挪威天然气能否解决欧洲能源危机?

• 挪威能源巨头Equinor已同意维持最大天然气产量，以帮助欧盟填充其天然气储存设施。  

• 挪威显然无法覆盖俄罗斯向欧洲供应的全部天然气。  

• 尽管欧洲的液化天然气（LNG）进口终端容量有限，然而，在能源危机的3个月里，欧洲一直是美国LNG出口的首选目的地。 

据美国油价网奥斯陆报道，挪威能源巨头Equinor首席执行官安德斯·奥佩德尔日前表示，Equinor将在今年春季和夏季保持最大天然气产量，以帮助欧盟(EU)充实其天然气储存设施。

欧洲第2大管道天然气供应商Equinor这一承诺出台之际，人们仍在担心一年中天气较暖月份的天然气供应，这通常是为冬季需求高峰期而填满天然气储备的时间。 去年，欧洲大部分地区未能确保冬季有足够的天然气供应，从而引发了天然气短缺。 

奥佩德尔日前在接受彭博社记者采访时表示，挪威一直是欧洲可靠的合作伙伴，并将继续向欧洲大陆提供尽可能多的天然气。 欧洲面临的问题是，可使用的天然气还不到所需的一半。 事实上，要少得多。

据欧盟统计局(Eurostat)透露，欧盟去年上半年所需的46.8%天然气是从俄罗斯进口的。 在此期间，挪威的天然气进口量占欧盟天然气进口总量的20.5%，不到俄罗斯向欧盟输送天然气总量的一半。

根据欧洲经济智库Bruegel发布的数据，去年晚些时候，挪威每周向欧盟出口超过29亿立方米的管道天然气。 相比之下，俄罗斯的管道天然气供应量略高于23亿立方米。 然而，在去年上半年，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司保持了每周向欧洲输送30多亿立方米的天然气，而挪威从未达到这一水平。

这种情况凸显出欧盟在天然气供应安全方面面临的最大问题。 多年来，欧盟一直过度依赖俄罗斯，这滋生了前者的自满情绪，并确信无论发生什么，俄罗斯都会继续向欧洲输送天然气。

俄罗斯也有同样的看法，但最近有关天然气价格和乌克兰的事件动摇了欧洲各国政府的看法，它们现在正急于寻找替代供应商，以备不时之需。 事实证明，这项任务可能比他们预期的更具挑战性。

尽管挪威气田需要在某个时候停下来进行维护，但挪威可能还能继续以最大的采气速度向欧洲供应一段时间的天然气。 然而，挪威显然无法满足俄罗斯目前向欧洲供应的全部天然气。 此外，随着德国关闭煤炭和核电厂，挪威也无法满足来自德国的额外需求。 

顺带一提，这就是俄罗斯北溪天然气管道扩建的目的——确保无核和后来无煤的德国的天然气供应。 目前，北溪-1管道输送的天然气占俄罗斯输往欧洲天然气总量的三分之一以上。 如果北溪-2管道项目的产能增加一倍，将使俄罗斯对欧洲的天然气出口增加超过三分之二。

除了挪威，欧洲还有什么其他选择? 中亚是一个选择，更具体地说，阿塞拜疆已经在通过意大利完成的南部天然气走廊输送一些天然气。 欧洲唯一的另一种选择是LNG。                                       

尽管欧洲LNG进口终端的接收能力有限，但由于能源危机，欧洲过去3个月来一直是美国LNG出口的首选目的地。 根据Refinitiv发布的数据，1月份美国多达75%的LNG产量出口到欧洲。 2月份到目前为止，美国一半的LNG货物已运往欧洲。

卡塔尔和澳大利亚的LNG也是欧盟解决能源危机的选择。 2月份，欧盟甚至暂停了对卡塔尔能源公司的反垄断调查，这可能表明布鲁塞尔愿意做出让步以换取卡塔尔的天然气。  

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

Can Norwegian Natural Gas Solve Europe's Energy Crisis?

·     Norway’s Equinor has agreed to maintain maximum natural gas production rates to help the European Union fill its gas storage facilities.

·     Norway clearly cannot cover the whole amount of gas that Russia supplies to Europe.

·     Europe has been the top destination for U.S. liquefied natural gas for three months amid the energy crunch, despite limited LNG import terminal capacity.

Norway’s Equinor will maintain maximum natural gas production rates through the spring and summer to help the European Union fill its gas storage facilities, the company’s chief executive said this week.

The pledge comes amid continued concern about gas supplies into the warmer months of the year, which is typically the time storage is filled up for the peak demand period of winter. Last year, most of Europe failed to make sure it had enough gas for the winter, which sparked the gas crunch.

Speaking to Bloomberg this week, Equinor’s Anders Opedal said that Norway had always been a reliable partner of Europe and will continue to supply as much gas as it can to the continent as possible. The problem for Europe is that what’s possible is less than half of the gas it needs. Much less, in fact.

According to Eurostat, the EU imported 46.8 percent of its natural gas from Russia in the first half of last year. Norway, for its part, accounted for 20.5 percent of natural gas imports during that period—less than half of what Russia sent the EU’s way.

According to Bruegel, a European economics think tank, Norway exported over 2.9 billion cu m weekly to the EU in late 2021. This compared with a little over 2.3 billion cu m for Russia. During the first half of the year, however, Gazprom kept flows above 3 billion cu m weekly while Norway never reached that level.

The situation highlights the biggest problem that the EU has with its gas supply security. It has been over-reliant on Russia for years, and this has bred complacency and the certainty that whatever happens, Russia will continue shipping gas to Europe.

Russia shares the sentiment, but the recent events around gas prices and Ukraine have shaken it among European governments, which are now in a rush to find alternative suppliers in case they are needed. The task is proving more challenging than perhaps they had expected.

Norway can probably keep pumping at maximum for a while longer, although it would need to stop for maintenance at some point. Yet Norway clearly cannot cover the whole amount of gas that Russia supplies to Europe right now. Also, it can’t cover the additional demand that will be coming from Germany as it closes its coal and nuclear power plants.

This was the point of the Nord Stream route expansion, by the way—ensuring supply for nuclear-free and, later, coal-free Germany. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline currently ships more than a third of Russian gas exports to Europe. Doubling its capacity with Nord Stream 2 of course—will make it fit to handle more than two-thirds of Russia’s gas exports to Europe.

What other options does Europe have besides Norway? Central Asia is an option, and more specifically Azerbaijan, which is already shipping some gas through the Southern Gas Corridor ending in Italy. The only other alternative is LNG.

Europe has been the top destination for U.S. liquefied natural gas for three months amid the energy crunch, despite limited LNG import terminal capacity. According to data from Refinitiv reported by Reuters, as much as 75 percent of U.S. LNG exports went to Europe last month. So far this month, half of all U.S. LNG cargos have been sent to Europe.

Qatar and Australia are also LNG options for the EU. The union even suspended an antitrust investigation into Qatar Petroleum—recently renamed QatarEnergy—this month in what might be a sign Brussels is willing to make concessions in exchange for gas.