美国页岩行业或将从亏损转向获得创纪录现金流

美国页岩行业的重点是在2022年向股东返还资本 

德勤：仅2022年页岩气区块就将获得总计1720亿美元巨额自由现金流 

几家大型页岩油气生产商不会在2022年增加产量 

据油价网5月8日报道，多年来，美国页岩行业投入大量资金来提高产量，从而压低了油价。在疫情造成的暴跌中，美国页岩行业凭借坚定的资本纪律，加上油价在100美元以上，为美国石油生产商带来了创纪录的现金流。最大的页岩油气生产商已经将多年的现金流失历史抛在脑后，专注于将几个月来创纪录的现金流返还给股东。最近，上市公司在公布第一季度数据时表示，开发新钻井已不再是页岩气开采的主要目标，它们将继续严格控制支出，只会有温和的产量增长。

而投资者也获取了相应回报——截至目前，标准普尔500指数年回报率最高的20家公司中，大多数是石油公司，包括西方石油公司、Coterra Energy、瓦莱罗能源公司、马拉松石油公司、阿帕奇公司、哈里伯顿公司、戴文能源公司、赫斯公司、马拉松原油公司、埃克森美孚公司、康菲石油公司、雪佛龙公司、斯伦贝谢公司、依欧格资源公司、先锋自然资源公司。

彭博社援引德勤的估计，由于2014年以来的最高油价和资本支出纪律，页岩领域有望在2022年获得总计1720亿美元的巨额自由现金流。而据德勤早前估计，截至2020年，页岩油气行业自第一次页岩气繁荣以来的15年里，净负现金流已达3000亿美元。

与之前的经济增长周期不同，美国生产商目前正将创纪录的现金流的很大一部分用于提高股东回报，包括更高的股息、特别股息和股票回购。

在本周的第一季度财报电话会议上，大多数公共页岩油气生产商的高管表示，美国生产商不打算放弃新制定的资本规则，只会适度增加产量。许多公司承认，供应链、通货膨胀和劳动力限制可能导致美国石油产量增长放缓，低于EIA和分析师的预期。此外，政府仅呼吁短期增产，令投资者忧心忡忡，因此前对石油业的负面评论削弱了石油公司的知名度，也削弱了它们计划在中期增加投资的意愿。

Diamondback Energy的首席执行官Travis Stice在本周的财报电话会议上说：“坦率地说，政府的言论肯定会给市场带来很多不确定性，无论是在监管税收、立法方面，还是对我们行业的负面言论。这给我们的所有者和股东带来了不确定性，也给我们这个行业的未来到底是什么打上了问号。”

Stice表示，Diamondback Energy将保持目前22万桶/天的石油生产水平。

他补充称：“尽管我们相信，从长期来看，生产基地的有效增长是可以实现的，但我们认为，现在不是开始支出美元的合适时机，因为这些支出无法在今后多个季度实现增产。”

另一家能源公司戴文能源第一季度实现了13亿美元的自由现金流，是有史以来最高的季度自由现金流。

首席财务官Jeff Ritenour表示：“随着自由现金流的增加，我们的首要任务是加快向股东返还资本。”

大陆资源公司首席财务官John Hart在宣布连续第五次增加季度派息时表示，大陆资源在一季度实现了创纪录的每股收益，同时还产生了额外的自由现金流。

切萨皮克在2020年经历了破产，第一季度调整后的自由现金流为5.32亿美元，是有史以来最高的季度自由现金流，并启动了10亿美元的股票和认股权回购计划。

先锋自然资源公司席执行官斯科特•谢菲尔德表示，该公司将把第一季度23亿美元自由现金流中的88%返还给股东，同时将石油产量增幅保持在5%。

谢菲尔德早在2月份就表示：“无论油价是150美元、200美元还是100美元，我们都不会改变我们的增长计划。”

谢菲尔德在本周的财报电话会议上表示，美国页岩油的增长可能低于EIA和其他分析师的预期，这将给油价带来上行压力。

援引路透社消息，谢菲尔德表示：“目前遇到的阻力是劳动力短缺、压裂车队减少和通货膨胀，我只是认为要达到预期的产量将会很困难。这甚至让我更加看好一些现有的油价数据。”

谢菲尔德预计，今年美国石油产量将增长50万～60万桶/天，而EIA和其他机构预计为80万～100万桶/天。

除了经营约束和资本约束外，行业对政府的失望情绪也在作怪。生产商称，政府将汽油价格升至八年来最高的原因归咎于石油公司，并呼吁短期内增产。民主党议员上周甚至表示，他们将提议立法，允许州和联邦机构“追查”石油公司。参议院多数党领袖将石油公司比作“秃鹫”，记录了创纪录的利润，利用新冠疫情和地缘政治冲突操纵市场。

这是一种混杂的信息。美国石油学会总裁兼首席执行官Mike Sommers本周表示：“我们不能将石油和天然气行业视为一种随政治时刻而开或关的开关。”

萨默斯补充说：“说得好像我们几乎不再需要石油或天然气了，这很容易，也很时髦。但随后，混乱发生了，每个人再一次都在盯着真相。现在，一些政策制定者突然想再次打开开关，但只是短期的。随着现实凸显，我们从华盛顿听到的大多是推卸责任和借口。”

季廷伟 摘译自 油价网

原文如下：

U.S. Shale Swings From Losses To Record Cash Flows

U.S. shale focuses on returning capital to shareholders in 2022.

