据油田技术2月24日消息称，Rystad Energy的研究显示，撒哈拉以南非洲地区未开发的天然气供应将在这十年得到释放，由于大量未开发的深水资源，其产量将从2021年的130万桶/天增加到2030年的270万桶/天，增幅超过一倍。
尽管迄今为止，深水开发在该地区的液体产量中发挥着关键作用，平均约占年产量的50%，但此类油田的天然气产量却很少。然而，随着未来几年深海天然气储量的激增，这种情况有望改变。深水开发项目的产量将从 2021 年的 12万桶油当量/天（占包括陆架和陆地产量在内的总产量的 9%）猛增至100万桶/天，占总产量的 38%。
随着全球对天然气的需求持续上升，以及进口国面临供应难题，该地区的生产前景是光明的。深水油气产量预计将在21世纪30年代进一步增长，到2035年，天然气产量将在五年内翻倍，达到210万桶/天。根据估计的可采储量、开发时间表和计划，到2035年，陆架和陆地储量的天然气将增加，占该地区预计的400万桶/天天然气总产量的46%。
由于蓬勃发展的生产前景，预计绿地投资也将飙升。2021年，该地区天然气和液体新油田的资本支出总额为120亿美元，其中80亿美元用于深水开发。到 2030 年，绿地投资总额将飙升至近 400 亿美元，其中 240 亿美元将用于深水项目。
Rystad Energy 的高级上游分析师 Siva Prasad 说：“未来几年，撒哈拉以南非洲地区的天然气产量预计将大幅增加，特别是天然气产量将大幅增加。尽管陆上已经有了显著的发现，但深水海上资源的开发将为该地区带来一个快速增长的时期。”
撒哈拉以南非洲地区的天然气产量一直处于历史最低水平，但由于莫桑比克、南非和毛里塔尼亚等国存在大量未开发的深水油田，这一状况有望改变。
目前撒哈拉以南非洲地区的潜在可采储量中，约60%位于深水区，其中近60%为天然气。莫桑比克拥有该地区52%的可采天然气资源，其次是塞内加尔-毛里塔尼亚海域，合计20%，坦桑尼亚约12%。尼日利亚还拥有大量可采天然气储量，这将有助于预期产量的增长。
另一方面，撒哈拉以南非洲地区的石油产量预计将在20多年来首次降至400万桶/天以下，但将在2028年恢复，并在2020年恢复到440万桶/天左右的水平。液体产量预计也将在21世纪30年代增长，到2035年的总产量约为500万桶/天。
该地区可开采的深水资源中，液体资源约占40%，其中尼日利亚占33%，安哥拉占31%。加纳和莫桑比克是另外两个拥有大量未开发资源的国家，分别占该地区深水液体储量的8%和7%。
朱佳妮 摘译自 油田技术
原文如下：
Rystad Energy: gas output from Sub-Saharan Africa set to double by 2030
Untapped natural gas supplies in Sub-Saharan Africa are set to be unleashed this decade, with output more than doubling from 1.3 million boe/d in 2021 to 2.7 million boe/d in 2030 due to vast undeveloped deepwater resources, Rystad Energy research shows.
While deepwater developments have played a crucial role in the region’s liquids output to date, averaging about 50% of annual production, gas output from such fields has been minimal. That is expected to change, however, as gas from deepwater reserves will surge in the coming years. Production from deepwater developments will skyrocket from 120 000 boe/d in 2021, 9% of total output including shelf and land production, to 1 million boe/d accounting for 38% of total output.
As global demand for gas continues to rise and importing countries suffer supply headaches, the production outlook for the region is promising. Deepwater production is projected to grow further in the 2030s, with gas output more than doubling in five years to 2.1 million boe/d by 2035. Gas from shelf and land reserves will increase by 2035 and will contribute about 46% of the expected 4 million boe/d of total gas output from the region, based on estimated recoverable reserves, development timelines and plans.
As a result of the booming production outlook, greenfield investments are also projected to soar. Gas and liquids greenfield CAPEX in the region totalled US$12 billion in 2021, with US$8 billion spent on deepwater developments. By 2030, total greenfield investments will surge to almost US$40 billion, of which US$24 billion will go on deepwater projects.
“Production in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, with natural gas output in particular set to see a boom in output. Although there have been notable onshore finds, the development of deepwater offshore resources is going to usher in a period of rapid growth for the region,” says Siva Prasad, senior upstream analyst with Rystad Energy.
Natural gas production in Sub-Saharan Africa has been historically low, but that looks set to change due to significant undeveloped deepwater finds in countries including Mozambique, South Africa and Mauritania.
Of the current potential recoverable reserves across Sub-Saharan Africa, about 60% lie in deepwater regions, of which close to 60% is gas. Mozambique dominates with 52% of the total recoverable gas resources in the area, followed by the Senegal–Mauritania maritime region with a combined 20% and Tanzania with about 12%. Nigeria also holds significant recoverable reserves of gas that will contribute to the expected output hike.
On the flip side, Sub-Saharan African liquids production is expected to drop below 4 million bpd for the first time in more than 20 years but will recover by 2028 and return to 2020 levels of around 4.4 million bpd by the end of the decade. Liquids output is projected to grow in the 2030s, too, with total production of approximately 5 million bpd in 2035.
about 40% of the total recoverable deepwater resources in the region are liquids, of which Nigeria accounts for 33% and Angola has 31%. Ghana and Mozambique are two other countries with significant untapped resources, amounting to 8% and 7%, respectively, of the region’s deepwater liquids reserves.
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