据美国彭博新闻社2022年1月24日报道， 在油价飙升至近90美元/桶之际，石油市场的卖家已经所剩无几。
无论卖家是投机商、交易商还是美国生产商，推动油价下跌的一些最大因素在近几个月都出现了回落。
由于全球原油库存降至7年来低点，交易商不需要卖出那么多期货合约来对冲这些供应。 据几家衍生品经纪商过去一周的数据，美国页岩领域生产商几乎没有表现出锁定未来销售的迹象。 与此同时，随着原油价格升至100美元的呼声越来越高，投机商对价格越来越乐观，从而远离空头头寸。
纽约大学兼职教授、Pentathlon投资公司合伙人伊利亚 布舒耶夫表示，“石油市场已经没有卖家了。期货市场最大的参与者是库存套期保值者。 当库存减少时，他们已无法对冲。”
出售压力的缺乏有助于解释为何油价在股市和其他一些风险资产出现波动的情况下仍能持续上涨。 虽然原油价格今年以来上涨了10%以上，但标准普尔500指数却下跌了近8%。
没有迹象表明投机商押注近期原油期货会暴跌。 基金经理上周仅做空了2.7万份西德克萨斯中质原油期货和期权合约，而做多的合约总计近34万份。
上次的仓位设定如此紧张是在去年11月底，金价在一天内暴跌10美元之后不久。 这提醒我们，当空头离开市场时，情况可能很快变得过于片面。
没有对冲
但与对冲规模相比，投机资金流动的变化更为短暂。
去年年底，包括先锋自然资源公司的斯科特·谢菲尔德在内的高管说，他们预计未来油价将在75美元至100美元之间。 包括先锋自然资源公司在内的一些对冲基金，几乎已经结清了今年的所有对冲基金。美国西方石油公司等其他公司则表示，它们不会增加新的对冲头寸。
生产商保持缄默的部分原因是，高盛集团一直在声称未来几个月原油价格将达到三位数。
包括达米安·库瓦林在内的高盛集团分析师在报告中称，随着价格上涨，“生产商将减少对冲，甚至回购对冲，而消费者将增加购买。”“正是企业资金流的这种转变，将推动长期债券价格的反弹。”
李峻 编译自 美国彭博新闻社
原文如下：
Oil Market Runs Out of Bears
The oil market is running out of sellers in its surge to almost $90 a barrel.
Whether it’s speculators, traders hedging their barrels in storage tanks or U.S. producers, some of the biggest drivers of bearish price movements have all retreated in recent months.
As global stockpiles fall to seven-year lows, traders don’t need to sell as many futures contracts to hedge those supplies. Producers in the U.S. shale patch have shown little sign of looking to lock in future sales, according to several derivatives brokers over the past week. Meanwhile as calls for $100 crude mount, speculators have turned increasingly bullish on prices, shying away from short positions.
“The market has run out of sellers,” according to Ilia Bouchouev, a partner at Pentathlon Investments and adjunct professor at New York University. “The largest player in the futures market is the inventory hedger. When inventories are drawing they cannot hedge.”
The lack of selling pressure helps to explain why oil prices have carried on rallying in the face of a wobble in equity markets and some other risk assets. While crude has gained more than 10% this year, the S&P 500 is down almost 8%.
There’s no sign that speculators are betting on a slump in crude futures in the near term. Money managers were short just 27,000 futures and options contracts of West Texas Intermediate last week, versus long positions totaling almost 340,000 contracts.
Last time positioning was this stretched, was shortly before prices cratered by $10 in a single day in late-November. It’s a reminder that when shorts leave the market, things can quickly become too one-sided.
No Hedge
But changes in speculative flows are more fleeting than hedging volumes.
Late last year, executives, including Pioneer Natural Resources Co.’s Scott Sheffield, said they expect oil to range between $75 and $100. Some, including Pioneer, have been closing out almost all their hedges for this year. Others, like Occidental Corp., have said they wouldn’t add new hedging positions.
That producer reticence is partly Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has been calling for triple-digit crude in the months ahead.
As prices rise, the market will see “producers hedging less or even buying back hedges and more consumers buying,” Goldman analysts including Damien Courvalin wrote in a note. “It is this shift in corporate flows that will contribute to the rally in long-dated prices.”
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