据油价网3月16日消息称，能源技术研究咨询公司Thunder Said Energy周三在一份报告中表示，能源大宗商品价格的上涨预计将推动全球一次能源支出占全球国内生产总值(GDP)的比例升至创纪录的13%，相当于1979年-1980年能源危机时的能源成本水平。
该咨询公司指出，预计13%的创纪录能源支出将是1900年至2020年间4%的平均水平的三倍，是2018年水平的1.3倍。
自20世纪初以来，一次能源支出平均占全球GDP的4%，在第一次石油危机后上升到8%，在第二次石油危机后上升到13%，2008年为10%，在2013-2015年价格上涨时为8%-10%。
Thunder Said Energy指出，作为全球GDP一部分的一部分，能源支出预计将达到创纪录水平，其假设价格为每吨煤250美元-300美元、每桶原油125美元-150美元、全球天然气40美元-45美元/千立方英尺。
Thunder Said Energy分析师兼首席执行官Rob West在报告中写道：“所以这不是‘石油冲击’或‘天然气冲击’，而是‘一切冲击’。”
曹海斌 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
Energy Spending To Hit Record 13% Of Global GDP In 2022
Rallying energy commodity prices are expected to drive up primary energy expenditures globally to a record 13 percent of world gross domestic product (GDP), comparable to the energy cost levels in the 1979-80 energy crisis, research consultancy for energy technologies Thunder Said Energy said in a report on Wednesday.
The expected record 13-percent energy expenditure would be three times the average level of 4 percent between 1900 and 2020, and 1.3 times the 2018 levels, the consultancy noted.
Since the beginning of the 20th century, primary energy expenditures have averaged 4 percent of global GDP, rising to 8 percent after the first oil shock, 13 percent after the second oil shock, 10 percent in 2008, and 8-10 percent in 2013-2015, when prices were high.
The estimate of a record energy expenditure as part of global GDP assumes prices of $250-$300 per ton of coal, $125-$150 per barrel of crude oil, and $40-45/mcf price of global natural gas, Thunder Said Energy noted.
"So this is not an 'oil shock' or a 'gas shock' but an 'everything shock'," Rob West, Analyst & CEO at Thunder Said Energy, wrote in the report.
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