伍德麦肯兹：2022年石油需求面临下行风险

据油田技术1月21日消息，近日，伍德麦肯兹公司(Wood Mackenzie)发布了其《石油市场:2022年5大关注事项》报告，该报告讨论了今年影响全球需求、石油供应和炼油市场的不确定性和问题。

石油需求面临下行风险

新冠疫情爆发的形式和范围以及各国政府的应对措施给2022年的经济复苏和石油需求增长带来了下行风险。此外，随着21年第四季度通胀步伐加快，消费可能会进一步受阻，给经济增长和个人流动性带来下行风险。

2022年汽车电气化政策和采用速度将对本十年及以后的全球运输燃料需求产生影响。

欧洲能源税收指令的“Fit for 55”修正案提议，从2023年起取消在欧洲经济区(EEA)内销售和使用的航空和船舶船用燃料的免税。这确实需要成员国的一致同意，因此将在 2022 年成为值得关注的问题。

2022年石油供应有望实现强劲增长

2022年全球供应量预计将增加480万桶/天，略高于需求增长。预计今年不会出现供应短缺。

非欧佩克预计将贡献全球石油供应增长的近一半，其中北美是主要贡献者，包括来自加拿大、美国和墨西哥湾的增长。与2021年相比，美国本土的原油产量预计将同比增长。

然而，运营商仍专注于偿还债务和向投资者返还资金。通胀压力也可能影响经济活动水平。

在其他地方，非欧佩克国家的主要增长来源是俄罗斯、巴西（在2021年令人失望之后，巴西的产量应该会有所增长）和北海（预计产量将强劲增长）。

欧佩克+政策将继续按计划执行

欧佩克+达成的每月增产40万桶的协议预计将持续到2022年9月。但欧佩克+产油国打算每月召开会议检查基本面，并在需求与预期不同时进行必要的调整。

Wood Mackenzie副总裁Ann-Louise Hittle表示:“预计到2022年，欧佩克原油总产量将比去年增加200万桶/天，达到2830万桶/天，俄罗斯的石油产量也有望增加。”

“在欧佩克+月度会议上，谨慎的管理将主导整体增长，即使一些较小的欧佩克产油国无法显示出任何增长，甚至出现产量下降。市场管理上的失误仍然是可能的，因为该集团倾向于使用库存填充率等滞后指标来做决策。”

全球需求提升炼油利用率，但仍低于疫情前水平

2021年的特点是轻馏分较强，中等馏分较弱，几个大型炼油项目的投产比计划的要慢，特别是中东地区的项目。

副总裁Alan Gelder表示:“我们正在密切关注沙特阿拉伯的吉赞、科威特的Al-Zour、以及印度的Vizag的活动，因为这些活动将对苏伊士以东的供需平衡产生重大影响。”

然而，最大、最显著的产能增加是尼日利亚的Dangote炼油厂，该炼油厂日产量为65万桶，目前计划于2022年年中投产。尽管有这些投资，但全球需求的增长速度将超过产能增加的160万桶/天，从而提高利用率和炼油利润率。然而，新常态的利润率范围低于疫情前，因为全球利用率将保持在2019年水平以下。”

下游投资组合的高评级可能会放缓;加大对绿色战略的关注

尽管石油巨头需要进一步调整投资组合，但剥离炼油厂的计划可能会在2022年失去动力。由于过去一年已就剥离投资组合中最具吸引力的资产达成协议，亚洲主要企业和关键企业可能面临着从买家和投资者那里找到足够引起兴趣的挑战。公司可以推迟炼油厂的销售，继续致力于降低成本和提高绩效，同时制定更详细的能源转型战略。或者，更多的炼油厂转换成码头和生物基地的公告也值得关注。

炼油商将面临来自股东和政府的压力，要求他们制定减少碳足迹的策略。碳成本对炼油厂收益的影响是一个非常现实的威胁，这可能导致2022年更多炼油厂关闭，因为如果没有监管支持，这些成本无法转嫁给消费者。

Gelder表示:“最后，一个值得关注的关键话题是可再生柴油原料的价格。最近一波绿色燃料项目增加了对植物油和废品的需求。这种价格紧缩会被认为是短暂的吗?是否有足够的原料供应来支持炼油厂计划开发的生物燃料的增长?”

