据油价网5月6日报道，分析师表示，未来几周，春季天气比往常更热，夏季预计将更热，以及创纪录的液化天然气出口有助于欧洲减少对进口天然气的依赖，可能会推动美国基准天然气价格在未来几周升至每百万英热单位10美元以上。
本周早些时候，亨利中心天然气价格触及逾8美元/百万英热单位的13年高点，空调需求增加导致价格上涨。
截至美国东部时间周五上午9:50，天然气价格为8.693美元/百万英热单位，当天下跌1.02%。
此外，美国储存的天然气水平远低于每年这个时候的平均水平。
根据NatGasWeather对天然气需求的估计，美国南部将非常温暖，最高温度将达到70～90华氏度，本周末到下周初西南沙漠、得克萨斯州和美国平原将达到近100华氏度。
NatGasWeather指出:“从本周末到下周，美国中西部和东部将出现更温暖的天气，最高气温将达到60至70华氏度。”
“如果产量没有显著提高，且这种高温持续存在下去，那么市场将会无法应对。”
“如果这种情况属实，我们认为未来几周现货价格很容易突破10美元，除非供应大幅增加。”
与此同时，美国能源信息署(EIA)上月表示，由于供暖需求上升和创纪录的液化天然气出口，在去年冬天存储量超过正常水平后，美国的天然气储量将在今冬末降至三年来的最低水平。
EIA最新的天然气周报告显示，截至4月29日当周，可用天然气库存总计1.567亿立方英尺，较上年同期下降20%，较本周5年(2017-2021年)平均水平下降16%。
季廷伟 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
U.S. Natural Gas Prices Could Soon Hit $10
Warmer than usual spring weather, expectations of a hotter summer, and record LNG exports to help Europe reduce dependence on imported gas could send the U.S. benchmark natural gas prices to above $10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in the coming weeks, analysts say.
Earlier this week, the front-month Henry Hub benchmark price hit a 13-year high of over $8/MMBtu, as prices rallied amid increased demand for air conditioning.
As of 9:50 a.m. EST on Friday, the natural gas price was at $8.693/MMBtu, down 1.02% on the day.
Moreover, the levels of natural gas in storage across the United States are well below average for this time of the year.
The southern U.S. will be very warm to hot with highs of 70s to 90s, including highs near 100°F across Southwest deserts, Texas, and the S. Plains this weekend into the start of next week, according to an estimate from NatGasWeather of natural gas demand.
“Warmer conditions will spread across the Midwest and eastern US late this weekend into next week with high 60s and 70s,” NatGasWeather notes.
“Without production making significant gains, the market will not be able to handle things if this kind of heat sticks around,” Bespoke Weather Services says, as carried by Natural Gas Intelligence.
“If that pans out, we feel we easily can go over $10 in prompt-month [pricing] over the next several weeks, barring massive supply gains,” Bespoke added.
At the same time, higher demand for heating and record LNG exports left U.S. natural gas in storage at the end of the winter at its lowest level in three years, after larger-than-normal storage withdrawals this past winter, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said last month.
The EIA’s latest weekly natural gas report showed that working natural gas stocks totaled 1,567 Bcf in the week to April 29, which is 20% lower than the year-ago level and 16% lower than the five-year (2017–2021) average for this week.
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