据美国钻井网站2022年1月7日报道，惠誉解决方案国家风险和行业研究机构发布了其最新的多年油价预测，这个预测将持续到2026年。
根据最新预测，惠誉解决方案国家风险和行业研究机构预计今年布伦特原油均价将达到72美元/桶，2023年将达到73美元/桶，2024年将达到75美元/桶，2025年和2026年均将达到78美元/桶。
惠誉解决方案国家风险和行业研究机构的这一预测与彭博共识大致一致。彭博共识在报告中强调，今年布伦特原油的平均价格将达到每桶73美元，2023年将达到每桶73.4美元，2024年将达到每桶74.7美元，2025年将达到每桶69.9美元。 2026年的预测并不包括在内。
惠誉解决方案国家风险和行业研究机构的分析师在本周早些时候提交给美国钻井网站中的一份报告中表示：“去年12月我们再次将2022年布伦特原油价格预测维持在72美元/桶的水平，同时我们认为全年供应过剩的情况将保持不变。”
“前景仍然受制于供求双方的多重风险。 尽管奥密克戎变种在全球引发了前所未有的高感染率，但到目前为止，住院率仍处于可控范围内，与早期德尔塔变种相比，出现严重疾病的可能性似乎更小。”
分析人士继续说：“各国对新疫情的反应各不相同，许多国家实施了软性封锁和旅行限制，这在很大程度上影响了航空需求。”
惠誉解决方案国家风险和行业研究分析师在报告中指出，供应仍然不确定，考虑到需求的不确定性，欧佩克+紧缩政策的潜在转变是一个风险。
撰写本文时，布伦特原油价格为每桶82.72美元。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
Analyst Releases Latest Multi-Year Oil Price Forecast
Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has released its latest multi-year oil price forecast, which stretches to 2026.
According to its latest projections, the company now sees the average price of Brent hitting $72 per barrel this year, $73 per barrel in 2023, $75 per barrel in 2024, and $78 per barrel in both 2025 and 2026.
The forecast is roughly in line with the Bloomberg Consensus. The Bloomberg Consensus highlighted in the report projects that the average price of Brent will come in at $73 per barrel in 2022, $73.4 per barrel in 2023, $74.7 per barrel in 2024, and $69.9 per barrel in 2025. A forecast for 2026 is not included.
“This month we again hold our Brent price forecast for 2022 steady at $72 per barrel with our narrative for oversupply to build throughout the year remaining intact,” analysts at Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research stated in the report, which was sent to Rigzone earlier this week.
“However, the outlook remains subject to multiple risks on both the supply and demand-side fronts. While the Omicron variant is fueling new all-time high infection rates across the globe, so far hospitalization rates remain manageable and severe illness is appearing less likely than with earlier variants,” the analysts added in the report.
“However, the national responses to the new outbreaks have been mixed, with many implementing soft lockdowns and travel restrictions, largely impacting aviation demand,” the analysts continued.
Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research analysts noted in the report that supply also remains uncertain, with a potential shift in OPEC+ tapering policy a risk given the uncertainty in demand.
At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil stood at $82.72 per barrel.
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