油田服务行业将进入持续上升周期

据油价网5月5日报道，在经历了疫情期间的一波破产后，随着世界各国试图提高石油产量，油田服务行业正在大幅反弹。

油服公司的高管们正在为一个持续多年的上升周期做准备，对其钻井服务的需求已经超过了供应，这使他们能够提高定价和利润。

该行业目前面临的主要障碍是劳动力短缺，在2020年的经济衰退期间，该行业流失了大量工人。

油田服务供应商相信，随着美国页岩气恢复增长，未来几年，长期的上升周期将使他们非常忙碌。在服务提供商上月公布第一季度业绩时，他们的高管指出，目前北美和国际油气市场的紧张状况，为该行业未来几年创造了“极好的”条件。

由于能源安全问题和供应紧张(早在地缘政治冲突之前就已存在)，勘探和生产公司正寻求开采更多的石油和天然气，定价权又回到了油田服务供应商的手中。此外，正如世界最大的油服公司斯伦贝谢首席执行官Olivier Le Peuch在第一季度财报电话会议上所言，全球增产能力出现的紧张局面“对油服公司的定价权极为有利”。

高管们指出，非常紧张的劳动力市场是限制油气行业承担更多钻井工作能力的关键因素。劳动力短缺、供应链瓶颈和成本上涨也是制约美国页岩气产量增长的关键因素。

美国钻探活动复苏

不过，对于油田服务公司来说，油气市场和产能的紧张正在推高其服务的定价，最终为该行业带来更高的营业收入和利润率。

100美元的油价和紧张的全球市场激励着美国页岩气市场的活动，尽管许多上市公司继续保持资本纪律，这与怀疑论者早在去年就认为他们会把谨慎原则抛诸脑后的观点相左。

根据贝克休斯的最新数据，上周美国钻机数量增加到698台，比2021年同期增加了258台，是自2020年4月以来的最高数量。自地缘政治冲突以来，钻探活动大幅增加，在过去9周内增加了48个钻井平台。

EIA预计，2022年，美国原油总产量平均将达到1200万桶/天，比2021年增加80万桶/天。到2023年，石油产量将再增加90万桶/天，平均达到近1300万桶/天，打破2019年1230万桶/天的年度平均纪录。

钻井服务市场的紧俏使得油服公司对提高定价和利润的能力感到乐观。

繁忙的未来岁月

最大水力压裂服务提供商哈里伯顿的首席执行官Jeff Miller在4月份的第一季度收益电话会议上表示：“当前的石油供应紧张和大宗商品价格水平增强了我对哈里伯顿未来几年加速增长的信心。”

他指出：“我相信，以短周期油桶数量为核心的增长对哈里伯顿来说是件好事，并为我们的表现创造了极好的条件。”

Miller补充说，哈里伯顿的水力压裂设备已经售罄，整个市场“似乎在今年下半年也会售罄”。

贝克休斯则认为，随着全球能源需求的增加，其客户的“支出将持续多年增长”，同时也指出了美国页岩气增长的制约因素。

首席执行官Lorenzo Simonelli表示：“在北美，钻井和完井活动继续稳步上升，预计今年还会进一步增加。虽然目前的石油和天然气价格通常意味着活动将出现更强劲的增长，但勘探开发资本纪律和行业劳动力和设备短缺可能会使短期增量增长更加温和。”

Simonelli补充称，贝克休斯还“开始获得良好的定价杠杆和净定价，特别是在北美，但也在一些国际市场”。

Patterson-UTI首席执行官Andy Hendricks指出:“过去六个月，石油和天然气的基本面，以及由此产生的设备和服务需求和活动的快速增长，导致美国钻井和完井市场的定价环境强劲。例如，我不记得还有哪个时期钻井平台的前沿日费率增长如此之快。”

该公司预计，其设备和服务市场将继续吃紧，价格将继续上涨。

劳动力短缺

总体而言，在经历了2020年与疫情相关的低迷以及随后美国生产商和油服公司的破产浪潮后，油田服务提供商正在复苏。

但油田服务行业也存在着阻力，限制了页岩地区的钻井活动。最大的障碍是劳动力短缺。

自由油田服务公司首席执行官Chris Wright说：“目前最大的挑战是劳动力，每个人都知道这是正确的。这是全国性的，尤其是在我们的行业中，在经历了一场大衰退后，许多人离开了我们的行业，去了一些条件更好的高薪工作。”

作业船队和服务的市场也很紧张，Wright补充道，“坦率地说，并不是所有想要我们服务的船队或想要增加作业船队的人都能得到服务”。

尽管如此，油田服务行业的前景依然光明，正如斯伦贝谢首席执行官在评论这家全球顶级服务提供商的前景时说的那样：“大宗商品价格上涨、需求驱动的活动增长和能源安全的共同作用，正导致能源服务行业成为近年来最强劲的前景之一，强化了市场基本面，为一个更强劲、更持久的多年周期奠定基础，而不存在全球经济衰退。”

季廷伟 摘译自 油价网

原文如下：

Oilfield Services Are Set For Years Of Profits

After suffering through a wave of bankruptcies during the covid pandemic, the oilfield services sector is bouncing back in a big way as the world attempts to boost oil production.

