高盛称大宗商品进入10年超级周期

据油价网1月12日消息，在市场消化周三的通胀数据之际，所有人的目光都将集中在美联储对通胀数据的反应上。许多经济学家预计，消费者价格指数(cpi)将上涨7%，创下39年来的新高。包括股票和比特币在内的许多市场今年都承受了压力，因为市场预期美联储可能会比此前预期的更早、更频繁地加息。

专家认为通胀上升是今年最大的市场风险之一，因为通胀失控可能会侵蚀资产价值，限制购买力，侵蚀企业利润。在一份研究报告中,高盛的Jan Hatzius警告说, 美国劳动力市场的快速进展和 12 月 14 日至 15 日联邦公开市场委员会在几分钟内发出的强硬信号表明正常化速度加快，央行可能会在今年加息四次，并在 7 月或更早开始其资产负债表径流过程。

但大宗商品行业完全不同。

大宗商品在2021年的表现优于其他资产类别，人们普遍预计到2022年仍将保持竞争力。

事实上，高盛大宗商品研究全球主管杰弗里•柯里(Jeffrey Currie)重申了他早些时候的观点，称我们仅仅处于长达10年的大宗商品超级周期的第一轮。

柯里在美国全国广播公司财经频道(CNBC)的“Squawk Box”节目中分析了油价的最新走势，他说，包括石油和金属在内的大宗商品市场的基本面仍然令人难以置信地看涨。

据这位分析师称，石油市场目前存在2%的巨大需求缺口，库存比5年移动平均水平低5%左右。他继续说，金融机构提供了更多的支持，因为化石燃料仍然不受投资领域的青睐，而ESG（环境、社会和治理）的逆风对该行业构成了重大挑战，如果生产要跟上需求，就迫切需要新的投资。

瑞银(UBS)分析师重申了这一点，“相对于油价，该行业看起来很便宜。自由现金流收益率非常有吸引力，资本纪律得到改善，随着需求复苏，该行业应该会受益。”

铜是新的石油

柯里还表示，在过去几年中，资本完全重新定向，这在很大程度上是由于石油和天然气行业的低回报，资金流正在远离旧世界经济对石油、煤炭、采矿等领域的投资方式，以及可再生能源和 ESG——现在需求不平衡正在暴露出来。

这位高盛大宗商品专家补充称，股票估值过高和国债收益率较低，令大宗商品对那些对市场的高风险心存警惕、但仍在寻找可观回报的投资者更具吸引力。换句话说，大宗商品不仅在纯回报基础上提供了良好的前景，而且还可以很好地对冲不断增长的市场波动。

高盛继续看好原油价格，并将布伦特原油价格预期从之前的80美元/桶上调至90美元/桶。

但柯里关于金属行业的评论可能会吸引更多ESG和清洁能源投资者的注意。这位分析师表示，目前大宗商品超级周期的最大受益者是金属，他将金属与本世纪头十年的石油进行了比较，这主要得益于绿色资本支出。柯里说，ESG和清洁能源转型是巨大的，几乎世界上所有国家都在同时追求清洁能源目标，这使得铜成为这个周期中最重要的商品之一。

事实上，柯里已经宣布铜是新的石油，并指出铜在全球脱碳战略中绝对不可或缺的地位，因为铜的短缺已经出现。

其他著名的清洁能源专家也同意柯里的观点。

新能源研究机构彭博新能源财经(BNEF)表示，能源转型是推动下一个大宗商品超级周期的原因，科技制造商、能源交易商和投资者前景广阔。事实上，BNEF估计，未来30年，全球转型将需要173万亿美元的能源供应和基础设施投资，预计到2050年，可再生能源将提供我们能源需求的85%。

清洁能源技术比化石燃料技术需要更多的金属。根据最近的《欧亚评论》分析, 在净零排放情景下，铜、镍、钴和锂的价格可能会在前所未有的持续时间内达到历史峰值,生产总值上升超过2021年 - 2040年期间的4倍,甚至足以媲美原油产品的总价值。

在净零排放的情况下，金属需求的激增可能导致金属生产价值增加四倍以上——在接下来的20年里，仅这四种金属就累计价值13万亿美元。这可能会与同期净零排放情景下的石油产量估值相媲美，从而使这四种金属在宏观上与通胀、贸易和产出相关，并为大宗商品生产商带来可观的意外之财。

长期油价展望

渣打银行的大宗商品专家发布了最新的大宗商品数据，他们预计中期需求增长和非欧佩克国家的供应增长都将放缓。

渣打银行预计，根据已宣布和可能的政府政策，2026年的平均需求为1.065亿桶/天，这将使需求远远高于国际能源署(IEA)的净零排放路径，到2030年需求降至7840万桶/天。

此外，分析师表示，从2023年到2026年，所有520万桶/天的新增需求可能来自非经合组织国家，经合组织预测2026年的平均需求为4580万桶/天，比2019年减少190万桶/天，比2005年的峰值低430万桶/天。

分析师表示，与 2024 年及以后相比，2022 年和 2023 年对欧佩克来说可能更具挑战。在2022年和2023年期间，对欧佩克的需求增加为140万桶/天。对看涨石油的人来说，幸运的是，在2023年之后，前景变得更加严峻，从2023年到2026年，对欧佩克的需求增加320万桶/天。

渣打银行将2022年布伦特原油价格预测上调8美元/桶至75美元/桶，将2023年布伦特原油价格预测上调17美元/桶至77美元/桶。

裘寅 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Goldman Sachs Calls 10-Year Commodity Supercycle

While the markets digest the inflation numbers on Wednesday, all eyes will be focussed on the Federal Reserve's reaction to the inflation data. Many economists expected the 7% gain in the Consumer Price Index, marking a 39-year high. Many markets, including stocks and bitcoin, have come under pressure this year on expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates sooner and more frequently than earlier anticipated.

