据世界石油2月18日消息称，尽管原油价格已逼近每桶100美元，但美国石油产量要到明年晚些时候才能达到疫情前的高点，因通货膨胀和产量停滞阻碍了石油行业的复苏。
这是行业咨询公司ESAI分析师伊丽莎白·墨菲的说法。虽然墨菲估计，美国今年的日产量将增加90万桶，但她指出，成本上升和钻井问题是阻碍经济进一步增长的因素。
新钻井数量跟不上完井数量，而完井是石油开始流动之前的最后一步。墨菲在一次网络研讨会上表示，保持新钻井的良好记录对于维持和提高产量是必要的。
她说，服务业的价格上涨也是一个问题，这可能会抑制产量增长。她指出，在世界上石油产量最多的二叠纪盆地，用于水力压裂的砂的成本已经增加了两倍。她说，其他可能减缓供应复苏的因素包括更多的监管规定，如甲烷法规、专利费上涨以及行业进一步整合。
自去年12月初以来，原油价格已飙升40%，达到每桶90美元以上。随着上周美国钻井公司增加的钻机数量达到四年来的最高水平，许多生产商都渴望利用油价上涨的机会。本周，美国政府报告称，二叠纪盆地的石油供应量连续三个月达到历史最高水平。但即便如此，由于一些生产限制，全球原油供应仍无法满足强劲的需求。
朱佳妮 摘译自 世界石油
原文如下：
U.S. oil production won't reach pre-Covid high until 2023, analyst says
Even as crude prices hurtle toward $100 a barrel, U.S. oil output won’t be able to reach its pre-pandemic high until later next year as inflation and production logjams present obstacles to the industry’s recovery.
That’s according to Elisabeth Murphy, an analyst at industry consultant ESAI. While Murphy estimates that the U.S. is set to add 900,000 barrels a day of supply this year, she pointed to rising costs and issues with drilling as factors that are holding back more growth.
New drilling isn’t keeping up with number of well completions, the final step before oil begins flowing. Keeping a good log of newly drilled wells is necessary to maintain and grow production, Murphy said during a webinar.
Service-sector price inflation is also an issue, and one that could restrain production growth, she said, noting that the cost of sand for fracking purposes has tripled in the Permian basin, the world’s most prolific oil patch. Other factors that could slow supply recovery include more regulations such as methane rules, rising royalty rates and further industry consolidation, she said.
Crude prices have surged 40% since early December to more than $90 a barrel. Many producers have been eager to take advantage of the rally, with U.S. drillers adding the most rigs in four years last week. This week, the U.S. government reported that the Permian reached record volumes of oil supply for three consecutive months. But even with that expansion, global crude supplies aren’t keeping up with robust demand amid some production limitations.
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