSC和授权新的开发计划。

在其他地方，2022年的一个关键点是巴布亚新几内亚政府同意与埃克森美孚领导的P'nyang天然气合资企业达成协议，将该项目重新纳入管道，使巴布亚新几内亚液化天然气3号生产线再次被提上日程。

政府的支持仍然至关重要

毫无疑问，运营商和合作伙伴都希望推进回填项目，并在亚洲液化天然气需求中套现，当竞争项目签署有价值的长期合同时，袖手旁观并不有趣。但是，除非政府采取更多措施来激励回填机会，包括审查当前的上游激励措施和财政目标（印度尼西亚和巴布亚新几内亚）以及碳捕获（澳大利亚），否则开发商有可能错过机会。

由于上游企业将迎来盈利能力增强的时期，政府改善条件或提供额外支持的任何努力都可能在政治上出现波动。但从目前的情况来看，除非当地政府更努力地争夺未来的投资资金，否则亚太地区的液化天然气回填有可能输给卡塔尔、俄罗斯和美国等竞争对手。

在经济增长、支持天然气的政策和去碳化的推动下，亚洲的天然气需求增长看起来是有前途的。该地区开发自己的天然气资源以帮助满足这一需求的能力却不那么确定。对进口的依赖性上升是不可避免的，目前对新的长期液化天然气合同的渴望证实了这一点。

随着LNG价格达到创纪录的水平，亚洲买家渴望新的合同来满足激增的需求，为什么该地区的LNG回填项目没有成为投资的首选呢？

王佳晶 摘译自 伍德麦肯兹

原文如下：

The future of Asian LNG supply – backfill or bust

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the outlook for Asian gas demand is overwhelmingly positive. Despite ongoing pandemic restrictions, sky-high spot prices and rising competition from renewables, the region’s gas consumption will grow at almost 3% a year over the next decade. Peak demand doesn’t feature in our base case until beyond 2050, while in our 2-degree Accelerated Energy Transition scenario (AET-2), more rapid decarbonisation barely impacts Asian gas demand by 2040.

Asia’s biggest gas market challenge is now meeting demand. The near-certain long-term decline in regional gas production makes rising import dependency inevitable, future-proofing future Asian LNG demand: we expect imports to grow at a heady 3.7% a year over the next decade. Today, China is driving demand growth, while looking further forward, Southeast Asia and South Asia become the fastest growing LNG markets in the world.

As Asian demand has climbed, new long-term LNG contracting rebounded to its highest level in five years in 2021, with Asian buyers accounting for 85% of global contracting. Much of this newly contracted supply will come from Qatar and the US, plugging the fast-growing gap between Asian gas demand and declining indigenous supply across much of the region.

Any previous assumptions that Asia Pacific’s undeveloped and yet-to-find gas resources will fill much of the region’s emerging supply-demand gap have been poleaxed by weak E&A activity and low commercial conversion rates. In his recent Insight on Asia’s looming gas supply crisis, my colleague Angus Rodger sees a downside scenario where chronic underinvestment across Asian upstream projects could require up to a whopping 240 mmtpa of additional LNG by 2040 – almost double our base case supply-demand gap of 275 mmtpa by this time.

With LNG prices at record levels and Asia’s buyers hungry for new contracts to meet surging demand, why aren’t the region’s LNG backfill projects first in line for investment?

For Asia Pacific’s LNG backfill opportunities, time is of essence

With several undeveloped LNG backfill opportunities across Asia Pacific yet to be developed, the window of opportunity risks closing. Woodside and Santos showed what can be done with last year’s FIDs on the Scarborough/Pluto T2 expansion and the Barossa gas project to backfill Darwin LNG. But for two of the region’s oldest and largest LNG projects, the North West Shelf (NWS) in Australia and Bontang in Indonesia, progress on up to 15 mmtpa of potential backfill supply remains painfully slow. Backfill options at both projects are not low cost and for both major decisions loom: prioritise backfill developments or start shutting in trains.

As my colleague Daniel Toleman in our APAC Gas & LNG team repeatedly tells me, “Against a backdrop of record-high LNG prices and strong regional gas demand, time is of the essence.”

North West Shelf and Bontang – fighting to stay full

The NWS needs new supply to keep its five trains full, with third-party deals signed to date only a stopgap. But while a ‘best case’ outcome could see around 10 mmtpa of output being supported through backfills, all options present their own challenges. Browse, a leading backfill contender, looks unlikely to be developed this decade given high costs, environmental concerns and misalignment in the joint venture. And with CO2 levels up to 12%, carbon capture and storage will be a necessity, adding complexity and cost to an already tough project.

Among other options, the Clio-Acme fields are more likely to be prioritised to backfill Chevron’s Wheatstone project, given the company’s decision to sell its NWS stake and focus instead on this early life, core operated project. Recent reserves reductions at Woodside’s Wheatstone supply fields could also help get Clio-Acme moving.

Indonesia’s legacy Bontang project continues to face major uncertainties around existing supply. With issues at Eni’s Merakes and PERTAMINA’s Offshore Mahakam, East Kalimantan (Attaka) and Sanga Sanga PSCs, customers are already being asked to expect cargo deferrals or cancellations this year.

Looking to remedy this, fiscal incentives granted in 2021 to fields like Offshore Mahakam, together with soaring prices, should help PERTAMINA increase backfill drilling. Fighting a severe decline at Mahakam, we expect PERTAMINA to offer farm-in opportunities in 2022.

Elsewhere, continuing production issues at Merakes could threaten Eni's plans to boost supply to Bontang by 2023. If challenges persist, Eni will have to choose between infill drilling on Jangkrik to arrest decline or bring forward future tie-ins.

An outcome on Chevron’s sale of its Indonesian Deepwater Development (IDD) must come soon. On the market since 2019, a deal is realistically needed this year for IDD’s gas to replace declining output at Bontang before the end of this decade. A lot remains to be done, including agreement on price, government approval on a PSC extension and authorisation of a new development plan. Do not hold your breath.

Elsewhere, a wildcard for 2022 would be the government of Papua New Guinea agreeing to a deal with the ExxonMobil-led P'nyang gas joint venture to bring the project back into the pipeline, putting PNG LNG Train 3 on the table once more.

Government support remains critical

There is little doubt that operators and partners want to push backfill projects forwards and cash in on Asian LNG demand – watching from the sidelines as competing projects sign valuable long-term contracts is not much fun. But developers risk missing out unless governments do more to incentivise backfill opportunities, including reviewing current upstream incentives and fiscal goals (Indonesia and PNG) and carbon capture (Australia).

Because upstream companies are set for a period of increased profitability, any efforts by government to improve terms or provide additional support are likely to be politically volatile. But the way things currently stand, Asia Pacific’s LNG backfills risk losing out to rivals like Qatar, Russia and the US unless local regimes compete harder for future investment dollars.

Driven by economic growth, pro-gas policies and decarbonisation, Asian gas demand growth looks future-proofed. Far less certain is the region’s ability to develop its own gas resources to help meet this demand. Rising import dependency is now inevitable, confirmed by current appetite for new long-term LNG contracting.

With LNG prices at record levels and Asia’s buyers hungry for new contracts to meet surging demand, why aren’t the region’s LNG backfill projects first in line for investment?