雷斯塔能源：油价下跌的喘息可能是短暂的

据美国钻井网站2022年3月16日报道，油价下跌的喘息可能是短暂的。这是挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）高级石油市场分析师路易丝·迪克森这样说的。他说，油价下跌表明市场还没有充分意识到失去大国石油供应对全球供应的潜在影响。 

迪克森在3月15日晚些时候发给美国钻井网站的一份声明中表示：“油价从每桶130美元调整……反映了来自市场的一系列信号。”

迪克森说，“石油需求风险是真实存在的。 据估计，严厉封锁措施可能会使每天50万桶石油消费面临风险，而能源价格上涨导致的燃料短缺将进一步加剧这一风险。”

迪克森接着说：“交易正变得越来越不稳定，对算法交易系统的依赖可以将一个微小信号转化为一种全面的级连式价格影响，这种情况在战争迷雾和金融市场不确定性中越来越频繁地发生。”

迪克森称，“如果欧洲不承诺削减每天进口的近400万桶原油，供应风险已暂时缓解。这一风险曾推动油价升至每桶130美元。”

“美国通货膨胀也是人们关注的焦点，3月16日美联储会议上预期的加息决定正在缓慢地推动美元走强，并给油价带来下行压力。”

迪克森接着说：“当前已经显示出航空燃料需求的低迷，自2月中旬以来，航空燃料需求出现了严重下降的趋势。”

市场定位和极端波动 

在3月15日发给美国钻井网站的另一份报告中，渣打银行的分析师表示，他们认为与过去一周的基本面变化相比，油价回调幅度的降低更多地说明了市场定位和极端波动的影响。 

分析师在报告中表示：“金融和大宗商品市场波动性的增加，导致交易商持有的风险水平大幅上升，并产生了结清部分头寸以降低风险的相关动机。”

“由于最近几周石油交易商大多在直接仓位和价差方面都持有高度看多的头寸，在高风险环境下的优化主要涉及及时平仓，”分析师补充称。  

“由于目前投机性空头非常少，自然买家就很少，下行空间已经打开。 尽管所涉及的价格区间一直很极端，但近期的价格动态具有教科书式投机过度的所有特征，然后进行必要的调整，以重新设定极端头寸，”分析师们继续说。  

分析师们在报告中指出，具有讽刺意味的是，石油交易商普遍认为油价只会上涨，这导致市场动态决定短期内油价只会下跌。  

分析师表示：“尽管持仓导致价格下跌，但我们认为关键基本面因素本周基本没有变化，而且还受到异常高的不确定性的影响。” 

李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站

原文如下：

Cheaper Oil May Be Short Lived

The reprieve of cheaper oil may be short lived.

That’s according to Rystad Energy’s senior oil market analyst Louise Dickson, who said falling prices indicate the market has not fully realized the potential impact of lost Russian barrels on global supply.

“The oil price correction from $130 per barrel … reflects a number of signals from the market,” Dickson said in a statement sent to Rigzone late Tuesday.

“The oil demand risk is real. It is estimated that a severe lockdown in big country could put 0.5 million barrels per day of oil consumption at risk, which would be further compounded by fuel shortages due to inflated energy prices,” Dickson added.

“Trading is getting increasingly volatile and the dependence on algorithmic trading systems can turn a micro signal into a sweeping cascade price impact, an occurrence that is happening with increased frequency amid the fog of war and financial market uncertainty,” Dickson went on to say.

“Without Europe pledging to cut back on its nearly four million barrels per day of crude imports, the supply risk that shot oil prices up towards $130 per barrel has been temporarily mollified,” Dickson said. 

“U.S. inflation is also in the spotlight, and the expected decision at … [today’s] Fed meeting to raise interest rates has been slowly strengthening the U.S. dollar and putting downward pressure on oil prices,” Dickson added.

“It is already showing jet fuel demand distress as they have seen severe downward trends in aviation since the middle of February, ” Dickson continued.

Market Positioning and Extreme Volatility

In a separate report sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, analysts at Standard Chartered said they think the correction lower in prices tells them more about market positioning and the effect of extreme volatility than it does about changes in fundamentals over the past week.

“The increase in volatility across financial and commodity markets led to a sharp rise in the level of risk held by traders and an associated incentive to close out some positions to reduce risk,” the analysts stated in the report.

“Because oil traders have mostly been positioned with a highly bullish bias in terms of both outright positions and spreads in recent weeks, optimization in a higher-risk environment has mostly involved closing out prompt longs,” the analysts added.

“With speculative shorts being very thin on the ground currently, there have been few natural buyers and the downside has opened up. While the price ranges involved have been extreme, recent price dynamics bear all the hallmarks of a textbook speculative overshoot followed by the correction necessary to reset extreme positioning,” the analysts continued.

In the report, the analysts noted that the irony of the situation is that the dominance among oil traders of the belief that prices could only move higher has led to a position from which market dynamics dictated that in the short-term prices could only go lower.

“Despite the positioning-led price fall, we think the key fundamentals are largely unchanged week on week and are also subject to an unusually high level of uncertainty,” the analysts said.