油气市场更新报告预计今年全球石油需求将继续增加

据世界石油4月1日报道，一份新的石油和天然气市场更新报告显示，美国油气行业有望看到持续的需求复苏和基础设施投资和就业法案的通过带来的积极影响，但美国的监管环境去年有所收紧。这份油气市场更新报告的撰写者叫帕特里克·麦克罗里，他与Lathrop GPM合作，使用美国能源信息署(EIA)的报告和数据、联邦政府和州政府的记录、国家和地方新闻，以及律师事务所从业人员的知识和经验。

麦克罗里表示，尽管到2022年为止，油气行业的市场环境已经发生了迅速变化，但该报告仍然具有重要意义。 他说：“大部分分析都集中在美国的监管环境和行业的长期发展趋势上。”这包括拜登政府继续关注气候变化和能源转型时预计会发生的变化。 报告指出，投资者的压力和公众的认知一直是，并将继续是环境、社会和治理(ESG)问题的重要驱动因素，主要关注“E”（环境）。

麦克罗里说，“我认为，油气行业如何处理ESG问题的更新尤为重要。 ESG现在是，而且我相信将继续是公众和投资者的热门话题。”“虽然这是一个热门话题，但我们试图帮助公众理解它在实践中的意义。这份报告提供了对油气行业如何执行ESG倡议的深刻理解。”

报告称，油气行业面临的ESG相关压力主要与降低碳排放有关。该报告指出，总部位于巴黎的国际能源署(IEA)制定了到2050年前实现净零排放的路线图，该路线图概述了实现温室气体减排的宏伟设想。

报告称，油气企业正在响应投资者对ESG的关注，从而采取了一些措施，如使用数字技术来增强它们报告ESG的能力。报告指出，联邦基础设施法案在很大程度上是有利于油气公司的，并补充说，它为道路改善提供了创纪录的资金，这应该会增加对沥青的需求，对石油来说也是一个好兆头。

根据该报告，2022年的长期需求看起来仍然乐观。 投资银行分析师预计，今年油价将继续走高，预计将处在每桶90美元-100美元的范围内。

国际能源署的一份报告预测，在2021年全球石油需求日增540万桶油当量的基础上，今年全球石油需求将日增330万桶油当量。 报告称，按照这个速度，全球石油日需求量将达到9940万桶，这将回到疫情前的水平。

尽管地缘政治冲突可能会促使一些投资者转向可再生能源，以减少对油气进口的依赖，但麦克罗里并不认为当前的能源价格会影响对可再生能源或替代能源的长期投资。

麦克罗里说，“因此，我认为我们不会看到计划中的资本支出大幅重新配置。在短期内，生产商肯定有利用有利能源价格的动机，许多生产商使用金融工具来对冲这种类型的波动，因此，重新配置资本以支持短期生产可能没有真正的、可识别的好处。”

麦克罗里说，许多能源生产商将替代能源技术视为对其油气资产的一种补充，这可能是长期的重点。 报告还分析了科罗拉多州、新墨西哥州、北达科他州、俄克拉何马州、得克萨斯州和怀俄明州监管环境的影响。

李峻 编译自 世界石油

原文如下：

Oil & gas market report expects continued demand increases this year

A new market update report shows the U.S. oil and gas (O&G) industry can expect to see continued demand recovery and positive effects from the passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, but regulatory environments tightened last year. The Oil & Gas Market Update report is authored by Patrick McRorie, a partner with Lathrop GPM, using U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports and data, federal and state government records, national and local news, and the knowledge and experience of the law firm’s practitioners, among other sources.

Though the oil and gas industry has already seen rapidly changing market conditions so far in 2022, the report continues to be relevant, McRorie said. “Much of the analysis focuses on the U.S. regulatory environment and longer-term trends in the industry,” he said. That includes the changes expected as the Biden administration continues to focus on climate change and energy transition. Investor pressure and public perception has been, and will continue to be, a significant driver of environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues, with primary focus on the “E,”

“I think the updates on how the industry is approaching ESG issues is especially important. ESG is, and I believe will continue to be, a hot topic, both with the public and with investors,” McRorie said. “While it is a hot topic of discussion, we are trying to help the audience understand what it means in practice. The report provides insight into how the industry is, or in certain cases isn’t, executing on ESG initiatives.”

The ESG-related pressure on O& G mainly relates to carbon-lowering initiatives, the report said, noting the Paris-based IEA’s Roadmap to Net Zero by 2050, which outlines ambitious scenarios to achieve greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

Companies are responding to investor attention on ESG, resulting in efforts like using digital technologies to enhance their ESG capabilities for reporting, according to the report. The federal infrastructure bill is largely O&G-friendly, the report notes, adding that it provides record funding for road improvements, which should increase demand for asphalt and is a good sign for oil.

Long-term demand for 2022 continues to look positive, according to the report. Investment bank analysts expect higher oil prices to continue this year, with forecasts in the $90-100/bbl range.

An IEA report referenced expects global oil demand to grow by 3.3 MMboed in 2022, following growth of 5.4 MMboed in 2021. At this pace, demand will reach 99.4 MMboed, which is a return to pre-pandemic levels, the report states.

While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may push some investors toward renewable energy to reduce reliance on  O&G, McRorie doesn’t think the current energy prices affect long-term investment in renewable or alternative fuel sources.

“As such, I don’t think we are going to see significant reallocations in planned capital expenditure,” McRorie said. “In the short-run, producers certainly possess an incentive to capitalize on favorable energy prices … Many producers use financial instruments to hedge against this type of volatility, so there may not be a real, recognizable benefit to reallocating capital in favor of short-term production.”

Many energy producers are looking at alternative energy technologies as a compliment to their O&G assets, which is likely done with long-term focus, he said. The report also breaks down implications of the regulatory environments in Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas and Wyoming. To see the full report,