圭亚那有望成为全球领先的石油生产国

自2015年以来，圭亚那共获得了31个石油发现，仅在2022年就有5个新发现。

仅从目前正在开发的项目来看，圭亚那有望成为世界上最大的20个产油国之一。

圭亚那正寻求组建一家国有石油公司，以确保对该国石油行业的主导地位，巴西国家石油公司(Petrobras)是潜在合作伙伴。

据今日油价5月12日报道，南美洲最新石油生产国圭亚那，正在继续努力为其石油繁荣奠定基础。2015年，全球能源巨头埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)在圭亚那近海660万英亩的Stabroek区块首次发现石油，埃克森美孚作为运营商持有45%的开采权益，其合作伙伴Hess持有25%的权益。

随后，埃克森牵头的财团发现了一系列高质石油，最新发现发生在2022年4月。埃克森美孚在Stabroek区块东南部的Barreleye-1、Patwa-1和Lukanani-1井发现了石油。这是自2022年初以来的第五个发现，自埃克森美孚开始在该区块钻井以来，总共获得了31个石油发现。

根据最新发现，埃克森美孚将其对Stabroek区块可采石油资源估计上调至近110亿桶。这使得圭亚那石油储量超过了邻国哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔和阿根廷，要知道，这些国家都是南美五大石油生产国。

自2015年埃克森美孚首次发现石油以来，圭亚那在很短的时间内就成为拉丁美洲和加勒比地区第七大石油生产国。自Liza Unity FPSO于2022年2月上线以来，作为Liza第二阶段开发的一部分，圭亚那石油日产量已超过13万桶。值得一提的是，埃克森美孚正在Stabroek区块开发价值90亿美元的Payara项目，该项目将于2024年开始运营，日产量将达到22万桶。这家能源巨头最近还承诺投资100亿美元开发位于Stabroek海上区块的Yellowtail项目，该项目在2025年投产后最终日产量将达到25万桶。

仅由埃克森牵头的财团在Stabroek区块开发的项目，就将使圭亚那成为全球前20大产油国之一。埃克森美孚估计，到2027年，圭亚那每天将从Stabroek开采120万桶原油，按2021年的石油产量计算，圭亚那将排名全球第17位。

这一最新进展凸显了Stabroek区块对埃克森美孚日益增长的重要性，预计该区块将成为该公司原油生产的一个主要来源。低运营成本进一步增强了该区块吸引力。Liza一期开发期间的收支平衡点为每桶35美元（布伦特原油价格），而Liza二期一旦产能达到饱和，预计将在每桶25美元的水平上实现盈亏平衡。

即将投产的Payara和Yellowtail项目预计将在每桶32美元和29美元时实现收支平衡。这些行业内较低的盈亏平衡价格，突显了Stabroek区块对埃克森牵头财团的可观盈利能力，特别是在考虑开采石油的低碳强度时。

越来越多的人猜测，圭亚那原油产量将在2027年之前达到埃克森美孚120万桶/天的目标，原因是新发现石油数量稳定，可开发石油资源不断增加，投资增加，以及重要行业基础设施的加快建设。圭亚那正在考虑一系列措施，旨在通过增加勘探、油田开发和关键基础设施投资来加速石油繁荣。该国正在考虑一项关键措施，即成立一家国有石油公司，如果该公司被采纳，圭亚那将效仿拉丁美洲邻国石油生产国所采用的模式。此举将阻止埃克森牵头的财团竞标进一步的勘探许可证，并增强政府对该行业的主导权。到目前为止，该行业一直掌握在这家全球石油巨头手中。

这将解决人们对埃克森美孚与圭亚那交易的部分担忧。分析人士称该交易具有剥削性，会对圭亚那不利。行业分析人士认为，该国从埃克森美孚获得的回报低于平均水平，而智库Global Witness认为，圭亚那通过这笔交易损失了550亿美元。圭亚那正在寻找一个战略合作伙伴来组建企业，并表示可以在中东找到合作伙伴。虽然圭亚那在中东有相当多的行业经验，尤其是国有石油行业和政府主导的石油公司，但它可以找到一个离家更近的合作伙伴。

圭亚那与邻国巴西举行会谈，巴西国家石油公司正在推动世界上最大的海上石油繁荣之一。以前曾就在圭亚那建设关键石油工业基础设施，特别是圭亚那大西洋海岸的一个深水港与巴西利亚进行过协商，该港口将为海上石油工业提供关键支持。这一设施不仅将为圭亚那服务，而且还将为缺乏关键运输基础设施的巴西北部服务。在圭亚那和巴西最近的讨论中，确定了四个发展领域，包括深水港、公路铁路线、能源走廊，以及光纤通信技术的引进。随着基础设施的开发和投入使用，它将为能源公司提供更多进入圭亚那近海领域的途径，加速这个国家的石油繁荣。这种合作可能会让“与巴西国家石油公司合作”成为一种更合理的选择，尤其是在考虑到该国有石油公司可观的深水钻井专业知识的情况下。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Guyana Is On Track To Become A Leading Global Oil Producer

Since 2015, there have been 31 oil discoveries in Guyana, with five new discoveries in 2022 alone.

based purely on the projects that are currently being developed, Guyana is on course to become one of the 20 largest oil-producing countries in the world.

