华尔街：2022年最受欢迎的是石油股票

在对石油和天然气行业冷眼旁观多年后，华尔街终于对石油和天然气股票热心起来。

地缘政治环境可能会推动油价进一步上涨。

美国石油生产商正在努力提高股东价值，并取得了巨大的回报。

在经历了多年的行业低迷之后，华尔街对能源的看法越来越积极，越来越多的分析师乐观表示，最糟糕的情况可能是出现在了过去。

据今日油价1月25日报道，Evercore ISI的斯蒂芬·理查森（Stephen Richardson）是最新加入牛市阵营的华尔街分析师。

理查森表示，石油涨势得到了各种“催化剂”的支持，包括奥密克戎病毒浪潮影响的减弱，以及紧张的地缘政治因素影响。

同时，摩根士丹利石油策略师Martijn Rats将2022年第三季度布伦特油价预测上调至每桶100美元，此前高盛在本周早些时候上调至每桶105美元。

那么，为什么是每桶100美元？摩根士丹利认为100美元/桶是石油需求增长开始放缓的水平，并指出，在2011年-2014年期间，石油相当于全球GDP的4.5%，按照当前GDP和消费水平，布伦特原油价格需要平均每桶110美元才能达到全球GDP相同 “份额”。

那么，这些分析师推荐哪些石油和天然气股票呢？

理查森喜欢西方石油公司、康菲石油公司和德文公司，而GS喜欢西方石油公司、阿帕奇公司、德文公司、安泰罗（Antero）和西南能源(Southwestern Energy)，但将德文公司减至持有，因为其业绩大幅超出预期，估值上升空间减少。在过去一年中，德文股价上涨了162%。

#1. 康菲石油公司

康菲石油公司是一家顶级页岩企业，主要从事常规油藏和致密油藏、页岩气、重油、液化天然气、油砂和其他生产业务。

2021年，美国银行将该公司的股票从 “中性”升级为 “买入”，目标价为67美元，称该公司为 “现金机器”，具有加速回报的潜力。

据美银分析师道格-莱格特（Doug Leggate）称，康菲公司看起来准备以比任何“纯粹”的勘探和开采速度，或比石油大公司更早、更显著的速度加快现金回报。

Leggate COP股价已经回落到更有吸引力的水平，但与布伦特石油在接近每桶70美元时的宏观前景不同。但最重要的是，这位美国银行分析师认为，康菲面临的长期石油复苏风险很大。

美国银行并不是华尔街唯一一个对康菲赞不绝口的投机者。

雷蒙德-詹姆斯在给客户的一份报告中表示，该公司股价低估了这家石油和天然气公司准备产生的大量现金。

好吧，看来分析师的判断是正确的，12月，康菲石油公布了其2022年的初步计划，强调了一个三步走计划，该公司可能在2022年向投资者返还约70亿美元现金。

康菲提供了一个重新设计的股东回报计划，包括24亿美元的基本股息（市值的2.5%）；二季度的可变股息为20c/s（折合成年化利率为当前市值的1.1%）；35亿美元的股票回购（占市值的3.7%）。

如果持续下去，这将为康菲股东提供7.3%的派息，而产量几乎没有增长。康菲今年的资本支出将增加36%（按二叠纪收购调整后为22%），但产量仅有3%的增长。实际上，康菲将在未来一年向投资者返还约70亿美元的现金。 

该公司还在进行明智的投资，包括以95亿美元全现金收购荷兰皇家壳牌公司二叠纪盆地资产，还在绿色项目上投资约2亿美元，以减少其碳排放。

今年到目前为止，康菲的股价已经上涨了14.6%，52周以来累计上涨了91.5%。

#2.德文能源公司

美国银行分析师Doug Leggate对能源行业的评级是超额的，他建议投资者关注那些有潜力通过合并或其他降低成本措施来增长自由现金流的石油公司，他提到了德文能源公司、先锋自然资源公司和依欧格资源公司。

