美国液化天然气繁荣面临的难题

• 欧洲迫切希望取代生产大国的天然气，而该国的天然气已经推动美国尽可能多地出口液化天然气。  

• 美国已经批准12个新的液化天然气项目，但由于长期需求的不确定性，这些新项目不太可能全部完成。  

• 虽然欧洲目前急需天然气，但其长期目标是摆脱化石燃料，这意味着其中一些新项目在经济上属于不可行项目。 

据美国油价网4月19日报道，美国的液化天然气出口在全球能源危机和欧洲减少对能源生产大国天然气依赖的努力下蓬勃发展。 由于美国打算帮助欧洲减少对该国天然气的依赖，美国今年的天然气出口量跃升至历史最高水平。 由于天然气需求的增长，美国墨西哥湾沿岸的液化天然气出口设施正在满负荷运转，已无法比现在运送更多的液化天然气——至少现在不行。

许多液化天然气出口工厂的项目正在考虑中，或者已经获得美国当局批准，但正在等待最终投资决定。 虽然目前液化天然气的需求——尤其是在欧洲的液化天然气需求——依然强劲，而且很可能吸引通常将运往亚洲的货物，欧洲为摆脱对该国天然气的依赖所采取的措施包括，从长远来看减少天然气的使用，加大对可再生能源的投入，以便在2050年前实现气候中和的目标。

这对美国液化天然气开发商来说可不是什么好消息，他们需要数十年的长期供应承诺和购买协议，以便为需要数年才能建成的数十亿美元项目筹集投资。

从水力压裂到甲烷泄漏，对液化天然气供应链温室气体排放的环境担忧，也可能限制美国从现在起10到20年将向欧洲输送液化天然气的数量。  

美国液化天然气出口激增  

目前，美国的液化天然气出口正在蓬勃发展，大部分出口到欧洲，因为那里的价格最高，需求最强劲。 在去年秋季开始的能源危机中，甚至在爆发军事冲突之前，欧洲对液化天然气的需求就很高。 然而，在战争开始后，由于欧盟誓言在年底前将欧盟对能源生产大国天然气的需求减少三分之二，需求出现了急剧下降。

根据美国能源信息署（EIA）的最新数据，美国1月份液化天然气出口创历史新高。 美国能源部最新的《液化天然气月报》显示，美国今年2月份的液化天然气出口量比1月份下降10.5%，但比去年2月份增加51.9%。 今年2月份，占到美国液化天然气出口总量57.5%的5个最大目的地国家，分别是土耳其、法国、西班牙、荷兰和韩国。2月份，美国液化天然气的最大亚洲买家仅排在欧洲和地中海目的地之后，排名第五。 

美国已经开始拥有世界上最大的液化天然气出口能力，超过澳大利亚和卡塔尔，路易斯安那州卡梅伦的卡尔克苏帕斯液化天然气生产厂的第一批货物已在3月份从美国液化天然气开发商Venture Global LNG旗下新启用的设施出发。

美国的液化天然气出口工厂正在满负荷运转，因此时下几乎没有增加出货量的产能。 为了获得更多的美国液化天然气，欧洲必须依赖从亚洲转过来的货物，因为欧洲的价格更高，而且欧盟希望尽快取代该国的供应。 这种情况之所以发生，是因为亚洲许多对价格敏感的买家正在撤出现货市场。

并非所有拟议的液化天然气项目可能看到曙光

液化天然气出口设施需要锁定长期采购协议，以确保这些昂贵项目的可行性。尽管近几个月来与亚洲大卖家的协议签署速度加快，但欧洲的长期能源政策仍植根于到2030年前将天然气使用量减少30%的理念，以实现气候目标。  

在美国，有十几个项目得到了联邦能源管理委员会(FERC)的批准，但还没有动工，因为这些项目需要最终投资决定、投资者或长期客户。另外6个项目已经提交给FERC，另外两个项目正处在申报前阶段。 

美国战略与国际研究中心能源与地缘政治项目詹姆斯·R·史莱辛格主席Nikos Tsafos在今年3月份曾表示：“拥有欧洲客户，尤其是如果得到公共资金的支持，美国可能很容易创造出一大笔液化天然气供应。”

然而，建设一个新项目需要长达5年的时间，所有新项目的规划都有20年的投资期限和长达20年的稳定销售合同。 

“对于一家希望在2050年前实现欧洲大陆气候中和目标的欧洲公司来说，这些时间尺度带来了一个难题。欧洲客户在2025年或2030年可能需要天然气，但不会在2040年，也可能不会在2045年。 这种不匹配阻碍了美国液化天然气项目在欧洲的帮助下向前发展。”

Tsafos在4月份曾对英国《金融时报》表示：“有一个大客户想要液化天然气，但你不太确定能坚持多久。”欧洲现在希望获得大量非能源生产大国的天然气，但理想情况下，欧洲不希望10年或20年后天然气供应增加。 就美国而言，由于其运营的出口设施产能已达到极限，目前无法发运更多的液化天然气。 对于未来的项目来说，欧洲2050年的净零目标和整体减少天然气使用的努力对美国开发商来说不是好消息，他们正在寻求长期的购买交易和投资，将他们的计划带入运营项目。 

美国领先的液化天然气出口商切尼尔能源公司总裁兼首席执行官Jack Fusco告诉英国《金融时报》记者：“我希望我能给欧洲带来更好的消息，但一个大项目需要…… 至少5年多的时间才能完成。”

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

The Problem With America’s LNG Boom

·     Europe is desperate to replace gas, which has driven the U.S. to export as much LNG as it possibly can.

