EIA：到2050年石油和天然气将成为美国最常用的燃料

据烃加工3月17日消息称，EIA 预测，到2050年，美国的能源消耗将继续增长，主要受人口和经济增长的推动。在这种仅反映现行法律法规的案例中，到2050年，可再生能源是增长最快的能源来源，而石油仍然是能源消费的最大份额，其次是天然气。

交通运输和工业加工是美国石油和其他化石液体的主要消费者。EIA预计，从2021年到2050年，美国工业部门能源消耗的增长速度将是其他任何终端使用部门的两倍多。在工业领域，对石油需求增长最快的是作为原料的碳氢气体液体(HGL)。石油仍然是农业、建筑、采矿等非制造业以及炼油加工的主要燃料。

EIA 预计美国的天然气消费量将继续增长，这主要是由于预期天然气价格与历史水平相比将保持低位。从 2020 年代初开始，美国工业部门一直是天然气的最大消费国，主要是使用天然气作为原料的化工行业，以及多个行业热和电力消耗的增加。具体来说，在整个预测期间，大宗化学品工业是最大的工业能源使用者，它对整个工业部门能源消费增长的贡献最大。

EIA 预计，到 2020 年代中期，大宗化学品行业将建造使用天然气和 HGL 原料生产化学品的设施。2020 年代前五年之后，随着大宗化工行业的增长转向二级化工生产，天然气和HGL原料消费增长放缓，二级化工生产侧重于从商品化学品中生产的化学品，而不是HGL或天然气。

石油和其他液体（主要是车用汽油和馏分燃料油）是美国运输部门消耗的主要燃料。车用汽油满足公路客运轻型车辆 (LDV) 的出行需求，而柴油消费满足我们假设的中型和重型货车出行的增长。

尽管空调、照明和其他终端用途的效率持续提高，电力仍然是建筑中增长最快的能源来源。到2050年，现场发电(主要来自太阳能光伏发电)的增长速度快于购买的建筑物电网电力。

EIA 预计到 2050 年，太阳能光伏等分布式发电技术最终将提供 8% 的家庭用电和 6% 的商业建筑用电。此外，EIA 预计，用于空间供暖的天然气是美国商业和住宅能源消耗的最大贡献者，到2050年，天然气消费量有所下降。

朱佳妮 摘译自 烃加工

原文如下：

Petroleum, natural gas will be the most-used fuels in the U.S. through 2050

The EIA projects that U.S. energy consumption will grow through 2050, primarily driven by population and economic growth. In this case, which reflects only current laws and regulations, renewable energy is the fastest-growing energy source through 2050, and petroleum remains the largest share of energy consumption throughout that period, followed by natural gas.

Transportation and industrial processes are the primary consumers of petroleum and other liquids in the U.S. The EIA projects that U.S. industrial sector energy consumption will grow more than twice as fast as any other end-use sector from 2021 to 2050. In the industrial sector, the most growth in demand for petroleum is for hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) used as a feedstock. Petroleum remains a major fuel for non-manufacturing industries such as agriculture, construction, and mining, as well as for refining processes.

The EIA projects that U.S. consumption of natural gas will keep growing, primarily driven by expectations that natural gas prices will remain low compared with historical levels. Starting in the early 2020s, the U.S. industrial sector has been the largest consumer of natural gas, primarily by the chemical industries that use natural gas as a feedstock and by increased heat-and-power consumption across multiple industries. Specifically, the bulk chemicals industry is the largest industrial energy user throughout the projection period, and it contributes the most to the growth in energy consumption in the industrial sector as a whole.

The EIA projects that through the mid-2020s, the bulk chemicals industry will build facilities that use natural gas and HGL feedstocks to produce chemicals. After the first half of the 2020s, growth in natural gas and HGL feedstock consumption slows as growth in the bulk chemicals industry shifts to secondary chemical production, which focuses on chemicals produced from commodity chemicals, as opposed to HGLs or natural gas.

Petroleum and other liquids (mainly motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil) are the primary fuels consumed in the U.S transportation sector. Motor gasoline meets on-road passenger light-duty vehicle (LDV) travel demand, while diesel consumption meets our assumed increases in medium- and heavy-duty freight truck travel.

Despite continued efficiency gains in air-conditioning, lighting, and other end uses, electricity continues to be the fastest-growing source of energy used in buildings. onsite electricity generation, primarily from solar photovoltaics (PV), grows faster than purchased grid electricity for buildings through 2050.

The EIA projects that distributed generation technologies such as solar PV will ultimately supply 8% of electricity consumed in households and 6% of electricity consumed in commercial buildings by 2050. In addition, the EIA projects that natural gas consumed for space heating, which is the largest single contributor to both U.S. commercial and residential delivered energy consumption, declines through 2050.