据Rigzone 5月5日报道，由于石油和天然气价格高企和需求激增，勘探和生产上市公司今年有望打破以往的利润纪录。
Rystad Energy的研究显示，总自由现金流，即公司在扣除资金流出和资产维护后的运营现金流，将激增至8340亿美元，比2021年的4930亿美元利润增长近70%。
2020年，由于疫情和随后的油价暴跌，来自公共勘探和生产企业的总自由现金流下降到大约1260亿美元，比前一年减少了一半。全球经济出现反弹，燃料需求增加，去年的总自由现金流飙升至近5000亿美元，创下上游行业有史以来的最高利润。
Rystad能源公司上游研究主管Espen Erlingsen说：“目前，公共上游运营商的财务状况处于历史最高水平。尽管如此，由于一系列完美的因素推动利润和现金流在2022年再创新高，今年的好日子将会变得更好。”
Rystad表示，对于公共上游运营商来说，这不仅仅是一个创纪录的自由现金流。运营现金今年预计也将迅速增长，首次突破1万亿美元的门槛。预计1.1万亿美元的总额比2021年7190亿美元的水平增加了56%，这是自2014年以来最高的年度总额。
运营中的现金通常用于新投资和财务成本，如债务支付和股息。2020年，来自运营的现金减少了近2000亿美元，约35%，这意味着企业用于资助新活动和向所有者发放薪酬的资金减少了。因此，2020年的投资也下降了，减少了近1000亿美元，约30%。
尽管运营现金增长强劲，但预计今年的投资不会大幅增长，从2021年的2580亿美元小幅增至2860亿美元。投资比率显示出创纪录的现金流和利润之间的差距，以及这些意外之财用于再投资的比例。
在过去的十年里，这一比率一直在波动，平均在72%左右。但是，今年的投资比率将下降到自1980年代初以来的最低值26%。
低投资率和飙升的自由现金流表明，上市勘探开发公司将有大量现金可用来偿还债务或向股东派发股息。去年大部分利润都花在了减少债务上，这使得上游运营商的财务状况非常健康。这样做的结果是，今年预期的巨额利润中，有很大一部分可能会支付给股东。
到2022年，几乎所有大型上市勘探开发企业的投资比率都将在20%～30%之间。美国西方石油公司的比例最低，约为20%，而超级巨头埃克森美孚预计将在2022年实现最大的自由现金流增长，增长约180亿美元。
赫斯公司在这些公司中是一个例外，该公司的投资率约为45%，原因是该公司计划增加在圭亚那和美国Bakken页岩地区的投资。
季廷伟 摘译自 Rigzone
原文如下：
Public E&Ps To Smash Profit Record With $834Bn In 2022
Public exploration and production companies are on track to shatter previous record profits this year as high oil and gas prices and surging demand drive financial success.
Rystad Energy research shows that total free cash flow, a company’s cash from operations after accounting for outflows and asset maintenance, will balloon to $834 billion, a 70 percent increase from the $493 billion profits in 2021.
Total FCF from public E&Ps fell to around $126 billion in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic and the ensuing oil price collapse, halving the prior year’s total. As the global economy rebounded and fuel demand increased, last year’s FCF levels surged to nearly $500 billion, the highest profits ever for the upstream industry.
“The current financial health of public upstream operators is at an all-time high. Still, the good times are set to get even better this year, thanks to a perfect storm of factors pushing profits and cash flow to another record high in 2022,” says Espen Erlingsen, Rystad Energy’s head of upstream research.
According to Rystad, it is not just a record high FCF on the table for public upstream operators. Cash from operations is also expected to rocket this year, breaking the $1 trillion threshold for the first time. The $1.1 trillion projected annual total is a 56 percent jump from 2021 levels of $719 billion, which was the highest yearly total since 2014.
Cash from operations is typically used to fund new investments and financial costs, such as debt payments and dividends. In 2020, cash from operations dropped by almost $200 billion, or around 35 percent, implying that companies had less money to finance new activity and issue payouts to their owners. As a result, investments also dropped in 2020, falling by almost $100 billion or around 30 percent.
Despite the robust growth in cash from operations, investments are not expected to grow significantly this year, inching up to $286 billion from $258 billion in 2021. The investment ratio shows the disparity between record cash flow and profits, and the portion of those windfalls that are reinvested.
This ratio has fluctuated during the past decade, averaging around 72 percent. This year, however, the projected investment ratio is expected to plunge to 26 percent, the lowest since the early 1980s.
The meager investment ratio and soaring FCF indicate that public E&P companies will have significant cash available to pay down debt or fork out dividends to shareholders. Much of last year’s profit was spent on reducing debt, which has left upstream operators in a very healthy financial position. The upshot of this is that a significant portion of the vast profits anticipated this year will likely be paid out to shareholders.
Almost all the large public E&P companies will have an investment ratio between 20 and 30 percent in 2022. US independent Occidental Petroleum has the lowest ratio of about 20 percent, while supermajor ExxonMobil is expected to see the most significant increase in FCF in 2022, growing by about $18 billion.
Compatriot independent Hess is an outlier among these companies with an investment ratio of around 45 percent, due to the company’s plans to ramp up investments in Guyana and the core US shale patch of the Bakken.
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