伍德麦肯兹: 2022年欧洲天然气市场非常关键

据伍德麦肯兹1月17日报道，自2021年以来，欧洲大陆一直处于一场供求危机中心，天然气供应的安全和灵活性，以及其在能源转型中的角色一直是欧盟首要议程。

1月16日，伍德麦肯兹发布了《欧洲天然气:2022年需要关注的5件事》报告，突出了未来几十年影响欧洲和全球天然气市场的关键领域。

一是将俄罗斯天然气输送至德国的北溪2号(Nord Stream 2)管道可能要过了第一季度才会启动，这意味着俄罗斯即便供气，在整个冬季的额外供应也有限。

在正常天气条件下，加上进口量较低，到3月底，欧洲库存将降至150亿立方米以下，这将创下历史新低。

随着春天临近，价格最终会下降，但对库存的需求将比今年增加200亿 - 250亿立方米。

欧洲天然气研究首席分析师Kateryna Filippenko表示，如果俄罗斯不增加出口，补充快要耗尽的库存和避免2021年危机重演的能力将是有限的。到目前为止，俄气一直不愿在现有线路上提供更多天然气，而北溪2号项目的启动仍是一个巨大未知数，因为俄气还正在寻求监管机构批准。欧洲寒冷天气可能会使情况进一步恶化，整个冬季天然气需求将增加到100亿立方米，除非俄罗斯提供更多的天然气，否则库存水平将降至零，而欧洲可能不得不利用缓冲天然气来平衡市场。包括亚洲在内冬季天气，以及北溪2号管道投产的可能性，将推动价格下跌，尽管存储需求(以及高碳成本)将使价格维持在15美元/百万英热以上。

二是在过去两年里，天然气储存在欧洲的重要性得到了充分证明。

2020年，存储能够吸收大量过剩供应，而在2021年，极高的天然气价格阻碍了整个夏季天然气购入，使得该地区冬季库存处于历史低位。

欧洲天然气研究首席分析师格雷厄姆•弗里德曼(Graham Freedman)表示，北半球异常寒冷的天气可能再次导致欧洲供应短缺。人们提出了一些问题，比如在所有天然气来源中，库存天然气的重要性，以及库存运营商和所有者在未来应如何获得资源。一项新的欧盟战略储存政策将要求对各国不同的法规进行彻底改革。意大利和匈牙利等地已经制定了成熟战略，在供应短缺情况下供应市场，其他地方则没有。因此，需要一个框架来确保整个行业的一致性。

三是在过去10年里，欧洲一直在从与石油相关的长期合约转向交易枢纽定价和现货市场。但目前的危机表明，这可能存在缺陷，即在地区影响因素中，供应的安全性和可承受性很重要。

今年欧洲将有约490亿立方米进口合同到期。其中，210亿立方米将是俄罗斯管道合同。其中一些合同将不会延长，如PGNIG与俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)的100亿立方米合同，因为波兰正在远离俄罗斯的天然气。

欧洲天然气研究研究分析师Penny Leake表示，随着北溪2号管道启动，我们可能会看到一些新的长期合同根据管道沿线走向而陆续签订。对俄罗斯长期风险敞口的潜在担忧，再加上对供应安全和多样化的危机引发担忧，可能会推动更多企业转向液化天然气合约。

到2025、2026年，石油指数、Henry Hub长期液化天然气合同的价格将较当地现货价格有相当大的折扣，这使它们成为欧洲企业一个有吸引力的选择。但是，关于这些合同价格和结构的谈判将是复杂的。公用事业公司若要利用当前现货价格溢价，将需要承诺长期合约，而现货溢价可能存在风险。

