全球通货膨胀结束廉价清洁能源时代

据美国彭博新闻社纽约报道，更廉价的清洁能源时代已经结束，这给饱受供应危机冲击的全球能源市场带来了新的不确定性。

过去十年来，可再生能源的价格持续下跌，使其成为世界上大部分地区最廉价的电力来源。然而，去年太阳能电池板的价格飙升了50%以上。 风力涡轮机价格上涨了13%，电池价格也首次出现了上涨。

由于疫情导致的供应延迟影响了从汽车到色拉的所有产品，绿色能源的价格上涨可能并不令人意外。 但船运积压和大宗商品短缺正发生在风能和太阳能特别脆弱的时刻。 经过多年技术和制造业的快速发展，在不牺牲利润的情况下削减成本的机会越来越少。 价格不会永远下跌，而是会根据原材料成本和其他市场力量上下波动。  

在绿色转型过程中，能源市场正努力应对停电和价格极端波动，清洁能源价格的上涨则是另一个不确定因素。 政策制定者被指责过快增加风能和太阳能发电，导致电网变得不稳定，他们面临着压力，要确保整个系统更加可靠——例如，通过将太阳能与电池配对，或让老化的核电站运行更长时间。  

IHS Markit清洁技术和可再生能源执行董事Edurne Zoco说：“从现在开始，对太阳能和风能发展产生影响的将不是成本——你能降低多少成本? ——但是是价值。”  

新的定价模式  

美国银行分析师朱利安·迪穆林-史密斯说，由于各国央行都在考虑收紧货币政策以抑制通胀，更高的利率还可能增加风能和太阳能项目的成本。  

史密斯说，“对这些高杠杆项目来说，最重要的投入之一就是利率。”他表示，“利率只是连续下降了10年。”

然而，气候鹰派不需要担心可再生能源的通胀。 即使最近成本上升，风能和太阳能已经从昂贵的、利基的电力来源发展到了与化石燃料竞争。 在世界上很多地方，可再生能源相对而言仍比化石燃料便宜，石油和天然气的价格在过去一年里大幅上涨。 从长期来看，风能和太阳能的价格将继续下降，尽管速度会放缓。 这意味着清洁能源装置预计将在未来几年保持快速增加。

尽管如此，可再生能源行业仍在努力应对供应链混乱的直接影响。 总部位于佛蒙特州伯灵顿的太阳能开发商Encore Renewable Energy LLC的首席执行官查德·法雷尔表示，该公司为太阳能电池板支付的费用已从2020年中期的每瓦特30美分上升到目前的每瓦特35美分。  

挪威著名能源研究公司雷斯塔能源公司高级分析师大卫·迪克森说，原材料现在占成品模块成本的70%，这让供应商几乎没有削减成本的空间。 多晶硅是制造太阳能电池板光伏电池的关键材料之一。由于多晶硅短缺，去年的成本增加，运输费也上升了。  

美国风能和太阳能项目开发商Invenergy负责建设的执行副总裁阿尔特·弗莱彻说，该公司已经被迫推迟了一些项目，因为无法获得太阳能电池板。 他说，尽管运输费在去年飙升后开始下降，但可再生能源行业正经历一场转型。“我不相信我们会回到两年前的状态，”弗莱彻如是说。

价格反弹 

太阳能工业协会和伍德麦肯兹去年12月曾预测，2022年美国太阳能装置将减少15%，比该行业组织去年9月份的预测低25%左右。 

迪克森说：“我们正处于价格下降的末端。”“商品价格将是模块价格的唯一决定因素。” 

风能行业正在经历类似的转型。彭博新能源财经的数据显示，在截至2020年的10年里，价格下跌了48%，但现在趋于平稳，预计到2030年价格将下跌14%。

彭博新能源财经风能分析师奥利弗•梅特卡夫表示：“这是可再生能源行业日趋成熟的迹象。”  

