据美国油价网2022年4月22日报道，渣打银行分析师在本周发给美国钻井网站的一份新报告中预测，今年全球石油日总需求量将维持在1亿桶以下。
渣打银行分析师在报告中预计全球石油日需求将从去年的9750万桶增加到今年的9890万桶。 从具体季度来看，渣打银行分析师预计今年第二季度全球石油日需求将达到9730万桶，第三季度日需求将达到9940万桶，第四季度日需求将达到1.005亿桶。
报告称，今年经合组织石油日需求将同比增加107万桶，占今年全球石油日需求总预测量的4580万桶，而非经合组织石油日需求将增加37万桶，占总预测量的5310万桶。北美日需求预计将同比增加166万桶，占总预测量的2680万桶。
渣打银行的报告强调，国际能源署(IEA)和美国能源信息署(EIA)对今年全球石油需求的预测也显示，今年全球石油日需求量将低于1亿桶。
IEA预计这一数字将从去年日需求量的9750万桶增加到今年的9940万桶，EIA预计今年全球石油日需求量将从去年的9740万桶增加到9980万桶。
需求面临显著下行风险
渣打银行分析师在报告中警告称，他们认为今年全球石油需求增长存在显著下行的风险，并表示，他们不排除今年全球石油需求增长为负值的可能性。
分析师在报告中表示，“有几个区域令人担忧”，“我们认为今年美国的石油需求可能令人失望”。
渣打银行分析师在报告中继续表示：“我们对美国石油需求的担忧意味着，我们对今年全球石油需求的增长预测(46.4万桶/天)远低于EIA的预测(79.6万桶/天)，但我们仍比IEA的预测(28万桶/天)更乐观。”
“此外，无论是经合组织经济体还是非经合组织经济体，都存在价格效应，早期数据显示，印度的石油需求可能对油价飙升特别敏感。”分析师如是表示。
波动性盛行
渣打银行分析师在日前发给美国钻井网站的另一份报告中指出，油价波动与关键基本指标估值的波动相呼应。
渣打银行分析师们在报告中表示：“在爆发军事冲突、经济不确定性、高价格和疫情措施之后，石油交易商和预测者一直试图衡量供需下降的相对规模。”
分析师补充称：“我们认为，大国石油产量下滑幅度很大，但全球石油需求下滑的可能性也很大。”
李峻 编译自 美国油价网
原文如下：
2022 Oil Demand Expected to Stay Below 100MM Barrels Per Day
In a new report sent to Rigzone this week, Standard Chartered forecasted that overall 2022 global oil demand will stay below 100 million barrels per day.
In the report, the company projected that demand will increase from 97.5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2021 to 98.9 MMbpd this year. Looking at specific quarters, the forecast expects second quarter demand to come in at 97.3 MMbpd, third quarter demand to come in at 99.4 MMbpd, and fourth quarter demand to come in at 100.5 MMbpd.
OECD oil demand will rise by 1.07 MMbpd year on year and account for 45.8 MMbpd of the total 2022 forecast, while non-OECD demand will rise by 0.37 MMbpd and account for the remaining 53.1 MMbpd, according to the report. North America demand is expected to rise by 1.66 MMbpd year on year and make up 26.8 MMbpd of the 2022 forecast.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) and Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2022 oil demand forecasts, which were highlighted in Standard Chartered’s report, also see overall global oil demand coming in below 100 MMbpd this year.
The IEA expects this figure to rise from 97.5 MMbpd in 2021 to 99.4 MMbpd in 2022 and the EIA expects demand to increase from 97.4 MMbpd in 2021 to 99.8 MMbpd in 2022.
Significant Downside Risk to Demand
Standard Chartered analysts warned in the company’s report that they think there is a significant downside risk to 2022 oil demand growth and stated that they do not discount the possibility that oil demand growth will be negative.
“There are several areas of concern,” the analysts stated in the report.
“We think U.S. oil demand is likely to disappoint; January data proved very weak after revision and prompter unrevised data for March and April suggests that the weakness has continued,” the analysts added.
“Our concerns about U.S. demand mean our 2022 growth forecast (464,000 barrels per day) is well below the EIA’s (796,000 barrels per day), although we are still more optimistic than the IEA (280,000 barrels per day),” the analysts continued.
“In addition, there are price effects across both OECD and non-OECD economies, with early data suggesting that Indian oil demand may have proved particularly sensitive to the spike in prices,” the analysts stated.
Volatility Prevails
In a separate report sent to Rigzone last week, analysts at Standard Chartered noted that oil price volatility had been mirrored by volatility in estimates of key fundamental indicators.
“Oil traders and forecasters have been attempting to gauge the relative sizes of the supply and demand downside in the wake of war, economic uncertainty, high prices and anti-Covid measures,” the analysts stated in the report.
“Our view is that the downside to oil output is large, but so is the potential downside to demand,” the analysts added.
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