美国页岩面临的下一个大问题

• 美国去年第四季度石油产量增长加快。  

• 美国石油行业较高的资本支出很大一部分是由于成本膨胀。  

• 尽管成本上涨，但大型油服公司仍乐观地认为，行业多年的上升周期已经开始。

据美国油价网报道，今年美国石油生产商将增加资本支出和活动，但随着成本压力加剧，美国石油生产商将不得不应对通胀飙升。

达拉斯联邦储备银行去年第四季度进行的能源调查的结果显示，尽管第四季度石油产量增加加快，但油服公司的成本连续第三个季度大幅飙升，创下历史新高，“这暗示了油服公司面临巨大的成本压力”。

今年，美国石油行业较高的资本支出将部分归因于成本膨胀。 这将不是增加支出中最大的一部分，但与前两年的节俭支出相比，今年的总体资本支出将有所增加。

由于许多已开钻但未完钻(DUC)的井在去年全年都已耗尽，各公司在DUC井库存耗尽之前基本上都没有开钻新井，因此该行业将不得不在今年加大钻井投入。  

能源经济和金融分析研究所(IEEFA)石油和天然气分析师雷·考恩和能源金融分析师克拉克·威廉姆斯-德里警告说，“仅仅为了维持与去年相同的产量水平，把快速成本膨胀加进来，资本支出可能会增加近20%。”

成本压力  

考恩和威廉姆斯-德里指出：“这些成本增加将首先落在油服公司身上，油服公司可能无法将成本转嫁给生产商。”

达拉斯联邦储备银行的调查结果显示，72.1%的油气支持服务公司报告第四季度投入成本增加，而只有2.3%的公司报告投入成本下降。 与此同时，调查中65.1%的油服公司的服务价格保持不变。  

IEEFA的分析师表示，这些油田服务公司可能会承担不成比例的成本增长份额。

挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）在去年11月发表的一份分析报告中表示：“勘探和生产公司普遍认为，今年的井成本通涨幅度可能在5%-15%之间，根据运营商的关注点和可用服务提供商的情况，今年还有很多需要注意的地方。”

IEEFA表示：“在不同的运营商中，钢铁、劳动力和燃料都被列为今年特别关注的领域，这将是井成本上升的最大原因。”

然而，许多勘探和生产公司都指出，持续的效率提高可能会抵消成本上升。

雪佛龙公司首席财务官皮埃尔·布列柏在日前举行的收益电话会议上表示：“我们将继续管理我们的成本，我们认为，在二叠纪盆地和我们的投资组合中，我们的成本管理得非常好。 我们在去年12月公布的资本预算中，预计销货成本会有一些增长，增幅为低的个位数。”雪佛龙公司首席执行官迈克·沃思在电话中指出，“在二叠纪盆地，我们可能会看到成本多一些，这是非常可控的，我们认为我们可以用效率来抵消它。与去年相比，今年雪佛龙公司在二叠纪盆地的产量将增长大约10%。”

资本支出和产量增加  

埃克森美孚公司首席执行官达伦·伍兹日前表示，从2020年到2021年，该公司二叠纪盆地的油气产量增加了25%以上，并补充道：“我们预计，今年二叠纪盆地的油气产量将再增加25%。”  

埃克森美孚公司去年在二叠纪盆地的油气日产量增加了近10万桶油当量，达到了大约46万桶油当量。  

计划提高美国页岩盆地核心资产油气产量的公司不仅仅是埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龙公司。

根据达拉斯联邦储备银行的调查，44%的高管表示，他们预计今年的资本支出将小幅增加，另有31%的高管预计今年的资本支出将比去年大幅增加。

在去年12月进行的调查中，88家勘探和生产公司中有49%的公司将“增产”作为今年的主要目标。  

然而，油气日产量低于1万桶的小型公司更倾向于提高产量，而只有24%的大型勘探和生产公司将这一提高产量目标作为首要目标。 调查显示，小企业最常选择的回答是“增加产量”，而大企业最常选择的回答是“减少债务”。  

尽管面临成本压力，但顶级油服提供商仍保持乐观

尽管成本上升，但一些大型油服公司仍然乐观地认为，油田服务行业多年的上升周期已经开始。  

以美国最大的页岩领域服务提供商哈里伯顿公司为例，哈里伯顿公司董事长兼首席执行官杰夫·米勒表示，“尽管存在通胀压力，但由于油服活动改善，该公司的完井和生产部门在去年结束时的营业利润率为15%。”

米勒在1月份曾表示，“我对这种持续多年的上升周期感到兴奋。 我预计宏观行业环境将保持支持性，国际和北美市场将继续同步增长。”

斯伦贝谢公司首席执行官奥利维尔·勒·佩奇在1月份的收益电话会议上表示，今年通货膨胀将更为严重，而且在某些盆地的某些地区更为明显，但这是一种市场状况，也是“我们一直要面对的问题”。  

佩奇补充说，“进入2022年，更具体地说，我们预计在北美的资本支出将增加至少20%，这将影响陆上和海上市场，而在国际上，资本支出预计将处于低到中等程度的增加。”

尽管页岩探区正在提高资本支出和产量，但它还必须应对成本上升的问题，如果不能被效率提高所抵消，那么成本上升可能消耗掉那些在去年享有创纪录现金流的生产商的今年利润率。  

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

The Next Big Problem For U.S. Shale

·     U.S. oil production growth picked up the pace in the fourth quarter.

