能源危机如何成为氢出口国的福音

据伍德麦肯兹4月21日报道，如果没有低碳氢，世界将无法在2050年实现净零排放。这种超级万能的能源载体将在电力、钢铁和化肥等难以减排的高排放行业发挥关键作用。对于依赖进口石油、天然气和煤炭的国家来说，这也可以成为解决方案之一，以加强能源安全。

4月27日和28日在伦敦召开的氢会议将详细研究这些重大主题，其中包括1.4万亿美元的机遇，即低碳氢生产，包括蓝氢和绿氢，如何从今天几乎为零扩大到5亿吨，到2050年实现占全球一次能源结构的15%。这正是全球需要努力为之实现的，加速能源转型方案实现气温升高不超过1.5°C。氢分析师Bridget van Dorsten介绍了她对氢行业发展的最新思考。

第一，全球对低碳氢供应的投资正在加大。第一季度宣布了75个新项目，总产能为1110万吨/年，接近季度纪录。美国主导了第一季度的项目公告，占51%，而西班牙(20%)、巴拉圭(11%)和埃及(8%)则反映了氢能在全球的发展趋势。

这些新项目使全球天然气管道总量增加了20%，达到6400万吨/年，其中近三分之二位于包括澳大利亚、英国、美国和荷兰在内的6个主要国家。

长期以来，利用可再生电力从水中电解出的绿氢一直是主导项目，在2018年至2021年期间占到所有项目的80%。剩下部分是通过将天然气分解成氢气和二氧化碳产生的蓝氢，这种蓝氢安装了碳捕获和封存装置。

在2022年第一季度，我们看到了一个有趣的转变，即绿氢项目占到项目中的95%，而蓝氢项目仅占5%。这可能是第一季度做出投资决定的项目具有的特殊性，但蓝氢投资放缓将为CCS开发者敲响警钟，特别是在欧洲，目前所有CCS项目一半都是制蓝氢使用的。

第二，能源危机将刺激国际氢气贸易。氢是欧洲未来能源结构核心，在地缘政治冲突发生后，欧洲摆脱对进口天然气依赖之际，氢的地位更是如此。但未来几年天然气和电力价格上涨，可能会削弱欧洲蓝氢和绿氢的经济效益。其结果将是投资减少，加强欧洲能源安全所需的国内氢气项目出现供小于求。

欧洲的损失将是氢出口国的收益。在天然气和电力价格相对稳定、生产成本较低的市场，包括中东、北非、澳大利亚和美国的生产商将成为赢家。

第三，电解器供应商正在迅速建立“超级工厂”规模设施，规模一直在上升。供应商有45吉瓦项目积压，而到2023年，目前的生产能力每年只能支持14吉瓦，不过，这种不匹配是任何新兴行业都会出现的典型现象。

具体政策将进一步提高门槛。英国政府最近宣布将其氢气产能目标从500万千瓦增加一倍至1000万千瓦，这也向国内供应链发出了强烈信号。

第四，全球政策正在为氢能增长奠定基础。去年11月的第26次缔约方会议是各国设定净零目标的催化剂，对许多国家来说，氢气正在成为交付的核心部分。目前，已有超过75个国家的政府宣布了不同发展阶段的氢能计划、路线图、战略和目标。印度(扩大氢政策)、克罗地亚(路线图)、秘鲁(路线图开发)和丹麦(路线图澄清)都在2022年第一季度提出了氢政策。

第五，承购协议有助于行业的早期融资，对降低项目风险至关重要。作为迄今为止最大的协议之一，澳大利亚的Fortescue Future Industries和德国公用事业公司E.ON签署了谅解备忘录，在2030年之前交付500万吨。预计，随着氢气行业的成熟，承购协议将激增，商业安排将演变为长期合同。

王佳晶 摘译自 伍德麦肯兹

原文如下：

How the energy crisis is a boon for hydrogen exporters

The world won’t get to net zero by 2050 without low-carbon hydrogen. This super-versatile energy carrier will have a critical role in decarbonising hard-to-abate, high-emissions sectors including power, steel and fertiliser. It can also be part of the solution for countries reliant on imported oil, gas and coal to bolster energy security.

Our Hydrogen Conference on 27 and 28 April in London will examine the big themes in detail. Among these is the US$1.4 trillion growth opportunity: how low-carbon hydrogen production, blue and green, scales up from almost zero today to 0.5 Bt, meeting 15% of the global primary energy mix by 2050. That’s what needs to happen in AET-1.5, our accelerated energy transition scenario to get the world on a 1.5 °C pathway. Bridget van Dorsten, Hydrogen Analyst, is speaking at the conference and took me through her latest thoughts on how the industry is developing.

First, global investment in low-carbon hydrogen supply is ramping up. There were 75 new project announcements in Q1, totalling 11.1 mmtpa of new capacity, close to a quarterly record. The US (51%) dominated the Q1 project announcements, while Spain (20%), Paraguay (11%) and Egypt (8%) give a sense of how hydrogen is going global.

These new projects lifted the cumulative global pipeline by 20% to 64 mmtpa, of which almost two-thirds are in the six leading countries including Australia, the UK, the US and the Netherlands.

Green hydrogen, electrolysed from water using renewable electricity, has long dominated the project pipeline, accounting for 80% of all projects from 2018 to 2021. Blue hydrogen, produced by splitting natural gas into hydrogen and CO2 and fitted with carbon capture and storage, has accounted for the rest.

Q1 2022 saw an intriguing shift with green hydrogen projects accounting for 95% of those added to the project pipeline, with blue hydrogen just 5%. This may prove to be a quirk of the flow of projects reaching investment decisions in Q1. But the slowdown in blue hydrogen investment will set alarm bells ringing for CCS developers, particularly in Europe where half of all current CCS projects are for blue hydrogen use cases.

Second, the energy crisis will stimulate international trade in hydrogen. Hydrogen is central to Europe’s future energy mix, even more so as it pivots away from dependence on imported gas following the war. But elevated gas and power prices over the next several years threaten to weaken the economics of blue and green hydrogen in Europe. The result will be less investment and a deficit in the domestic hydrogen projects required to strengthen Europe’s energy security.

Europe’s loss will be hydrogen exporters’ gain. Producers in markets with relatively stable gas and power prices and lower costs of production – including the Middle East, North Africa, Australia and the US – will be among the winners.

Third, electrolyser vendors are moving quickly to build “gigafactory”-scale facilities, but the size of the prize keeps moving up. Vendors have a project backlog of 45 GWel whereas current manufacturing capacity will only support 14 GWel annually by 2023. We think such mismatches are typical of any nascent industry.

Concrete policy will lift the bar further. The UK government recently announced a doubling of its hydrogen capacity target from 5 GW to 10 GW. That also sends a strong signal for the domestic supply chain to put down roots.

Fourth, policy globally is laying the foundations for growth. COP26 last November was the catalyst for countries to set net zero targets and for many, hydrogen is becoming a central part of the delivery. More than 75 governments have now announced hydrogen plans, roadmaps, strategies and goals at various stages of development. India (expansion of hydrogen policy), Croatia (roadmap), Peru (roadmap development) and Denmark (roadmap clarification) all advanced a hydrogen policy in Q1 2022.

Lastly, offtake agreements are helping the early-stage financing of the industry and are vital to de-risking projects. In one of the biggest agreements so far, Australia-based Fortescue Future Industries and German utility E.ON signed an MoU to deliver 5 Mtpa by 2030. We expect offtake agreements to proliferate and for commercial arrangements to evolve into long-term contracts as the industry matures.