美国提高石油产量的成本走高

近年来，美国页岩油生产商实行了惊人的资本约束。

尽管市场呼吁美国石油公司增加产量，但许多生产商仍受到成本上升和供应链瓶颈的困扰。

Pioneer首席执行官斯科特·谢菲尔德（Scott Sheffield）指出，“无论油价是150美元/桶、200美元/桶还是100美元/桶，我们都不会改变我们的增产计划”。

据今日油价4月21日报道，由于大多数上市公司继续保持资本约束，并处理积压的已钻未完井(DUCs)，美国页岩油生产商可能需要更多时间才能将更多的原油推向市场。新井的钻探需要更多的资本支出，需要雇佣钻井人员和服务供应商，而目前页岩地区的瓶颈导致供应短缺。因此，美国致密油产量的增长速度不像之前的上升周期那样快，也肯定不如政府希望的那样快，要知道，政府希望可以降低这个8年来最高的国内汽油价格。所有预测都表明，美国今年的石油产量将高于2021年，但增长速度可能低于几个月前的预期。

自疫情暴发导致行业暴跌以来，许多生产商依靠DUC库存来利用2014年以来最高的国际原油价格。

因此，美国能源信息署(EIA)在最新月度钻井生产率报告中表示，在2022年3月，DUC数量下降到4273个。自2021年初以来，七个关键页岩区域的DUC数量下降了42%。仅在二叠纪盆地，3月份的DUC数量就比2月份减少了71个，至1309个，这是自2017年初以来的最低数字。

二叠纪盆地的DUC数量减至五年内最低水平，这表明美国生产商从现在开始就需要投入更多的资金来钻新井。

但说起来容易做起来难。

私营生产商提高了产量和钻井，但他们乃至整个页岩供应链都面临生产瓶颈，以及劳动力、压裂砂、钢铁价格和服务供应商费率等方方面面的成本膨胀。例如，即使那些想要比其他公司增产更多的公司，也将不得不应对寻找并支付熟练劳动力的经济问题，或者以高价购买压裂砂。

EIA在钻井产能报告中下调了对页岩油增长的预期。4月日产量为851.7万桶，低于3月报告预估的8708万桶。3月，EIA预计4月二叠纪盆地石油产量将增长至520.8万桶/天。但在4月的最新报告中，该预估已下修至505.5万桶，5月日产量料增加8.2万桶至513.7万桶。

总而言之，美国石油行业希望政府对该行业做出更长期的承诺，并表示尽管有各种要求和呼吁，但其仍不能过快地提高产量。行业高管表示，大型页岩油公司的资本支出约束和供应链瓶颈将限制美国石油产量增长。

3月，康菲石油公司首席执行官瑞安·兰斯（Ryan Lance）表示，即使公司即刻决定开采更多的石油，第一滴新石油也将在8到12个月内出现。

西方石油公司首席执行官维姬·霍卢布（Vicki Hollub）表示，“我们从未遇到过需要增产的情况，事实上，供应链瓶颈不仅是石油行业面临的难题，世界上每个行业的供应链都受到了疫情的影响”。

先锋自然资源公司(Pioneer Natural Resources)首席执行官斯科特•谢菲尔德(Scott Sheffield)表示，即使油价达到每桶200美元，也不足以激励页岩巨头进行超出计划的钻探。

谢菲尔德表示，“无论油价是每桶150美元、200美元还是100美元的价格，我们都不会改变增长计划。如果政府希望我们增加产量，我只是觉得这个行业无论如何都增加不了产量”。

RBN Energy表示，在上市页岩油公司，2022年的资本预算比2021年平均增加了23%。大宗商品分析师表示，“这一涨幅看似可观，但其中大约15个百分点来自油田服务价格的上涨”。

RBN能源公司4月初曾指出，“生产商计划增加23%的资本支出和8%的产量，但实际情况低于预期。生产商的计划并不代表他们在过去几年一直进行的稳步型投资战略转变”。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

It's Getting Increasingly Expensive To Boost U.S. Oil Production

U.S. shale producers have exercised astonishing capital discipline in recent years.

Despite calls on U.S. oil firms to ramp up production, many producers are being plagued by rising costs and supply chain bottlenecks.

"Whether it's $150 oil, $200 oil, or $100 oil, we're not going to change our growth plans," Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield noted.

U.S. shale producers could take more time to bring higher volumes of crude oil to the market than previously expected as most public companies continue to keep capital discipline and go through their backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs). The drilling of new wells needs more capital expenditure and hiring rig crews and services providers that are currently in short supply amid bottlenecks in the shale patch. 

As a result, U.S. tight oil production is not rising as fast as in previous upcycles, and surely not as quick as the Biden Administration wants as it looks to lower the highest gasoline prices in America in eight years. All forecasts point to U.S. oil production rising this year compared to 2021, but growth will likely happen at a slower pace than expected a few months ago. 

Since the COVID-inflicted slump in the industry, many producers have relied on their DUC inventory to take advantage of the highest international crude oil prices since 2014.

So, the number of DUCs fell to 4,273 in March 2022, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest monthly Drilling Productivity Report this week. The number of DUCs in the seven key shale regions is now down by 42 percent since the beginning of 2021. In the Permian alone, the number of DUCs dropped by 71 from February to stand at 1,309 in March—that's the lowest figure since early 2017. 

The lowest number of DUCs in the Permian in half a decade suggests that now U.S. producers will have to spend more money on drilling new wells from the very start compared to the lower-cost DUC inventory where the well is already drilled. 

That's easier said than done.  

Private producers have boosted production and drilling, but they—as well as the entire shale patch—face supply chain bottlenecks and cost inflation in everything from labor, frac sand, steel prices, and services provider rates. Even those who want to grow production more than the others will have to contend with the economics of finding and paying a skilled workforce or procure frac sand at high prices, for example. 

The EIA tempered its shale growth expectations in the Drilling Productivity Report. April production is now seen at 8.517 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 8.708 million bpd production for April expected in last month's report. In March, the EIA expected oil output in the Permian to grow to 5.208 million bpd in April. But in the latest report this month, the estimate is now revised down to 5.055 million bpd, with May output expected to rise by 82,000 bpd to 5.137 million bpd. 

All in all, the U.S. oil industry seeks a longer-term commitment to the sector from the Administration and says that despite all pleas and calls, it simply cannot raise production too fast, too soon. Capex discipline from the largest shale firms and supply chain bottlenecks will cap U.S. oil production growth, industry executives say.

Even if ConocoPhillips decided to pump more oil today, the first drop of new oil would come within eight to 12 months, CEO Ryan Lance told CNBC last month. 

Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub said at the CERAWeek conference in early March: "We've never faced a scenario where we need to grow production, when actually supply chains not only in our industry but every industry in the world [are] being impacted by the pandemic."

Not even $200 oil would incentivize shale giant Pioneer Natural Resources to drill beyond what it has planned for, according to chief executive Scott Sheffield. 

"Whether it's $150 oil, $200 oil, or $100 oil, we're not going to change our growth plans," Sheffield told Bloomberg Television in an interview just before Russia invaded Ukraine. "If the president wants us to grow, I just don't think the industry can grow anyway," Sheffield added.

At public shale firms, capital budgets for 2022 are now up by an average of 23 percent over 2021, RBN Energy says. 

"That increase seems substantial, but about two-thirds (15%) results from oilfield service inflation," the commodity analysts said.  

"There is less than meets the eye in producers' planned 23% capex increase and 8% boost in production," RBN Energy noted earlier this month. 

Producers' "plans do not represent a strategic shift from the maintenance-level investments they've been making the past few years."