德文的股票一直是表现最好的能源股之一，这得益于强劲的盈利和持续的成本控制，包括可变的股息结构。

2021年与WPX能源公司合并后，该公司宣布了固定加浮动的股息。德文公司采用了可变股息结构，这一点在华尔街很受欢迎。稳定的部分是无关紧要的，最近的收益率不到1%。但如果最新的可转换派息是未来主要部分，股东们可能会得到接近7%的总体收益。

德文在1季度支付了0.11美元/股的常规股息和0.24美元/股的可变股息，意味着年化收益率为5.5%。此外，该公司预测，如果目前趋势保持不变，2021年的股息收益率将超过7%，这说明其致力于在现金流允许的情况下以股息的形式向股东返还更多资本。

一些华尔街分析师指出，到年底，德文的股息收益率有可能高达8%。毕竟，这家公司确实在涌现现金，2021年第三季度的自由现金流同比增长了8倍，达到11亿美元。德文公司去年近一半的价格对冲将在今年得到回报，这可能会使自由现金流再一次得到提升。

然而，正如高盛所指出的那样，在疯狂的反弹之后，德文的价格已经相当高了，这可能会限制短期收益。德文的市盈率（TTM）为27.6，几乎是能源行业10.9的三倍。

#3. 阿帕奇公司

近日，美国阿帕奇公司与埃及政府签署协议，将在埃及西部沙漠地区投资至少35亿美元进行研究、开发和生产，该公司股价随之飙升。

据阿帕奇管理层称，该协议将90%的总产量整合到一个单一的特许权中，还将现有的开发租赁条款更新为20年。

就在12月，埃及议会批准了一项协议，对其与政府签订的生产分成合同进行现代化和整合。

2021年，该公司宣布在其140万英亩的苏里南近海地块上有重大石油发现，该地块毗邻埃克森美孚公司的历史性发现。阿帕奇表示，在位于多产的圭亚那-苏里南盆地的Kwaskwasi-1井取得了世界级的发现，它在那里遇到了278米（912英尺）的净油和挥发性石油/天然气凝析油层。

美银美林将苏里南的前景吹捧为“潜在的游戏规则改变者”。

美银美林资深石油行业分析师Doug Leggate表示，苏里南有可能重新启动投资计划。

阿帕奇股价今年以来上涨了11.9%，12个月内上涨了80.9%。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Wall Street’s Favorite Oil Stocks For 2022

Wall Street is finally warming up to oil and gas stocks after years of turning a cold shoulder on the industry.

A wave of bullish geopolitical circumstances could push oil prices even higher.

U.S. oil producers are working hard to bolster shareholder value, and its paying off in a big way. 

After souring on the sector for years, Wall Street is increasingly turning positive on energy with a growing number of analysts expressing optimism that the worst could be in the rearview mirror.

Evercore ISI's Stephen Richardson is the latest Wall Street analyst to join the bull camp.

Richardson says the oil rally is supported by a smorgasbord of catalysts, including a waning omicron wave; political unrest in Libya, protests in Kazakhstan, sabotage in Nigeria as well as the threat of war between Russia, a major energy producer, and Ukraine, a major energy transit hub.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley oil strategist Martijn Rats has raised Brent oil price forecast to $100 for Q3 2022, following Goldman Sachs' upgrade to $105 earlier in the week.

So why $100? Morgan Stanley thinks $100/b is the level at which oil demand growth begins to slow, noting that in the 2011-2014 time period oil equated to 4.5% of global GDP, at today's GDP and consumption levels, Brent would need to average $110 to achieve the same 'share' of global GDP.

So what oil and gas stocks do these analysts recommend?

Richardson likes Occidental (NYSE: OXY), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) and Devon (NYSE:DVN) while GS likes Occidental, Apache Corp. (NYSE:APA), Antero (NYSE:AR) and Southwestern (NYSE:SWN) but has cut Devon to hold on the back of sharp outperformance and reduced valuation upside. DVN shares are up 162% over the past one year.

Here are our own picks based on these recent recommendations.

#1. ConocoPhillips

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is a top shale player that primarily engages in the conventional and tight oil reservoirs, shale gas, heavy oil, LNG, oil sands, and other production operations.

Last year, Bank of America upgraded COP shares to Buy from Neutral with a $67 price target, calling the company a "cash machine" with the potential for accelerated returns.