·     A big part of the higher capital spending in the U.S. oil industry will be because of cost inflation.

·     Despite cost inflation, the largest oilfield service firms are optimistic that a multi-year upcycle in the industry has begun.

U.S. oil producers are raising capital spending and activity this year, but they have to contend with surging inflation as cost pressures intensify. 

While oil production growth picked up the pace in the fourth quarter, costs jumped sharply for a third consecutive quarter to a record-high reading among oilfield services firms "suggestive of significant cost pressures," the Dallas Fed Energy Survey for Q4 found. 

In 2022, part of the higher capital spending in the U.S. oil industry will be because of cost inflation. This will not be the highest portion of the increased expenditure, but it will contribute to an overall higher capex this year compared to the previous two years of frugal spending. 

As many of the drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells have been exhausted throughout 2021 when companies largely abstained from new well drilling until they go through the DUC inventory, the industry will have to spend more on drilling in 2022. 

"Add rapid cost inflation into the mix, and capital spending could rise by almost 20 percent just to maintain production at the same level as last year," warned the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) oil and gas analyst Trey Cowan, and energy finance analyst Clark Williams-Derry. 

Cost Pressures 

"These cost increases will land first on oilfield service firms—who may not be able to pass the costs on to producers," Cowan and Williams-Derry noted. 

A total of 72.1 percent of oil and gas support service firms reported an increase in input costs in Q4, compared to just 2.3 percent that reported a decrease in input costs, according to the Dallas Fed survey. At the same time, the prices received for the services remained unchanged for 65.1 percent of the oilfield service firms in the survey. 

The services firms could bear a disproportionate share of the cost increases, IEEFA's analysts said. 

"The general E&P consensus for well cost inflation in 2022 appears to be anywhere from 5-15%, with many caveats across the board depending on the focus of the operator and the landscape of available service providers," Rystad Energy said in an analysis in November. 

"Across the various operators, steel, labor and fuel were all flagged as areas of special concern in 2022 that would contribute the most to rising well costs," the energy research firm said. 

However, many E&P companies have pointed to continued efficiency gains as potential offsets to rising costs.  

"We continue to manage our costs, we think, very well in the Permian and across our portfolio. Our capital budget, which we announced in December, expected some COGS increase, modest in the low single digits. And what we might be seeing a little bit more than that in the Permian, it's very manageable and we think we can offset it with efficiencies," Chevron's CFO Pierre Breber said on the earnings call last week. During the call, CEO Mike Wirth noted that Chevron's production in the Permian would rise by around 10 percent this year compared to 2021. 

Capex And Production Rising

ExxonMobil, for its part, grew its Permian production from 2020 to 2021 by over 25 percent, CEO Darren Woods said this week, adding that "Our expectation, as we go into 2022, is to grow another 25%."

Exxon's 2021 production in the Permian rose by nearly 100,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day to around 460,000 boepd. 

It's not only Exxon and Chevron that plan higher production in their core assets in the U.S. shale patch. 

Per Dallas Fed's survey, 44 percent of executives said they expect capital spending to increase slightly, while an additional 31 percent anticipate a significant increase in capex this year compared to 2021. 

A total of 49 percent of 88 E&P firms polled in the survey in December pointed to "grow production" as their primary goal in 2022. 

However, small firms—those producing less than 10,000 bpd—are more inclined to boost production, while this goal was cited as primary at only 24 percent of large E&P firms. The most-selected response among small firms was "grow production," while the most-selected response among large firms was "reduce debt," the survey showed. 

Top Oilfield Service Providers Upbeat Despite Cost Pressures

Despite cost inflation, the largest oilfield service firms are optimistic that a multi-year upcycle in the industry has begun.  

Halliburton, for example—the top provider of services in the U.S. shale patch—saw its completion and production division finish 2021 with a 15 percent operating margin, "driven by activity improvement despite inflationary pressures," chairman and CEO Jeff Miller said. 

"I am excited about the accelerating multi-year upcycle. I expect the macro industry environment to remain supportive and the international and North America markets to continue their simultaneous growth," Miller said last month.

Inflation is more acute, and it's more pronounced in some parts of some basins, but it's a market condition and "something that we always deal with," Schlumberger's CEO Olivier Le Peuch said on the earnings call in January.  

"Turning to 2022, more specifically, we expect an increase in capital spending of at least 20% in North America, impacting both the onshore and offshore markets, while internationally, capital spending is projected to increase in the low-to-mid teens, building momentum from a very strong exit in the second half of 2021," Le Peuch added. 

While the shale patch is raising capital spending and production, it has to contend with rising costs, which, if not offset by efficiency gains, could eat into the 2022 profit margins of the producers that enjoyed record cash flows in 2021.