OilX：美国每周石油需求数据被大大高估

美国能源信息署（EIA）发布的美国每周石油需求数据被大大高估。  

3月份的每周石油需求预估已经表明，近期的石油需求强劲势头正在减弱。  

在最新的每周石油需求评估中，EIA估计上周仅汽油日需求就从863万桶降至850万桶。

据美国油价网4月1日报道，全球著名石油数据分析公司OilX周五（4月1日）表示，美国能源信息署(EIA)公布的每周石油需求数据与最后一个月度石油需求数据相比被大大高估。  

OilX在推特上发文称：“美国每周发布的石油需求数据严重高估了月度石油总需求，不仅是其他油类，还有道路燃料。”

根据这家分析公司公布的统计数据，美国3月份的每周需求估计已经显示出近期需求强劲势头正在减弱。

OilX指出：“如果近期的数据与月度数据相比继续出现类似的错误，那么这一数据可能会变得更弱。”

EIA 3月31日公布的月度原油供应数据显示，1月份美国原油日总供应量(反映石油总需求的指标)平均为1973万桶。EIA的每周数据显示，美国原油平均日需求量为2170万桶，远高于这一水平。  

彭博新闻社能源和大宗商品专栏作家哈维尔·布拉斯3月31日表示：“尽管每周的数据显示需求为日均2170万桶，但月度数据将其削减近200万桶，至日均1973万桶。” 

这一向下修改可能表明，美国的石油需求并不像今年早些时候许多分析师认为的那样强劲。  

在最新的每周评估中，EIA估计上周仅汽油日需求量就从863万桶降至850万桶。  

美国汽车协会（AAA）3月31日表示：“汽油需求的下降，加上汽油总库存量的增加，导致了汽油价格的下跌。 如果需求继续下降，而汽油库存量继续增加，那么全国汽油平均价格可能会继续走低。”AAA指出汽油价格在4月1日结束的那周里已小幅下跌。

油价统计软件GasBuddy石油分析主管帕特里克·德哈恩3月31日在美国宣布史上最大规模的战略石油储备原油释放后表示：“随着油价下跌，油价的下跌趋势将继续下去。” 德哈恩补充说：“下周美国几乎所有州都将看到汽油价格下跌，甚至下跌时间可能更久。”

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

U.S. Oil Demand Has Been Vastly Overestimated

● OilX: Weekly U.S. oil demand data by the Energy Information Administration has been significantly overestimated.

● The weekly demand estimates in March already showed that recent demand strength has been easing off.

● In the latest weekly assessment, the EIA estimated that gasoline demand alone fell from 8.63 million bpd to 8.5 million bpd last week.

Weekly U.S. oil demand data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has been significantly overestimated compared to the final monthly oil demand, oil data analytics firm OilX said on Friday.

"US weekly data significantly overestimated total monthly oil demand, not just in other oils, but also for road fuels," OilX said in a post on Twitter.

The weekly demand estimates in March already showed that recent demand strength has been easing off, according to the analytics company.

"This may turn out even weaker if recent errors vs monthlies continue in a similar fashion," OilX noted.  

petroleum supply monthly, published on Thursday, showed that total product supplied—the proxy for total oil demand—averaged 19.731 million barrels per day (bpd) in January.  

weekly data pegged American oil demand at a much higher level—21.7 million bpd.

"While weekly data pegged demand at 21.7m b/d, the monthly data cuts it back almost two million barrels a day to 19.73m b/d," Javier Blas, energy and commodities columnist at Bloomberg, said on Thursday,

The downward revision could be a sign that demand was not as strong as many analysts believed earlier this year.

In the latest weekly assessment, the EIA estimated that gasoline demand alone fell from 8.63 million bpd to 8.5 million bpd last week.

"The drop in gas demand, alongside growth in total stocks, contributes to price decreases. If demand continues to decline as gasoline stocks continue to build, the national average will likely continue to move lower," AAA said on Thursday, noting that gasoline prices have fallen this week slightly.

"The downdrafts will continue as oil drops after the SPR announcement," GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis, Patrick De Haan, said on Thursday after the U.S. announced the largest-ever SPR release. "Nearly all states will see falling gasprices over the next week and potentially beyond," De Haan added.