Deloitte: the shale patch is on track for massive free cash flows of a combined $172 billion in 2022 alone.

Several large shale producers aren’t boosting production in 2022.

After years of plowing money into boosting production and thus depressing oil prices, the U.S. shale patch emerged from the pandemic-inflicted slump with unwavering capital discipline which, combined with $100+ oil, is paying off with record cash flows for American oil producers. The largest shale producers have left years of bleeding cash behind, focusing on returning capital to shareholders from the record cash flows they have been generating for several months now. As they report first-quarter figures these days, public companies vow continued disciplined spending and only modest production growth as “drill, baby, drill” is no longer shale’s primary goal. 

Investors, in turn, are rewarding the discipline—most of the 20 top-returning firms in the S&P 500 year to date are oil companies, including Occidental, Coterra Energy, Valero, Marathon Oil, APA, Halliburton, Devon Energy, Hess Corporation, Marathon Petroleum, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, Schlumberger, EOG Resources, and Pioneer Natural Resources. 

As a result of the highest oil prices since 2014 and capex discipline, the shale patch is on track for massive free cash flows of a combined $172 billion in 2022 alone, per Deloitte estimates cited by Bloomberg. By 2020, the shale industry had booked $300 billion in net negative cash flow in the 15 years since the first shale boom, Deloitte estimated back then.

Unlike in the previous upcycles, U.S. producers are now directing a large part of the record cash flows to boost shareholder returns with higher dividends, special dividends, and share buybacks. 

U.S. producers do not plan to abandon the newly-found capital discipline and will grow production only modestly, the top executives at most public shale producers said during the Q1 earnings calls this week. Many firms acknowledged the supply chain, inflationary, and labor constraints that could result in slower American oil production growth than the increase the EIA and analysts expect. Producers are also wary of the Administration’s calls for only a short-term ramp-up in production amid otherwise negative comments on the oil industry, which undermines the firms’ visibility and willingness to plan higher investments in the medium term.  

“To say bluntly, the Administration's comments are certainly causing a lot of uncertainty in the market, both in the terms of regulatory taxation, legislation, and negative rhetoric toward our industry. And that creates uncertainty in our owners', our shareholders' minds about what the future of this industry really is,” Diamondback Energy’s CEO Travis Stice said on the earnings call this week. 

Diamondback Energy will keep its current oil production levels of 220,000 net barrels of oil per day, Stice said.

“While we believe that efficiently growing our production base is achievable over the long term, we do not feel that today is the appropriate time to begin spending dollars that would not equate to additional barrels into multiple quarters from now,” he added. 

Another producer, Devon Energy generated $1.3 billion of free cash flow for the first quarter, its highest-ever quarterly FCF.  

“With this increasing amount of free cash flow, our top priority is to accelerate the return of capital to shareholders,” CFO Jeff Ritenour said.

Continental Resources “delivered a record quarter of adjusted earnings per share and exceptional free cash flow generation,” CFO John Hart said as the shale giant announced a fifth consecutive increase to quarterly dividend.

Chesapeake Energy, which went through a bankruptcy during 2020, reported $532 million in adjusted free cash flow for Q1, its highest quarterly FCF ever, and launched a $1-billion share and warrant repurchase program. 

Pioneer Natural Resources, for its part, will be returning 88% of its first-quarter free cash flow of $2.3 billion to shareholders, while keeping disciplined oil growth of up to 5%, CEO Scott Sheffield said. 

It was Sheffield who said as early as in February: “Whether it's $150 oil, $200 oil, or $100 oil, we're not going to change our growth plans.” 

In Pioneer’s earnings call this week, Sheffield said that U.S. shale would likely grow less than the EIA and other analysts expect, which would put upward pressure on oil prices. 

“What’s happening now in regard to labor constraints, frack fleet constraints, inflation constraints - I just think it’s going to be tough to hit some of the numbers. It even makes me even more bullish about some of the oil price numbers that are out there,” Sheffield said, as carried by Reuters. 

Sheffield sees U.S. oil production growing by 500,000 bpd-600,000 bpd this year, compared to EIA and other estimates of 800,000 bpd-1 million bpd growth. 

Added to operational constraints and capital discipline is the industry’s frustration with the Administration, which producers say has singled out oil firms to blame for the highest gasoline prices in eight years, while calling for a short-term jump in production. Democratic lawmakers even said last week they would propose legislation to allow state and federal agencies to “go after” oil companies. Senate Majority Leader compared oil firms to “vultures” booking record profits and using the COVID and tragedies for market manipulation.

“Talk about mixed messages. We can’t treat the oil and natural gas industry as a kind of light switch that is turned on or off to suit the political moment,” American Petroleum Institute (API) President and CEO Mike Sommers said this week. 

“It can be easy and fashionable to speak as if we hardly even need oil or natural gas anymore. But then disruptions occur, and once again everybody is staring down the truth. Now, suddenly, some policymakers want to flip the switch “on” again, but only for a short time. And as practical realities intrude, mostly what we hear from Washington is blame-shifting and excuses,” Sommers added.