制造商将继续通过增加装置来降低每兆瓦成本。 然而，这些几乎和法国埃菲尔铁塔一样高的巨型风力涡轮机需要更多的材料，尤其是钢铁。2021年，钢铁价格飙升，未来几年可能仍将昂贵。 2021年下半年，供应链问题使陆上风力涡轮机的价格上涨了9%。 

在一些地区，开发商已经在最佳位置安装了风力涡轮机，现在正在寻找那些风力较少的地区或面积较小的地点。 这意味着开发商可能会使用专为低风速设计的风力涡轮机，或者推出定价较低的订单，这两种情况都会导致更高的每兆瓦价格。

关键大宗商品成本不断上升，以及供应链持续中断，全球最大的风力涡轮机制造商丹麦维斯塔斯风力系统公司去年不得不下调了其利润预期。 维斯塔斯风力系统公司表示，这个行业需要做出一些改变，以提供足够的风力发电能力，以达到全球气候目标。 

维斯塔斯风力系统公司高级副总裁莫滕·迪霍尔姆表示：“我们必须在这里竖起一面警告旗。我们需要关注整个行业的盈利能力。”

电池成本  

电池也受到了通货膨胀的冲击。彭博新能源财经去年底曾表示，根据2010年以来汇编的数据，今年电池组的价格预计将首次上涨。 2.3%的涨幅可以归咎于电池所含金属价格的飙升、全球需求的激增以及供应链的紧张。  

但与风能和太阳能相比，电池是清洁能源领域较新的组成部分。供应商仍在试验新的化学品并提高产能，这意味着电池仍有更大幅度降价的空间。

全球可再生能源和储存数字应用领先开发商Fluence能源公司在越南的合同制造厂已经出现了电池运输延误和成本上升的情况，但该公司预计这种情况不会持续下去。 

Fluence能源公司首席财务官丹尼斯·费尔表示：“这些积压的工作确实正在得到解决。”  

尽管困扰可再生能源开发商的一些供应链问题正在缓解，但美国拉扎德投资银行全球电力、能源和基础设施主管乔治·比利奇说，这个行业正在经历永久性的变化。没有任何新的技术突破或重大整合，价格正在企稳。

“关于大幅成本下降的故事是，大幅成本下降将不再是故事，” 比利奇如是说。  

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

Global inflation brings ever-cheaper clean energy to an end

The era of ever-cheaper clean power is over, giving a fresh jolt of uncertainty to global energy markets battered by one supply crisis after another.

Relentless price declines over the past decade made renewables the cheapest sources of electricity in much of the world. In the past year, though, prices for solar panels have surged more than 50%. Wind turbines are up 13%, and battery prices are rising for the first time ever.

As pandemic-induced supply delays ensnare everything from cars to salads, green energy’s price hikes may not come as a surprise. But shipping backlogs and commodities shortages are coming at a particularly vulnerable moment for wind and solar. After years of rapid-fire advances in technology and manufacturing, there are fewer opportunities left to cut costs without sacrificing profits. Instead of perpetually falling, prices will now ebb and flow based on the cost of raw materials and other market forces.

For energy markets grappling with blackouts and extreme price volatility in the green transition, clean-power inflation is another wild card. Policy makers, accused of adding wind and solar so rapidly that electric grids have become unstable, are under pressure to ensure the entire system is more reliable — by pairing solar with batteries, for example, or keeping aging nuclear plants running for longer.

“From now on, what’s going to make the difference around the expansion of solar and wind is not going to be costs — how low can you go? — but value,” said Edurne Zoco, executive director of clean technology and renewables at research firm IHS Markit Ltd.

New Pricing Pattern

Higher interest rates are also threatening to increase costs for wind and solar projects as central banks weigh tighter monetary policy to curb inflation, said Julien Dumoulin-Smith, an analyst with Bank of America Corp.

“One of the single most important inputs that go into these highly levered projects are rates,” he said. “Interest rates have only gone down for a straight decade.”

