据美国钻井网站2022年2月10日报道，美国的石油和天然气产量增长将在2022年加速。
这是根据全球著名咨询公司Enverus情报研究公司（EIR）最新的基本报告得出的结论，该报告概述称，今年美国石油日产量增长将超过90万桶，天然气日产量增长将超过40亿立方英尺。
报告强调，由于在用钻机数的温和增长，供应链的不利因素将部分油气产量增长推迟到今年下半年。 该报告预测，美国在用钻机数将从目前的640部左右，在第一季度末达到660部左右的峰值。
EIR在发给美国钻井网站Rigzone的一份声明中指出：“对于这两种大宗商品，我们预计美国油气产量的强劲增长将使其价格相对于当前的剥离水平下降，尽管地缘政治紧张局势和欧佩克停产给布伦特和WTI原油价格带来了上行风险。”
报告还称：“由于油价走弱和基础下跌加速，美国的油气日产量增长将在2023年减速，至约30万桶和10亿立方英尺，在用钻机数量将温和降至约560部。”
根据该报告，北美供应强劲增长，加上季节性需求减弱，应该会在今年上半年引发全球原油和石油产品库存增加。 EIR预计，在同一时期内，石油产量的增加将把油价拉至每桶70美元左右，并认为欧佩克将在中期内把油价维持在每桶70美元左右。
EIR在声明中表示：“如果油价持续低于这一水平，我们预计欧佩克将在中期内管理产量，把油价维持在每桶70美元左右。”
根据2月8日发布的美国能源信息署(EIA)最新短期能源展望(STEO)报告， 去年11月，美国原油平均日产量达到近1180万桶。
EIA强调，这是自2020年4月以来任何一个月的最高产量，并在其最新的STEO报告中预测，今年美国石油平均日产量将增至1200万桶，明年将增至1260万桶。 根据EIA的数据，这将是创纪录的年度平均产量，EIA指出，此前的年度石油平均日产量为1230万桶，是在2019年创下的。
2月早些时候，渣打银行强调，去年第四季度美国石油产量激增，但石油市场和石油分析师基本上没有注意到这一点。 根据渣打银行当时发给Rigzone的一份研究报告中公布的数据，去年下半年美国日均增加了90万桶石油供应。 数据显示，只有沙特阿拉伯产量更高，而美国的表现轻松超过了俄罗斯、加拿大、伊拉克、挪威、阿联酋和英国等国家。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
USA Oil and Gas Production Growth to Accelerate
U.S. oil and gas production growth will accelerate in 2022.
That’s according to Enverus Intelligence Research’s latest Fundamental Edge report, which outlined that oil output growth would rise above around 900,000 barrels per day and gas output growth would rise above around four billion cubic feet per day.
Supply chain headwinds defer some of this growth until the second half of the year as the rig count rises modestly, the report highlighted. The report forecasts that the rig count will peak at around 660 late in the first quarter, from around 640 today.
“For both commodities, we expect this strong U.S. production growth to bring prices down relative to current strip levels, although geopolitical tensions and OPEC outages present upside risk to Brent and WTI,” Enverus Intelligence Research noted in a statement sent to Rigzone.
“As prices weaken and base declines accelerate, U.S. production growth decelerates in 2023, to [around] 300,000 barrels per day and [around] one billion cubic feet per day, and rig counts moderate to [around] 560,” the statement added.
According to the report, robust North American supply growth along with seasonal demand weakening should trigger a global crude and product inventories build in the first half of this year. This build will pull oil prices into the mid-$70s during the same time period, Enverus Intelligence Research projected, adding that it believes OPEC will manage supply to maintain around a $70 per barrel Brent price floor for the medium term.
“If prices fall below that level for a sustained period, we expect the cartel will manage production to maintain price in the mid-$70s for the medium term,” Enverus Intelligence Research said in the statement.
U.S. crude oil production reached almost 11.8 million barrels per day in November 2021, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on February 8.
The EIA, which highlighted that was the most production in any month since April 2020, forecasted in its latest STEO that output will rise to an average of 12 million barrels per day in 2022 and 12.6 million barrels per day in 2023. This would be record-high production on an annual-average basis, according to the EIA, which noted that the previous annual average record of 12.3 million barrels per day was set in 2019.
Earlier this month, Standard Chartered highlighted that a surge in U.S. oil output in the fourth quarter of 2021 had gone largely unnoticed by the oil market and oil analysts. According to data published in a Standard Chartered research note sent to Rigzone at the time, the U.S. added over 900,000 barrels per day to supply in the second half of last year. only Saudi Arabia produced more and the U.S. comfortably outperformed countries such as Russia, Canada, Iraq, Norway, the UAE and the UK, the data showed.
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