IEA：今年全球天然气需求将略有下降

据美国钻井网站2022年4月19日报道，国际能源署（IEA）4月19日表示，由于价格上涨和军事冲突造成的市场供应中断，今年全球对天然气的需求将略有下降。

IEA在其最新季度数据中表示，今年全球天然气需求预计将小幅萎缩，而在1月份公布的上季度数据中，IEA预计今年全球天然气需求将增加1%。 

预估数量向下修正为1.765万亿立方英尺，大约相当于去年美国液化天然气（LNG）出口量的一半。去年全球天然气消费量增加4.5%。 

军事冲突给本已吃紧的天然气市场，尤其是欧洲的天然气市场，增添了进一步的压力和不确定性。 虽然目前欧盟还没有进口天然气的法律限制，但这场战争已促使欧盟各国政府寻求尽快减少对进口化石燃料的依赖。

3月3日，IEA发布了一份10点计划，概述了一系列措施，旨在在一年内将欧洲的天然气进口量减少三分之一以上，同时与欧盟的气候雄心保持一致。

现货天然气价格已飙升至创纪录高位，原因是欧洲推动天然气供应更加多样化，加大了对LNG货物的需求，其中一些从亚洲转移过来。2021-2022年供暖季期间，亚洲LNG现货平均价格是5年平均价格的4倍多。

在欧洲，尽管冬季气候温和，但现货LNG价格仍是5年平均水平的5倍。 

Sadamori说：“尽管随着欧洲减少对天然气的依赖，对LNG供应的激烈竞争已不可避免，但应对当今能源挑战的最佳和最持久的解决方案将是加快各经济体的能源效率提高，并加快从化石燃料向低碳能源的转型， 包括国内生产的低碳气体。”

能源生产大国是欧洲最大的天然气供应国，去年满足该地区33%的天然气需求，高于2009年的25%。

今年欧洲的天然气消费量预计将下降近6%。在亚洲，今年天然气消费量预计将增加3%，比去年的7%明显放缓。  

预计美洲、非洲和中东等地区受天然气市场波动的直接影响较小，因为这些地区主要依赖国内天然气生产。但他们仍然受到地缘政治军事冲突带来的更广泛经济影响的影响，包括大宗商品价格上涨、购买力下降，以及由于商业信心下降而导致的投资减少。  

李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站

原文如下：

Global Natural Gas Demand Set To Decline Slightly In 2022

The world’s demand for natural gas is set to decline slightly in 2022 due to higher prices and market disruptions , the International Energy Agency said.

In its latest quarterly update, IEA said that it expected a small contraction in global gas demand compared with its earlier forecast of 1 percent growth in the previous quarterly update published in January.

The downward revision to the forecast amounts to 1.765 trillion cubic feet, the equivalent of about half of last year’s U.S. LNG exports. Global natural gas consumption grew by 4.5 percent in 2021.

It has added further pressure and uncertainty to an already tight natural gas market, especially in Europe. While there are no legal restrictions on importing Russian natural gas to the European Union at this point, the war has pushed EU governments to seek to reduce their dependence on fossil fuel imports as quickly as possible.

The IEA published a 10-Point Plan on March 3 outlining a suite of measures to reduce the volume of gas imports into Europe by over a third within a year while remaining consistent with the EU’s climate ambitions.

Spot gas prices have soared to record highs as Europe’s push for a more diversified natural gas supply has intensified demand for LNG cargoes, with some being diverted away from Asia. Average spot LNG prices in Asia during the 2021-22 heating season were more than four times their five-year average.

In Europe, spot LNG prices were five times their five-year average, despite a mild winter. The prices were also boosted, to drastically reduce short-term gas sales to Europe, which had left European storage levels 17 percent below their five-year average at the start of the European heating season.

“While the stiffer competition for LNG supplies is inevitable as Europe reduces its reliance on Russian gas, the best and most lasting solution to today’s energy challenges would be to accelerate energy efficiency improvements across our economies and accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels towards low-carbon sources of energy, including domestically produced low-carbon gases,” Sadamori added.

It is Europe’s largest natural gas supplier, meeting 33 percent of the region’s demand in 2021, up from 25 percent in 2009. 

Natural gas consumption this year is expected to fall by close to 6 percent in Europe. In Asia, it is expected to grow by 3 percent in 2022, a marked slowdown from a growth of 7 percent in 2021.

Regions such as the Americas, Africa, and the Middle East are expected to be affected less directly by gas market volatility, as they principally rely on domestic gas production.

But they are nonetheless being affected by the wider economic impacts including rising commodity prices, weaker purchasing power, and lower investment due to dented business confidence.