据阿拉伯贸易4月17日消息，根据国际能源署(IEA)最新的季度更新，由于价格上涨和市场混乱，2022年世界对天然气的需求将略有下降。
与国际能源署在1月份发布的上一季度更新中预测的1%增长相比，预计全球天然气需求将小幅收缩。预测值下调500亿立方米，相当于去年美国液化天然气出口量的一半左右。2021年全球天然气消费量增长了4.5%。
本已紧张的天然气市场增加了进一步的压力和不确定性，尤其是在欧洲。虽然目前对向欧盟进口大国天然气没有法律限制，但战争已促使欧盟各国政府寻求尽快减少对大国化石燃料进口的依赖。
由于欧洲推动更加多样化的天然气供应，加剧了对液化天然气货物的需求，其中一些货物已从亚洲转移，现货天然气价格飙升至历史新高。2021年至2022年供暖季节，亚洲的平均现货液化天然气价格是五年平均水平的四倍多。
在欧洲，尽管冬季气候温和，液化天然气现货价格仍是五年平均水平的五倍。
国际能源署能源市场与安全主管Keisuke Sadamori说：“这引发了重大的能源供应和安全危机。”
“虽然随着欧洲减少对大国天然气的依赖，液化天然气供应的激烈竞争是不可避免的，但应对当今能源挑战的最佳和最持久的解决方案将是加快我们经济体的能源效率提高，并加速从化石燃料向低碳能源的过渡，包括国内生产的低碳气体。”
欧洲今年的天然气消费量预计将下降近6%。在亚洲，预计2022年将增长3%，与2021年7%的增长相比明显放缓。预计美洲、非洲和中东等地区受天然气市场波动的直接影响较小，因为它们主要依靠国内天然气生产。
但国际能源署的报告称，更广泛经济影响仍在继续，包括商品价格上涨、购买力下降以及商业信心下降导致的投资减少。
祝精燕 摘译自 阿拉伯贸易
原文如下：
Natural gas demand set to edge down in 2022: IEA
The world’s demand for natural gas is set to decline slightly in 2022 as a result of higher prices and market disruptions, according to the International Energy Agency’s l(IEA) latest quarterly update.
The expected small contraction in global gas demand compares with the IEA’s earlier forecast of 1% growth in the previous quarterly update published in January. The downward revision to the forecast amounts to 50 billion cum, the equivalent of about half of last year’s US liquefied natural gas exports. Global natural gas consumption grew by 4.5% in 2021.
It has added further pressure and uncertainty to an already tight natural gas market, especially in Europe. While there are no legal restrictions on importing natural gas to the European Union at this point, the war has pushed EU governments to seek to reduce their dependence on Russian fossil fuel imports as quickly as possible.
Spot gas prices have soared to record highs as Europe’s push for more diversified natural gas supply has intensified demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes, with some being diverted away from Asia. Average spot LNG prices in Asia during the 2021-22 heating season were more than four times their five-year average.
In Europe, spot LNG prices were five times their five-year average, in spite of a mild winter. The prices were also boosted by moves,to drastically reduce short-term gas sales to Europe, which had left European storage levels 17% below their five-year average at the start of the European heating season.
“It has also triggered a major energy supply and security crisis,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA Director for Energy Markets and Security.
“While stiffer competition for LNG supplies is inevitable as Europe reduces its reliance on gas, the best and most lasting solution to today’s energy challenges would be to accelerate energy efficiency improvements across our economies and accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels towards low-carbon sources of energy, including domestically produced low-carbon gases.”
Natural gas consumption this year is expected to fall by close to 6% in Europe. In Asia, it is expected to grow by 3% in 2022, a marked slowdown from growth of 7% in 2021. Regions such as the Americas, Africa and the Middle East are expected to be affected less directly by gas market volatility, as they principally rely on domestic gas production.
But they are nonetheless being affected by the wider economic impacts including rising commodity prices, weaker purchasing power and lower investment due to dented business confidence, the IEA report said.
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