Experts consider rising inflation one of the biggest market risks this year because runaway inflation could corrode asset values, limit buying power and eat away at corporate margins. In a research note, Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius has warned that rapid progress in the U.S. labor market and hawkish signals in minutes from the Dec. 14-15 Federal Open Market Committee suggest faster normalization, with the central bank now likely to raise interest rates four times this year and start its balance sheet runoff process in July, if not earlier.

But the commodities sector is a different beast altogether.

Commodities outperformed other asset classes in 2021 and are widely expected to remain competitive in 2022.

Indeed, Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research Jeffrey Currie has reiterated his earlier call saying we are merely at the first innings of a decade-long commodity supercycle.

Speaking at CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to break down the latest moves in oil prices, Currie says the fundamental setup in the commodities complex, including oil and metals, remains incredibly bullish.

According to the analyst, the oil markets are currently in a big deficit of 2% of global demand, with inventories about 5% below their 5-year moving average. He goes on to say the financial set up offers even more support since fossil fuels remain out of favor with the investing universe while ESG headwinds pose a major challenge for a sector that badly needs new investments if production is to keep up with demand.

It's a point that has been reiterated by UBS analysts, "relative to oil prices, the sector looks cheap. Free cash flow yields are very attractive, capital discipline has improved, and the sector should benefit as demand recovers."

Copper is the new oil

Currie also says that there has been a complete redirection of capital over the past few years due in large part to poor returns in the oil and gas sector, with flows moving away from old-world economy investing style in things like oil, coal, mining, and towards renewables and ESG-- and now there is a demand imbalance is being exposed.

The GS commodities expert adds that stretched equity valuations and low Treasury yields make commodities even more attractive for investors wary of the high risks in these markets but still hunting for decent returns. In other words, commodities not only offer good prospects on a pure return basis but can also be a good hedge against growing market volatility.

Goldman Sachs continues its bullish tone on crude prices, and has hiked its Brent crude price forecast to $90/bbl from an earlier $80/bbl.

But it's Currie's remarks about the metals sector that will probably catch the attention of ESG and clean energy investors more. According to the analyst, the biggest beneficiary of the ongoing commodity supercycle are metals, which he has compared to oil in the 2000s thanks mainly to green capex. Currie says the ESG and clean energy transition is massive, with nearly all of the world's nations pursuing clean energy goals at the same time, making copper one of the most important commodities of this cycle.

Indeed, Currie has declared copper as the new oil, noting it's absolutely indispensable in global decarbonization strategies with copper shortages already being felt.

Other notable clean energy experts share Currie's views.

New energy research outfit Bloomberg New Energy Finance says the energy transition is responsible for driving the next commodity supercycle, with immense prospects for technology manufacturers, energy traders, and investors. Indeed, BNEF estimates that the global transition will require ~$173 trillion in energy supply and infrastructure investment over the next three decades, with renewable energy expected to provide 85% of our energy needs by 2050.

Clean energy technologies require more metals than their fossil fuel-based counterparts. 

According to a recent Eurasia Review analysis, prices for copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium could reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario, with the total value of production rising more than four-fold for the period 2021-2040, and even rivaling the total value of crude oil production.

In the net-zero emissions scenario, the metals demand boom could lead to a more than fourfold increase in the value of metals production–totaling $13 trillion accumulated over the next two decades for the four metals alone. This could rival the estimated value of oil production in a net-zero emissions scenario over that same period, making the four metals macro-relevant for inflation, trade, and output, and providing significant windfalls to commodity producers.   

Long-Term Oil Price Outlook

Commodity experts at Standard Chartered have released their latest commodities update wherein they expect a medium-term deceleration in both demand growth and non-OPEC supply growth. 

Stanchart has projected demand to average 106.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, based on announced and likely government policies, which would leave demand well above the International Energy Agency (IEA) net-zero emission path, in which demand falls to 78.4mb/d by 2030.

Further, the analysts say all the incremental 5.2mb/d of demand from 2023 to 2026 is likely to come from non-OECD countries, with OECD demand forecast to average 45.8mb/d in 2026, 1.9mb/d less than in 2019 and 4.3mb/d below its 2005 peak.

The analysts say 2022 and 2023 are likely to be more of a challenge for OPEC than 2024 and beyond. The increase in the call on OPEC across 2022 and 2023 is put at 1.4mb/d. Luckily for the oil bulls, the outlook becomes tighter after 2023, with the call on OPEC increasing by 3.2mb/d from 2023 to 2026.

Stanchart has raised its 2022 Brent forecast USD 8/bbl to USD 75/bbl and its 2023 Brent forecast USD 17/bbl to USD 77/bbl.