“具有全球影响力的市场参与者将有机会优化供给的类型和来源，而本地参与者将面临更严格的条件，放缓生物燃料供应增长的步伐，以及这对炼油厂实现净零投资组合的贡献。”

裘寅 编译自 油田技术

原文如下：

Wood Mackenzie: oil demand faces downside risks in 2022

Wood Mackenzie has released its Oil markets: 5 things to look for in 2022 report which discusses the uncertainties and issues impacting global demand, oil supply and refining markets this year.

Oil demand risks to the downside

The shape and scope of viral outbreaks and governments’ responses place downside risk on economic recovery and oil demand growth in 2022. Additionally, with the pace of inflation accelerating in 4Q21, consumption could be further hindered bringing downside risk to both economic growth and personal mobility.

Vehicle electrification policy and pace of adoption during 2022 will have ramifications on global transport fuel demand in this decade and beyond. 

Europe’s “Fit for 55” proposed amendments to the Energy Taxation Directive, is removing tax exemptions on aviation and marine bunker fuels sold within, and for use within, the EEA from 2023 onwards. This does require unanimous approval among member states, so will be one to watch in 2022.

Oil supply lining up for strong growth in 2022

2022 global supply is expected to grow by 4.8 million b/d, slightly outpacing demand growth. A shortage of supply is not anticipated for this year.

Non-OPEC is expected to contribute nearly half of the global oil supply growth with North America as the main contributor, with gains from Canada and the US including from the Gulf of Mexico. In contrast to 2021, US Lower 48 crude production is expected to show year-on-year growth. However, operators are still focused on paying down debt and returning funds to investors. Inflationary pressure could also crimp activity levels.

Elsewhere, the main sources of non-OPEC growth are Russia, Brazil, which should deliver after a disappointing 2021, and the North Sea, where strong gains in output are expected.

OPEC+ policy to continue as planned

The OPEC+ agreement to increase production across the group by 400 000 b/d each month, until September 2022 is expected to continue. But the OPEC+ producers intend to meet each month to examine the fundamentals and adjust as needed if demand is different than expected.

Wood Mackenzie vice president Ann-Louise Hittle said: “Total OPEC crude oil production is forecast to rise 2 million b/d to 28.3 million b/d in 2022 compared to last year, and gains in Russia’s oil production is also expected.

“Careful management in the monthly OPEC+ meetings will predominate with overall growth expected even if a few of the smaller OPEC producers are unable to show any increases or even see declines in output. A lapse in management of the market is still possible because the group tends to use lagging indicators such as rate of stock fill to make its decisions.”

Global demand lifts refining utilisation, but margins remain below pre-pandemic levels

2021 was characterised by strong light ends, weak middle distillates and the slower than planned commissioning of several major refining projects, particularly those in the Middle East.‘

Vice president Alan Gelder said: “We are closely monitoring the activities at Jazan in Saudi Arabia, Al-Zour in Kuwait and Vizag in India as these will make a material difference to East of Suez supply/demand balances.

“However, the largest and most significant capacity addition is the 650 000 b/d Dangote refinery in Nigeria, currently scheduled for commissioning mid-year 2022. Despite these investments, global demand growth is to outpace these capacity additions by 1.6 million b/d, lifting utilisation and improving refining margins. The new normal is, however, a lower range of margins than enjoyed pre-pandemic, as global utilisation is to remain below 2019 levels.”

Downstream portfolio high grading could slow down; greater focus on green strategies

Despite the need for further portfolio rationalisation by the oil majors, plans to divest refineries might lose steam in 2022. The majors and key regional players might be challenged to find enough interest from buyers and investors as divestments of the most attractive assets in their portfolio have already been agreed in the past year. Companies could delay refinery sales and focus on a continued commitment to cost reduction and performance improvement, while developing more detailed energy transition strategies. Alternatively, more announcements of refinery conversions to terminals and bio-sites are something to watch out for.

Refiners will come under pressure from shareholders and governments to devise strategies to reduce their carbon footprint. The impact of carbon costs on refinery earnings is a very real threat, which could lead to more refinery closures in 2022, as these costs cannot be passed to consumers without regulatory support.

Gelder said: “Finally, a key topic to watch is prices of feedstocks for renewable diesel. The recent wave of green fuels projects has increased demand for vegetable oil and waste products. Can this crunch in prices be considered short-lived? Is there enough feedstock supply to support the ramp up in biofuels that refiners aim to develop?

“Market players with a global presence will have the opportunity to optimise the types and origin of the feed, while local players face tighter conditions, slowing down the pace of biofuels supply growth, and its contribution to achieving net zero portfolios for refiners.”