According to BofA analyst Doug Leggate, Conoco looks "poised to accelerate cash returns at an earlier and more significant pace than any 'pure-play' E&P or oil major."

Leggate COP shares have pulled back to more attractive levels "but with a different macro outlook from when [Brent] oil peaked close to $70."

But best of all, the BofA analyst believes COP is highly exposed to a longer-term oil recovery.

But BofA is not the only Wall Street punter that's gushing about COP.

In a note to clients, Raymond James says the company's stock price is undervaluing the flood of cash the oil and gas company is poised to generate.

Well, it appears the analysts were right on the money: last month, Conoco unveiled its preliminary plans for 2022, highlighting a three-tiered program that could see the company return around $7 billion in cash to investors in 2022.

COP provides a re-engineered shareholder return plan with:

1) base dividend of $2.4B (2.5% of market cap) 

2) Variable dividend of 20c/s in the coming quarter (1.1% of current market cap, annualized)

3) Share buyback of $3.5B (3.7% of market cap)

If sustained, this positions COP shareholders for a 7.3% payout with little production growth. COP is penciling in a 36% increase in capex for the year (22% adjusting for the Permian purchase) but a mere 3% production growth. In effect, Conoco is set to return around $7 billion in cash to investors over the coming year. 

The company is also making smart investments, including its $9.5 billion all-cash acquisition of Royal Dutch Shell's (NYSE:RDS.A) Permian Basin assets and also investing about $200 million in green projects to reduce its carbon emissions. 

COP shares have returned 14.6% so far this year and are up 91.5% over 52 weeks.

#2. Devon BofA analyst Doug Leggate has an overweight rating on the energy sector and has advised investors to focus on Oil companies with the potential to grow their free cash flows through consolidations or other cost reduction measures, naming Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN), Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD), and EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG). 

DVN stock has been one of the best-performing energy stocks thanks to strong earnings and continuing cost discipline, including a variable dividend structure.

Following the merger with WPX Energy last year, the company announced fixed-plus-variable dividends. Devon has adopted a variable dividend structure—something that has gone down well with Wall Street. The stable portion is indifferent, recently yielding less than 1%. But if the latest convertible payout is a sign of the future, shareholders could receive closer to 7% overall.

Devon paid an $0.11/share regular dividend and a $0.24/share variable dividend during the quarter, implying an annualized 5.5% yield. Further, the company has forecast a dividend yield of more than 7% for 2021 if current trends hold, illustrating its commitment to return more capital to shareholders in the form of dividends whenever cash flows permit.

Some Wall Street analysts have pointed to the potential for DVN to sport a dividend yield of as high as 8% by year-end. After all, this company really is gushing cash, with free cash flow growing eight-fold year over year to $1.1 billion during the third quarter of last year. Nearly half of Devon's price hedging from last year will pay off this year, which could give free cash flow another goose.

However, as Goldman Sachs has noted, DVN has grown quite pricey after the crazy rally, which could limit near-term gains. Devon sports a P/E Ratio (TTM) of 27.6, nearly triple the energy sector's 10.9 reading.

#3. APA Corp.

Shares of APA Corp. (NYSE:APA) have been surging after the company signed an agreement with the Egyptian government to invest at least $3.5B on research, development, and production in the country's Western Desert.

According to APA's management, the deal consolidates 90% of gross production into a single concession and also refreshes existing development lease terms for 20 years.

Just last month, Egypt's parliament approved an agreement to modernize and consolidate its production sharing contracts with the government.

Last year, APA announced a major oil discovery at its 1.4-million-acre offshore Suriname tract adjacent to Exxon Mobil Corp.'s (NYSE: XOM) historic discovery. APA said it has made a world-class discovery at the Kwaskwasi-1 well located in the prolific Guyana-Suriname Basin, where it encountered 278 meters (912 feet) of net oil and volatile oil / gas condensate pay.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch touted the Suriname prospect as a potential game-changer for APA:

"Suriname has the potential to reset the investment case," Merrill Lynch's veteran oil-industry analyst Doug Leggate said.

APA shares have gained 11.9% YTD and 80.9% in 12 months.