Climate hawks need not fear renewable-energy inflation, however. Even with the recent rise in costs, wind and solar have evolved from expensive, niche sources of electricity to become competitive with fossil fuels. Renewables remain cheaper on a relative basis than fossil fuels in much of the world, and prices for oil and natural gas have surged over the past year. Over the long term, prices for wind and solar will continue to decline, albeit at a slower pace. That means clean-energy installations are expected to keep growing rapidly in the coming years.

Still, the industry is wrestling with the immediate effects of supply-chain snarls. Burlington, Vermont-based solar developer Encore Renewable Energy LLC is paying about 35 cents a watt for panels, up from 30 cents in mid-2020, according to Chief Executive Officer Chad Farrell.

Raw materials now account for 70% of the cost of finished modules, leaving suppliers with almost no room to trim expenses, said David Dixon, a senior analyst with research firm Rystad Energy. A shortage of polysilicon, one of the key materials for the photovoltaic cells that make up solar panels, increased expenses last year, and shipping costs also rose.

Invenergy, a U.S. developer of wind and solar projects, has been forced to delay some projects because it can’t get panels, said Art Fletcher, the company’s executive vice president of construction. Though shipping expenses are beginning to decline after jumping last year, the renewables industry as a whole is undergoing a transformation, he said.

“I don’t believe we’re ever going back to where we were two years ago,” Fletcher said.

Price Rebound

The Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie Ltd. forecast last month that U.S. installations will drop 15% in 2022, about 25% below the trade group’s September forecast.

“We’re getting to the tail end of price declines,” said Dixon. “Commodity prices will be the sole determinant of module prices.”

The wind industry is going through a similar transition. Prices plunged 48% in the decade through 2020, but are now leveling off and are expected to slide 14% through 2030, according to BloombergNEF.

“That’s a sign of the industry maturing,” said BNEF wind analyst Oliver Metcalfe.

Manufacturers will continue to reduce per-megawatt costs with larger installations. However, these massive turbines — almost as tall as the Eiffel Tower — require more materials, especially steel, which surged in 2021 and will likely remain costly for the next several years. Supply-chain issues boosted prices for onshore wind turbines 9% in the second half of 2021.

In some regions, developers have already installed turbines in the best locations and now are looking at less breezy areas or smaller sites. That means they may be using turbines designed for slower windspeeds or placing smaller orders, both of which lead to higher per-megawatt prices.

The world’s largest wind turbine maker, Denmark’s Vestas Wind Systems A/S, had to cut its profit forecast last year as it faced rising costs from key commodities and persistent supply-chain disruptions. Something will need to change for the industry to be able to deliver enough wind power capacity to hit the world's climate goals, the company said.

“We have to put up a warning flag here,” said Morten Dyrholm, senior vice president at Vestas. “We need to focus on profitability across the sector.”

Battery Costs

Batteries have also been hit by inflation. BNEF said late last year that it expected prices for battery packs to climb this year for the first time in data going back to 2010. The 2.3% increase can be blamed on soaring prices for the metals batteries contain, booming demand worldwide and strained supply chains.

But compared with wind and solar, batteries are a much newer part of the clean-energy landscape. Suppliers are still experimenting with new chemistries and ramping up production capacity, which means there’s still room for more significant price cuts.

Fluence Energy Inc., a grid-scale storage developer, has seen delays and increased costs to ship batteries from its contract manufacturing facility in Vietnam, but the company doesn’t expect that to last.

“This backlog that has been created is really being worked through,” said Chief Financial Officer Dennis Fehr.

While some of the supply-chain issues bedeviling renewables developers are easing, George Bilicic, head of global power, energy and infrastructure for Lazard Ltd., said the industry is undergoing permanent changes. Without any new technological breakthroughs or major consolidation, prices are stabilizing.

“The story about big cost declines is that large cost declines won't be the story anymore," Bilicic said.