·    12 new LNG projects in the U.S. have already been approved, but they are unlikely to all be completed due to long-term uncertainty.

·     While Europe is currently desperate for natural gas, its long-term goal is to move away from fossil fuels, which means some of these projects aren’t economically viable.

America’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are booming amid a global energy crisis and a European drive to wean itself off Russian gas. U.S. shipments of natural gas have jumped to all-time highs this year as the United States is intent on helping Europe cut its dependence on its gas. As demand for natural gas grows, export facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast are operating at capacity and cannot ship more LNG than they are currently doing—at least not now.  

Many projects for LNG export plants are under consideration or are already approved by authorities but awaiting final investment decisions (FIDs). While current LNG demand, especially in Europe, remains strong and is likely to draw cargoes that would have typically gone to Asia, Europe’s push to free itself from Russian gas includes reducing gas use in the long term and doubling down on renewables to reach its climate neutrality goal by 2050. 

This is hardly good news for American LNG developers, who need long-term supply commitments and purchase agreements for decades in order to raise investments for the multi-billion projects that take years to build.

Environmental concerns about the greenhouse gas emissions of the LNG supply chain, from fracking to methane leaks, could also put a limit on the amount of LNG America will be able to send to Europe a decade or two from now. 

U.S. LNG Exports Booming

Right now, U.S. LNG exports are booming, and most are going to Europe, where the prices are the highest and demand is the strongest. Amid the energy crisis that began last autumn, LNG demand was high in Europe even before the war. After the war started, however, demand went off the charts as the European Union vowed to reduce EU demand for gas by two-thirds before the end of the year. 

U.S. LNG exports hit a record high in January, according to the latest EIA data. In February, exports decreased by 10.5 percent from January 2022 but jumped by 51.9 percent compared to February 2021, the Department of Energy’s latest LNG Monthly showed. The top five countries of destination, representing 57.5 percent of total U.S. LNG exports in February 2022, were Turkey, France, Spain, the Netherlands, and South Korea. The top Asian buyer of U.S. LNG in February came only fifth behind destinations in Europe and the Mediterranean. 

The U.S. is already on course to have the largest LNG export capacity in the world, ahead of Australia and Qatar, with the first cargo produced at Calcasieu Pass LNG in Cameron, Louisiana, having departed from Venture Global LNG’s newly-commissioned facility last month. 

LNG export plants are running at capacity in the U.S., so there is little room for increased shipments. To secure more American LNG, Europe must rely on cargoes being redirected from Asia due to the higher prices in Europe and the EU’s motivation to replace as much supply as it can as soon as possible. This is happening right now since many price-sensitive buyers in Asia are backing out of the spot market. 

Not All Proposed LNG Projects May See The Light Of Day

Facilities need to lock in long-term purchase deals to secure the viability of the expensive projects, and while deal-signing with the big Asian barginer has accelerated in recent months, Europe’s long-term energy policy remains rooted in the idea of reducing gas use by 30 percent by 2030 to reach climate goals.  

In the United States, there are a dozen projects approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) but not under construction yet as they need a final investment decision, investors, or long-term customers. Another six projects have been proposed to FERC, and two others are in the pre-filing stage.  

“Having European customers, especially if supported by public money, could easily create a huge tranche of LNG supply,” Nikos Tsafos, a James R. Schlesinger Chair in Energy and Geopolitics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote last month. 

However, it takes up to five years to build a new project, and all new projects are planned with a 20-year investment horizon and firm sale contracts of up to 20 years. 

“For a European company that wants to be aligned with the continent’s target for climate neutrality by 2050, these time scales present a problem. A European customer might want gas in 2025 or 2030, but not in 2040 and likely not by 2045. This mismatch prevents U.S. LNG projects from moving forward with European help,” Tsafos noted. 

“There’s a big customer out there that wants LNG, but you’re not quite sure for how long,” Tsafos told the Financial Times this month.  

Europe wants a lot of non-Russian gas now, but, ideally, it wants to not want an increased gas supply a decade or two from now. The U.S., for its part, cannot currently ship more LNG than it is already doing as its operating export facilities are maxed out. For future projects, Europe’s 2050 net-zero goal and a push to reduce gas use overall is not good news for U.S. developers looking at long-term purchase deals and investments to bring their plans to operating projects. 

“I wish I had better news for Europe but it’s going to take . . . at least five-plus years to get anything of size done,” Jack Fusco, president and CEO of the leading U.S. LNG exporter, Cheniere Energy, told FT.