The government of Guyana is now looking to form a national oil company to ensure control over its oil industry, with Brazil’s Petrobras as a potential partner.

South America’s latest oil-producing nation, the former British colony of Guyana, is continuing to lay the groundwork for its oil boom. In 2015, global energy supermajor ExxonMobil, which is the operator holding a 45% working interest, and partners Hess with 30% and CNOOC holding 25%, made their first discovery in offshore Guyana in the 6.6-million-acre Stabroek Block. The Exxon-led consortium then went on to make a swath of high-quality oil discoveries with the latest occurring in April 2022. Exxon found oil with the Barreleye-1, Patwa-1, and Lukanani-1 wells which were drilled in the southeast of the Stabroek Block. That is five oil discoveries since the start of 2022 and a total of 31 finds since Exxon started drilling in the Block. The latest discoveries saw Exxon upgrade its estimate for the Stabroek Block’s recoverable oil resources to nearly 11 billion barrels. That endows Guyana with more oil reserves than nearby Colombia, Ecuador, and Argentina, all of which rank among the top-5 petroleum-producing nations in South America. In the short period since Exxon’s first 2015 discovery, Guyana has become the seventh-largest oil producer in Latin America and the Caribbean. The deeply impoverished former British colony has been pumping over 130,000 barrels per day since the Liza Unity floating, production, storage, and offloading vessel (FPSO) came online in February 2022 as part of the Liza Phase 2 development. Exxon is developing the $9 billion Payara project in the Stabroek Block, which on commencing operations in 2024 will pump up to 220,000 barrels per day. The energy supermajor also recently committed to the $10 billion Yellowtail development, also in the offshore Stabroek Block, which will eventually produce 250,000 barrels daily after coming online in 2025. The projects being developed by the Exxon-led consortium in the Stabroek Block alone will catapult Guyana to become a leading top-20 oil-producing nation globally. Exxon estimates that it will be pumping 1.2 million barrels of crude oil daily from Stabroek by 2027, which based on 2021 oil production will see Guyana ranked 17th globally.

The latest developments underscore the growing importance of the Stabroek Block for Exxon with it expected to become a major source of crude oil production for the company. The block’s attractiveness is further enhanced by low operating costs. Liza Phase 1 has a breakeven price of $35 per barrel Brent while Liza Phase 2 once it reaches full production capacity is expected to break even at $25 per barrel. The Payara and Yellowtail projects on commencing operations are expected to break even at $32 and $29 per barrel Brent respectively. Those industry-low breakeven prices underscore the considerable profitability of the Stabroek Block for the Exxon-led consortium, particularly when the low-carbon intensity of the oil being extracted is considered.

There is growing speculation that Guyana’s crude oil output will reach the 1.2 million barrels per day targeted by Exxon before 2027 because of the steady volume of new oil discoveries, rising exploitable oil resources, increased investment, and the building-out of vital industry infrastructure. The national government in Georgetown is considering a range of measures aimed at accelerating Guyana’s oil boom by bolstering investment in exploration, oilfield development, and critical infrastructure. A key measure being considered by Georgetown is the formation of a state-run oil company, which if adopted will see Guyana follow the model used by neighboring oil producers in Latin America. Such a move would block the Exxon-led consortium from bidding on further exploration licenses and boost the government’s control over the industry, which until now has been in the hands of the global oil supermajor.

That would address some of the concerns raised regarding the deal made by Exxon with Georgetown, which analysts labeled as exploitive and unfavorable for the impoverished South American nation. Industry analysts believe that Georgetown is receiving a below-average return from Exxon, while think tank Global Witness believes that Guyana’s government has forfeited $55 billion through the deal. Guyana’s government is seeking a strategic partner to form such an enterprise with it flagging that such a partner could be found in the Middle East. While there is considerable industry experience in the Middle East, notably with nationalized oil industries and government-controlled petroleum companies, Georgetown could find a partner far closer to home.

Guyana’s government has held discussions with neighboring Brazil where national oil company Petrobras is driving one of the world’s largest offshore oil booms. There have been previous consultations with Brasilia regarding the construction of crucial oil industry infrastructure in Guyana, notably a deep-water port on Guyana’s Atlantic coast which will provide crucial support to the offshore oil industry. Such a facility would service not only Guyana but also northern Brazil where there is a shortage of critical transport infrastructure. In recent discussions between Georgetown and Brasilia, four areas of development were identified; the deep-water port, a road-rail link, an energy corridor, and the introduction of fiber optics communications technology. As that infrastructure is developed and commissioned it will provide greater access to offshore Guyana for energy companies causing the former colony’s oil boom to accelerate. Such cooperation could make partnering with Petrobras a more logical choice than seeking a deal with a Middle Eastern entity, especially when the national oil company’s considerable deep-water drilling expertise are considered.