四是能源危机让人们注意到国内天然气生产的重要性，以及未来几十年欧洲需要天然气的前景。

创纪录的天然气价格促使天然气生产商优先考虑能够立即提供灵活性的天然气开发，未来几年致密气市场前景可能会恢复对新天然气供应选择的投资。

欧洲天然气研究副研究员康纳•麦金尼表示，一些运营商可能会认为，对于他们的项目来说，这是“机不可失，时不再来”的，尤其是受到可能出现的高油价启发。挪威去年提供临时税收方案将鼓励更多外国投资，包括King Lear、Asterix、Dvalin North和Linnorm。通过增加Troll和Oseberg许可来最大化灵活产量也将是一个重点，一些运营商可能会优先考虑天然气销售而不是天然气回流，比如Gina Krog的挪国油。尽管由于英国ESG压力，新的外国直接投资不确定性更大，但预计未来几年持续的市场紧张可能会影响欧洲其他地区决策。在罗马尼亚，自2019年以来，巨大的neptune Deep项目FID开发进程一直被推迟，主要原因是财政和监管状况恶化。它有潜力在高原地区每年生产超过60亿立方米天然气，并将罗马尼亚转变为一个净天然气出口国，但要实现这一点，财政和监管方面改善是必须的。高油价的长期前景可能会进一步鼓励罗马尼亚加快改革步伐。

五是2021年年底，欧盟委员会(European Commission)发布了一份新的欧盟分类提案，将高效、有增无减的燃气发电厂归类为过渡性投资，这可能是全球天然气行业关键时刻。

专家顾问可在1月21日前提出反馈意见，这可能导致对拟议案文的修改。

欧洲天然气研究副研究员克莱尔·斯宾塞表示，目前，金融和非金融投资者将能够通过投资天然气来提高企业的“绿色评分”，包括欧洲以外的地区，信息披露将是关键。其他发展类似分类的国家也会大胆地将天然气纳入其中，尤其是在煤炭仍占主导地位的亚洲市场。然而，欧盟承认天然气发电厂是一种过渡性投资，并不是天然气行业的灵丹妙药。

伍德麦肯兹预测，天然气价格将需要下降，以适应天然气投资的增加。

到2030年，有建设许可证的设施拟议二氧化碳排放上限为270克/千瓦时，同时承诺到2026年使用至少30%的可再生或低碳气体，到2035年使用100%，这意味着，如果燃气发电厂被列为过渡发电厂，则需要随着时间推移减少传统天然气使用。

即使欧盟将天然气发电厂投资归类为过渡投资，欧盟对天然气的使用也将减少。

王佳晶 摘译自 伍德麦肯兹

原文如下：

Wood Mackenzie: Key things to watch in the European gas market for 2022

The continent has been at the centre of a supply and demand crisis since last year, placing the security and flexibility of gas supply as well as its role in the energy transition top of the EU’s agenda.

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk business released the Europe Gas: 5 things to look out for in 2022 report yesterday, highlighting key areas to watch which will shape the European and global gas markets for decades to come.

1. The start-up of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline bringing Russian gas to Germany might now be past 1Q22, meaning limited additional Russian supplies through the winter period, if any. 

At normal weather conditions and with low Russian imports, European storage inventories will dropbelow 15 billion m3 by the end of March – a record low.

Prices will eventually come down as spring approaches, but requirements to refill storage facilities will be high at 20 - 25 billion m3 more than this year.

Kateryna Filippenko, Principal Analyst, European gas research, said: 

Without additional Russian imports, the ability to refill depleted storage and to avoid a repeat of last year’s crisis will be limited

But Gazprom has so far been reluctant to make more gas available on the existing routes and the start-up of Nord Stream 2 remains the big unknown as Gazprom navigates regulatory approvals

Cold weather in Europe could exacerbate the situation further, adding up to 10 billion m3 to gas demand through the rest of the winter, pushing storage levels to zero unless more Russian gas is supplied, and Europe may have to tap into cushion gas to balance the market

Normal winter weather, including in Asia, and visibility on Nord Stream 2 commissioning would push prices down, although demand for storage (and high carbon costs) will maintain prices above $15 mmbtu

2. Over the last 2 years the importance of gas storage in Europe has been demonstrated to the full. 

In 2020, storage was able to absorb a large excess in supply whereas in 2021, extremely high gas pricing discouraged the injection of gas through summer leaving the region with historically low inventories for the winter.

