据安迅思3月3日消息称，美国能源信息署（EIA）周四在其年度能源展望中表示，到 2050 年，原油和天然气仍将是美国消耗最多的能源，但可再生能源将是增长最快的能源。
EIA的预测取决于经济增长的速度，并根据经济增长的高低做出假设。
EIA预测，在2023年参考案例中，美国原油产量将恢复到疫情前的水平(GDP增长2.2%)，并在长期内保持稳定，同时指出，尽管基准价格上涨，但2021年的产量并未增长。
EIA 预计，到 2050 年，美国天然气的生产和消费量将增长，其中大部分增长来自液化天然气 (LNG) 的出口，因为预计产量的增长速度几乎是消费量的两倍。
EIA表示:“到2050年，我们预计美国的天然气产量将比消费量高出约25%。”
EIA指出，随着6家美国炼油厂的关闭或改造，2020年至2021年期间，美国的蒸馏操作能力下降了3.5%，但它预计利用率在长期内将保持平稳。
EIA 表示：“我们预计，到2022年，利用率将恢复到接近历史平均水平的水平，但对于炼油厂来说，如果超过这个点，通过提高利用率来弥补产能损失，将不划算。由于产能下降和利用率稳定，我们预计，长期来看，精炼产品的总产量将保持在峰值水平以下。”
EIA表示，预计可再生柴油在燃料组合中的份额将会增加，但从长远来看，它在整个柴油组合中所占的份额仍然很小。
EIA 预测，到2050年，天然气占发电总量的比例将稳定在三分之一左右，而同期可再生能源的比例将翻一番。
EIA表示，从2020年到2050年，天然气预计将占累计新增产能的40%以上。
曹海斌 摘译自 安迅思
原文如下：
Crude, natgas most-consumed US energy sources – EIA
Crude oil and natural gas will remain the most-consumed US energy sources through 2050, but renewables will be the fastest-growing segment, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Thursday in its annual energy outlook.
The EIA’s forecasts depend on the speed of economic growth and makes assumptions based on high and low rates of growth.
The EIA projects US crude production to return to pre-pandemic levels in the reference case (GDP growth of 2.2%) in 2023 and stabilise over the long term, while noting that production did not grow in 2021 despite higher benchmark prices.
The EIA expects production and consumption of US natural gas to grow through 2050, with much of the growth fueled by exports of liquified natural gas (LNG), as production is forecast to grow almost twice as fast as consumption.
“By 2050, we project that approximately 25% more natural gas will be produced than consumed in the US,” the EIA said.
The EIA noted that US distillation operating capacity was reduced by 3.5% between 2020 and 2021 with the closures or conversions of six US refineries, but it expects utilisation rates to remain flat over the long term.
“We project that utilisation rates will return to near historical averages in 2022, but it will not be cost-effective for refineries to make up for lost capacity by increasing utilisation beyond this point,” the EIA said. “As a result of lower capacity and stable utilisation, we expect total production of refined products to remain below peak levels over the long run.”
The EIA said it expects the share of renewable diesel in the fuel mix to increase but remain just a fractional part of the total diesel fuel mix in the long term.
The EIA held its projection for the percentage of natgas in the generation mix steady through 2050 at about one-third, even as the percentage of renewables doubles over the same time frame.
Natural gas is also forecast to account for more than 40% of cumulative capacity additions from 2020 to 2050, the EIA said.
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