据管道&天然气杂志网3月10日报道,美国天然气期货上涨约2%,因接近历史最高水平的液化天然气出口导致公用事业公司上周从库存中提取的燃料多于预期,而且预计未来两周供暖需求将增加。
近几个月来,美国的液化天然气出口一直强劲,因为由于全球石油和天然气价格已经达到或接近历史最高水平。
美国能源情报署(EIA)表示,截至3月4日当周,公用事业从储气库中提取了1240亿立方英尺天然气。
这高于分析师在路透调查中预测的1170亿立方英尺的提取量,而去年同一周减少590亿立方英尺,五年(2017-2021年)的平均减少量为890亿立方英尺。
美国即月天然气期货上涨10.5美分,涨幅2.3%,收于4.631美元/百万英热单位。
美国的天然气期货仍然不受创纪录的欧洲价格的影响,因为美国拥有国内使用所需的所有燃料,而且该国出口更多液化天然气的能力受到产能限制的限制。
美国已经在接近满负荷生产液化天然气,因此无论全球天然气价格上涨多高,它都无法在短期内生产更多的过冷燃料。
由于美国液化天然气出口已经接近最大产能,一些分析师表示,全球能源价格飙升将导致美国天然气价格下跌,因为美国钻探商寻求更多的石油供应。这将增加与石油一起从地下开采出来的伴生天然气的量。
据数据提供商Refinitiv表示,随着更多油气井在今年早些时候冻结后重新投入使用,美国本土48个州的天然气日均产量有望从2月份的925亿立方英尺上升至3月份的934亿立方英尺。相比之下,去年12月纪录的962亿立方英尺。
周四,由于一些生产盆地的寒冷天气导致产量下降,天然气日产量有望降至923亿立方英尺。
据Refinitiv预计,包括出口在内的美国天然气日均需求将在本周和下周保持在1120亿立方英尺左右。该预测高于Refinitiv周三的展望。
流向美国液化天然气出口工厂的天然气量从2月的124.3亿立方英尺/天和1月创纪录的124.4亿立方英尺/天升至3月迄今的125.8亿立方英尺/天。美国有能力将约125亿立方英尺的天然气转化为液化天然气。流向设施的其余燃料用于运行核电站。
郝芬 译自 管道&天然气杂志网
原文如下:
US Natgas Up 2% on Big Storage Draw, Near Record LNG Exports
U.S. natural gas futures gained around 2% as near-record LNG exports caused utilities to pull more of the fuel from storage last week than expected and on forecasts for more heating demand over the next two weeks.
U.S. LNG exports have been strong in recent months because global oil and gas prices have traded at or near record highs .
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 124 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 4.
That was higher than the 117-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decline of 59 Bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average decline of 89 Bcf.
U.S. front-month gas futures rose 10.5 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $4.631 per MMBtu.
U.S. gas futures remain shielded from record European prices because the United States has all the fuel it needs for domestic use and the country's ability to export more LNG is limited by capacity constraints.
The United States is already producing LNG near full capacity, so no matter how high global gas prices rise, it would not be able to produce much more of the supercooled fuel any time soon.
Since U.S. LNG exports were already near maximum capacity, some analysts said soaring global energy prices would cause American gas prices to decline as U.S. drillers seek more oil supplies. That would boost the amount of associated gas that comes out of the ground with that oil.
Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.4 Bcfd in March from 92.5 Bcfd in February as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing earlier in the year. That compares with a monthly record of 96.2 Bcfd in December.
On a daily basis, gas output was on track to drop to 92.3 Bcfd on Thursday as cold weather in some producing basins reduces output.
Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would hold around 112.0 Bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday.
The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 12.58 Bcfd so far in March from 12.43 Bcfd in February and a record 12.44 Bcfd in January. The United States has the capacity to turn about 12.5 Bcfd of gas into LNG. The rest of the fuel flowing to the facilities is used to operate the plants.
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