Graham Freedman, principal analyst, European gas research, said: 

Exceptionally cold weather in the Northern Hemisphere could again leave Europe with a supply deficit

Questions are being raised about the importance of having gas storage in the overall mix of sources, and how storage operators and owners should be rewarded in the future

A new EU strategic storage policy will require an overhaul of regulations which significantly vary from country to country

Places such as Italy and Hungary already have well-established strategies to supply the market in the event of a supply shortage, others do not

Therefore, a framework is required to ensure consistency across the industry

3. In the last decade, Europe has been moving away from long-term oil-linked contracts towards hub pricing and spot market. 

But the current crisis has shown that this path can have drawbacks – security and affordability of supply foremost among those which could impact the region.

about 49 billion m3 of import contracts into Europe will expire this year. 

Out of these, 21 billion m3 will be Russian piped contracts. 

Some of these will not be extended such as PGNIG’s 10 billion m3 contract with Gazprom as Poland moves away from Russian gas.

Penny Leake, Research Analyst, European gas research, said:

With the possible start-up of Nord Stream 2, we may see some new long-term contracts signed along the pipeline’s route

Potential concerns over the long-term exposure to Russia, coupled with the crisis-driven worries over supply security and diversification, may push more players towards LNG contracting

Both oil-indexed and Henry Hub plus long-term LNG contracts will be at a considerable discount to local spot prices through to 2025/6, making them an attractive option for European players

But negotiations over the prices and structures of these contracts will be complicated

Utility companies will need to commit to a long-term duration contract if they are to take advantage of the current spot price premium, which could prove risky

4.The energy crisis has drawn attention to the importance of domestic production and the prospect of Europe requiring gas for decades to come.

Record prices pushed gas producers to prioritise gas developments that can provide immediate flexibility, and the prospect of tight gas market in the coming years may revive investments into new gas supply options.

Conner McKinney, Research Associate, European gas research said: 

Some operators may see this time as ‘now or never’ for their projects, particularly inspired by the possibility of high prices. Temporary tax packages offered in Norway last year will encourage more FIDs including King Lear, Asterix, Dvalin North and Linnorm

Maximising flexible production through increased permits for Troll and Oseberg will also be a focus and some operators may prioritise gas sales over gas reinjection, like Equinor at Gina Krog

While new FIDs are more uncertain due to ESG pressures in the UK, the sustained market tightness expected over the next few years may impact decision-making in other parts of Europe

In Romania, progress towards FID for the giant Neptun Deep project has been delayed since 2019, not least by fiscal and regulatory deterioration

It has the potential to produce more than 6 billion m3 a year at plateau and transform Romania to a net gas exporter, but for this to materialise, fiscal and regulatory improvements are required

The prolonged prospect of high prices could further encourage Romania’s government to speed up change

5. At the end of last year, the European Commission published a new EU taxonomy proposal classifying efficient unabated gas-fired power plants as transitional investments, which could be a moment of truth for the global gas industry.

Expert advisers have until 21 January to provide feedback which may result in changes to the proposed text.

Claire Spencer, Research Associate, European gas research, stated:

As it stands, financial and non-financial investors will be able to increase their corporate ‘green scoring’ by investing in gas, including outside Europe, disclosure will be key

Other countries developing similar taxonomies would be emboldened to include gas too, particularly in Asian markets where coal still dominates

However, the EU recognition of gas power plants as a transitional investment is no panacea for the gas industry

Wood Mackenzie predicts that gas prices will need to come down to accommodate increased investment in gas use. 

The proposed CO2 emission cap of 270 Gr. per kWh for facilities that have a construction permit by 2030, alongside the commitment to use at least 30% of renewable or low carbon gas by 2026 and 100% by 2035, means that the use of conventional natural gas would need to reduce over time if a gas-fired power plant is to be classified as transitional. 

The use of unabated natural gas in the EU is set to decline, even if the EU classifies investments in gas-fired plants as transitional investments.