石油市场将在2022年最终找到平衡？

据今日油价1月19日报道，EIA预计，随着需求持续增长，石油市场将出现供应紧张，这种情况可能会推高油价。另一方面，欧佩克预测石油市场将趋于平衡，甚至因此提高了产量配额。

尽管提高了配额，但欧佩克一直在努力实现其产量目标，然而，这增加了油价上涨压力。在开启新一年之际，预测2022年石油市场走向的竞赛正在进行。牛市和熊市预测了两条极其不同的道路，大家都认为这将是大石油公司动荡不安的一年。一种观点预测，随着生产恢复正常，石油需求稳定或减少，供应将恢复。在这种情况下，可以期待油价的稳定。另一种设想是，由于库存保持低位，需求增长将继续保持下去。

周二，美国能源信息署（EIA）将其油价展望提高了相当大的5美元/桶。然而，根据能源信息和分析公司报告，EIA 认为这些涨幅将在全年下降，因为全球供应最快将在第二季度超过需求。

然而，从长远来看，EIA预计石油需求将继续增长，即使在全球领导人和环保人士日益迫切的呼吁下，全球推动去碳化的力度继续加大。EIA预计，2022年全球石油需求将同比增加362万桶/天，比上个月《短期能源展望》增加7万桶/天。“如果这一预测成真，全球石油需求将最终超过2019年水平，这是自2020年最初几个月开始疫情爆发以来的首次，将超过2019年的水平约26万桶/天。”

欧佩克对2022年石油市场的预期甚至更加乐观（从石油卡特尔的角度，而不是上述环保人士的角度）。全球石油需求将超过疫情前的高点，达到每天1.01亿桶，甚至在今年12月超过每天1.03亿桶。然而，最终的预测纯属假设，因为全球经济和地缘政治的波动可能而且无疑会给工作带来麻烦。

那些预测石油市场疲软的人士指出，在今年冬天呼吁增加供应量以应对亚洲和欧洲遭受毁灭性打击的能源紧缺之后，石油供应过剩。然而，彭博社最近一篇评论文章对2022年石油市场疲软预测提出了异议，因为这种展望假定，欧佩克+集团19个有产出目标的成员将实际以这些速度供油。但是目前并没有做到，而且许多无法做到。 事实上，欧佩克已经连续七个月没有达到其产量配额。上个月，没有实现62.5万桶的集体目标。

彭博社的文章认为，这一差距不会很快缩小。事实上，除非欧佩克+联盟中那些有余力的国家被允许弥补那些没有余力国家的产量不足，否则供应缺口将永远不会被弥补回来。“这似乎不太可能。" 这一断言可能有些夸张，考虑到全世界对发展更清洁和可再生能源强有力的推动。

可以肯定的是，世界继续依赖化石燃料来实现其最基本的功能，而且发展中国家的需求将不可避免地继续快速增长。然而，能源市场正在发生协调一致的巨大变化，化石燃料的主导地位将不会继续受到挑战。然而，在2022年，石油需求将继续扩大，而石油价格可能会随之不断飙升。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Will Oil Markets Finally Find Balance In 2022?

The EIA is expecting a supply crunch in oil markets as demand continues to grow, a scenario which could push oil prices higher.

OPEC, on the other hand, is predicting a more balanced oil market, even raising output quotas as a result.

Despite raising quotas, OPEC has struggled to meet its production marks, however, adding upward pressure to oil prices.

As we kick off the new year, the race is on to predict the course that the oil market will take in 2022. The bulls and the bears are predicting two extremely divergent paths for what all agree is going to be a tumultuous year for Big Oil. One vision predicts that supply will recover as production returns to business as usual, and oil demand steadies or decreases. In this scenario, we can look forward to stabilized oil prices. The other vision is that demand growth will keep on keeping on as stockpiles remain low.

On Tuesday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its oil price outlook by a considerable $5 per barrel. However, true to the tumultuous shape the year is already taking, the EIA “sees those levels falling throughout the year as global supply outpaces demand as soon as the second quarter” according to reporting from energy information and analytics company S&P Global Platts.

In the long term, however, the EIA is expecting oil demand to keep growing, even as the global push for decarbonization continues to gain traction amidst increasingly urgent calls from global leaders and environmentalists. “The EIA expects global oil demand to increase 3.62 million [barrels a day] year on year in 2022, up 70,000 [barrels a day] from last month's Short-Term Energy Outlook.” If this projection comes to pass, global oil demand would finally top 2019 levels for the first time since the pandemic began in the early months of 2020, topping those numbers by approximately 260,000 barrels a day.

OPEC’s expectations for the 2022 oil market is even more optimistic (from an oil cartel’s point of view, not so much the aforementioned environmentalists). Their base case sees global oil demand topping pre-pandemic highs to the tune of 101 million barrels a day, and even surpassing 103 million barrels a day in December of this year. Projections and predictions, however, are purely hypothetical at the end of the day – and the volatility of global economics and geopolitics can and undoubtedly will throw a wrench or 20 into the works.

Those who are predicting a weak oil market point to surplus oil supplies, in the wake of increased production rates on the heels of this winter’s pleas for increased pumping to combat the energy crunch hitting Asia and Europe in devastating waves. A recent opinion column from Bloomberg, however, takes issue with projections of a weak oil market in 2022, because this outlook “assumes that the 19 members of the OPEC+ group who have output targets will actually pump at those rates. But they aren’t, and many of them can’t.” In fact, OPEC has fallen short of its production market for seven consecutive months. Last month, it missed its collective target by 625,000 barrels a day.

“That gap’s not going to close any time soon,” the Bloomberg article contends. “In fact, the deficit won’t ever be recouped unless those in the group with spare capacity are allowed to make up the production shortfalls of those without. This seems unlikely.” This assertion is likely hyperbolic, especially on any kind of extended guidelines, considering the very real push for the development of cleaner and renewable energy resources worldwide.

To be sure, the world continues to rely on fossil fuels for its most basic functions, and demand will inevitably continue to grow at a rapid clip in developing countries. However, there is a concerted sea change taking place in energy markets, and the dominance of fossil fuels will not remain unchallenged. In 2022, however, oil demand is set to keep expanding, and oil prices are likely going to keep soaring right along with it.