据油价网5月10日报道，根据周二发布的最新短期能源展望，美国能源情报署预计，今年第二季度布伦特原油平均价格为每桶107美元。
4月份布伦特原油均价为每桶105美元。
根据短期能源展望的数据，EIA预计今年下半年油价将降至每桶103美元，明年将降至每桶97美元——是2020年平均价格的两倍多。
不过，EIA警告称，它是在5月5日做出这些预测的，当时欧盟尚未对进口石油实施进口禁令。EIA表示，这一决策将进一步推高油价。
对于WTI原油，EIA估计，2022年全年均价将为98.20美元，明年将跌至92.4美元。
到2022年，美国原油产量平均将达到1190万桶/天，仅比去年增加70万桶/天。然而，EIA预计，明年的增产幅度将更大，2023年平均为1280万桶/天，创历史新高。
EIA在当天的预测中表示：“地缘政治冲突进一步升级等各种因素，使5月份的短期能源展望的不确定性上升。”
2022年4月全球石油和液体燃料消费量为每天9740万桶，比去年4月增加210万桶。EIA预计，2022年全年的平均消费量预计为9960万桶/天，比4月份短期能源展望的预估量减少20万桶/天。
EIA预测，最近创下新高的美国汽油价格，将从2021年的每加仑3.02美元和2020年的每加仑2.18美元，上升到今年的3.82美元和明年的3.51美元。
季廷伟 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
EIA Sees Brent Crude At $107 In Q2 2022
The Energy Information Administration sees Brent crude oil prices averaging $107 per barrel in the second quarter this year, according to the latest Short Term Energy Outlook published on Tuesday.
Brent crude prices averaged $105 per barrel in April.
The EIA sees prices dipping in the second half of the year to $103 per barrel, according to the STEO, before falling to an average of $97 per barrel next year—more than double the average price for 2020.
However, the EIA cautioned that it made these projections on May 5, prior to any EU ban on oil imports, which, the EIA says, would raise prices further.
For WTI crude, the EIA estimates that the full-year 2022 price will average $98.20, slipping to $9.24 next year.
U.S. crude oil production will average 11.9 million bpd in 2022, up just 700,000 from the average last year. Next year, however, the EIA sees the increase as much more substantial, averaging 12.8 million bpd in 2023—achieving a new record.
The EIA prefaced its projections by saying, “The May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty resulting from a variety of factors.”
The EIA pegged April 2022 global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels at 97.4 million barrels per day—an increase of 2.1 million bpd from last April. Full-year 202 consumption is expected to average 99.6 million bpd—a 200,000 bpd decrease from its April STEO.
The EIA estimates that gasoline prices, which have recently hit new highs in the United States, will average $3.82 this year and $3.51 per gallon next year—up from $3.02 per gallon in 2021 and $2.18 per gallon in 2020.
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