Executives at oilfield service companies are preparing for a multi-year upcycle, with demand for their drilling services already outpacing supply, allowing them to increase pricing and profits.

The major hurdle currently being faced in the sector is a labor shortage, with the industry losing a lot of its workers during the 2020 downturn.

Oilfield services providers are confident that a prolonged upcycle will keep them very busy in coming years as the U.S. shale patch returns to growth and international drilling activity struggles to compensate for barrels likely to be lost from Russia. As service providers reported first-quarter earnings last month, their top executives noted that the current tightness in oil and gas markets, in North America and internationally, is setting up “fantastic” conditions for the industry for years to come.

Pricing power is back in the hands of the OFS crew, as exploration and production companies are looking to pump more oil and gas amid energy security concerns and a supply tightness that was already present. Moreover, emerging tightness in the global capacity to boost supply is “extremely favorable for pricing power” of the oilfield services firms, as Olivier Le Peuch, the CEO of the world’s biggest, Schlumberger, said on the Q1 earnings call.

A very tight labor market is the key constraint to the industry’s ability to take on more drilling jobs, executives noted. Labor shortages, as well as supply chain bottlenecks and cost inflation, are also the key constraints to U.S. shale production growth.

U.S. Drilling Activity Returns

Still, for oilfield firms, tight oil and gas markets and tight capacity for production are boosting pricing for their services, finally rewarding the sector with higher operating income and margins. 

$100 oil and tight global markets are incentivizing activity in the U.S. shale patch, although many public companies continue to maintain capital discipline, defying the skeptics who expected them to throw caution to the wind as early as last year.

The U.S. rig count increased last week to 698, which was 258 rigs higher than this time in 2021 and the highest count since April 2020, according to the latest data from Baker Hughes. Drilling has picked up substantially since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, adding 48 rigs over the last nine weeks.

The EIA expects total U.S. crude oil production to average 12.0 million bpd in 2022, up by 800,000 bpd from 2021. Production is set to rise by another 900,000 bpd in 2023 to average nearly 13.0 million bpd, beating the previous annual average record of 12.3 million bpd from 2019.

The tight market for drilling services makes oilfield services firms optimistic about their ability to increase pricing and profits.

“Very Busy Years Ahead”

“Current oil supply, tightness, and commodity price levels strengthen my confidence in the accelerating multi-year upcycle and very busy years ahead for Halliburton,” Jeff Miller, CEO at the largest fracking services provider, Halliburton, said on the Q1 earnings call in April.

“I believe this pivot to short cycle barrels is great for Halliburton and sets up fantastic conditions for us to outperform,” he noted.

Halliburton’s hydraulic fracturing fleet is sold out, and the overall market “appears all but sold out for the second half of the year”, Miller added.

Baker Hughes, for its part, sees “multiple years of spending growth” from its customers as they look to meet the world’s energy needs, while it also noted the constraints to U.S. shale growth.

“In North America, drilling and completion activity continues to move solidly higher with further increases expected over the course of the year. Although current oil and gas prices would normally suggest a stronger increase in activity, the combination of E&P capital discipline and industry shortages in labor and equipment is likely to keep short-term incremental increases more moderate in nature,” CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said.

Baker Hughes is also “starting to get good pricing leverage and getting net pricing, particularly in North America, but also in some of the international markets”, Simonelli added.

Andy Hendricks, CEO at Patterson-UTI, noted that “The fundamentals for oil and gas over the last six months and the resulting rapid increase in demand and activity for equipment and services have led to a strong pricing environment in the U.S. drilling and completions markets. For example, I do not recall another period where leading-edge dayrates for drilling rigs are moving up this quickly.”

The company expects the market for its equipment and services to continue to remain tight and for pricing to continue to increase.

Labor Shortages 

Overall, oilfield services providers are making a comeback after the 2020 COVID-related slump and the wave of bankruptcies that followed among U.S. producers and OFS firms.  

But there are drags on the oilfield services sector, putting a cap on drilling activity in the shale patch. The biggest hurdle of all is the shortage of labor. 

“The single biggest challenge right now is labor and everyone knows it is right. This is countrywide, but certainly in our industry, after a big downturn that pushed a lot of people out of our industry. You know, there's high-paying jobs in more pleasant conditions,” Chris Wright, CEO at Liberty Oilfield Services, said.

The market for fleets and services is also tight, Wright added, noting that “Not everyone that wants our fleet or wants an extra fleet today, frankly, is going to get one.” 

Still, the outlook is bright for the oilfield services sector, as Schlumberger’s CEO said, commenting on the outlook of the world’s top services provider: 

“The confluence of elevated commodity prices, demand-led activity growth, and energy security are resulting in one of the strongest outlooks for the energy services industry in recent times—reinforcing the market fundamentals for a stronger and longer multiyear upcycle—absent a global economic setback.”