创历史新高的柴油价格将对美国经济产生重要影响

• 由于美国国内库存非常紧张和全球供应短缺，柴油价格创下历史新高。  

• 由于需求激增，以及军事冲突导致供应下降，这两种因素对柴油市场造成沉重打击。  

• 不仅美国柴油价格处于历史高位，而且柴油与汽油价格的差距也达到历史最高水平。

据美国油价网5月10日报道，美国40年来的最高通货膨胀率将持续，甚至在未来几个月还会上升，由于美国国内库存非常紧张和全球供应短缺，美国的柴油价格正处于创纪录高位。从货物运输到制造业和农业，柴油被用于工业活动和供应链的每个部分；柴油推动了美国经济的发展。近几个月来，柴油价格飙升至纪录高位，进一步加大美国通货膨胀数据的上行压力。考虑到疫情结束后工业、休闲、旅游等领域的需求，以及柴油等燃料的供应减少，美国国内外异常紧张的柴油市场不太可能在短期内缓解。

“通货膨胀率太高了”

根据美国汽车协会（AAA）日前发布的统计数据，美国全国平均柴油价格周一（5月9日）达到每加仑5.54美元的纪录高位，高于去年同期的3.111美元，比平均汽油价格每加仑高出逾1.20美元。

著名的汽油价格追踪应用软件GasBuddy石油分析主管帕特里克·德·哈恩在每周周一评论说：“不仅柴油价格处于历史高位，而且柴油与汽油之间的价差也达到历史最高水平，超过2008年的98美分，目前每加仑柴油溢价1.2美元。 尽管汽车司机加满汽油的价格略有上升，但柴油价格的激增将会是一个双重重击，这是因为柴油价格很快就会传递到零售渠道，从而进一步推高大宗商品的成本。”

不久前，哈恩曾评论说：“就目前而言，由于航空燃油价格加速上涨，杂货店、五金店或者你的下一班航班肯定会感受到柴油价格的上涨，导致通货膨胀率持续上升，可能波及整个经济。”

美联储试图遏制猖獗的通货膨胀率，美联储日前宣布20多年来最大的一次加息，将基准利率提高0.5个百分点。

美联储主席鲍威尔在美联储做出货币政策决定后的新闻发布会上表示：“美国时下的通货膨胀率太高了，我们理解它造成的困难，我们正在迅速采取行动，让通货膨胀率回落。”

“如果我们要让就业市场状况持续强劲，让所有人都受益，就必须降低通货膨胀率。”鲍威尔补充道。

在近日发布的《金融稳定报告》中，美联储指出，“甚至在军事冲突爆发之前，通货膨胀率就已经比预期的更高、更持久，通货膨胀率前景的不确定性给金融状况和经济活动带来了风险。”

“通货膨胀率和利率的进一步负面意外，特别是如果伴随着经济活动的下降，可能会对金融系统产生负面影响。”美联储警告称，这种组合可能会削弱家庭和企业的财务状况，“导致违约、破产和其他形式的财务困境的增加。”

柴油价格飙升：“可能冲出太阳系”

由于柴油价格影响到经济的方方面面，货币政策制定者应对通货膨胀率变得更加艰难，因为大幅加息可能导致经济活动和家庭支出恶化，最终导致衰退。  

但是，美国的柴油价格创下历史最高纪录，短期内无法治愈。需求在上升，而美国东海岸的柴油库存量处于多年低点，创历史新低。

EIA在最新的每周库存报告中说，4月份的最后一周，美国馏分油库存减少230万桶，比五年同期平均水平低22%左右。包括柴油在内的馏分油库存为1.05亿桶，处于2008年以来的最低水平。在美国东海岸，由于该地区的炼油厂产能在过去10年里减少一半，目前仅为81.8万桶/天，目前处于历史最低水平。

由于全球馏分油市场在爆发军事冲突以后支持那些产品的高炼油利润率，所以，今年美国炼油商可以寻求提高柴油和航空燃料加工量，而不是专注于在夏季驾驶季节提高汽油产量。  

瓦莱罗能源公司执行副总裁兼首席商务官盖理· 西蒙斯在4月底召开的公司第一季度财报电话会议上表示，美国燃料库存“非常、非常紧张，尤其是柴油库存更加紧张”。

西蒙斯补充称，瓦莱罗能源公司今年3月份炼油利润率创历史新高，其中柴油业务领涨。

如果欧盟就禁止进口原油和石油产品达成某种妥协，全球柴油危机预计将进一步恶化。这将使柴油价格居高不下，影响到美国和其他国家的所有经济活动，最终影响到消费者。  

油价信息服务公司（OPIS）全球能源研究主管汤姆·克洛扎告诉美国全国广播公司财经频道（CNBC）记者皮帕·斯蒂文斯，目前纽约港的柴油价格在每加仑5美元左右，每桶远高于200美元。  

“这些不只是打破旧纪录的数字。它们离开了墙壁，走出了大楼，也许走出了太阳系。”克洛扎告诉CNBC记者。 

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

Record High Diesel Prices Will Ripple Across The Economy

·     Diesel prices have hit record highs due to very tight domestic inventories and a global supply shortage.

·     A combination of spiking demand and falling supply  has hit diesel markets hard.

·     Not only are diesel prices at record highs, but they are also at their largest differential to gasoline in history.

The highest inflation in the U.S. in four decades is set to persist and even increase in the coming months as the price of diesel is at record highs amid very tight domestic inventories and a global shortage of supply.  Diesel is used in every part of the industrial activity and supply chain, from goods transportation to manufacturing and agriculture; it fuels America’s economy. Diesel prices have soared to record highs in recent months, adding further upward pressure on U.S. inflation figures. The exceptionally tight diesel market at home and abroad is unlikely to ease any time soon, considering the post-COVID demand from industry and for leisure and travel, as well as the reduced supply of diesel, other fuels.

“Inflation is much too high”

The national average U.S. diesel prices were at a record $5.540 per gallon on Monday, per AAA data, more than $1.20 a gallon over the average gasoline price, and up from $3.111 at this time of the year in 2021.

“Not only are diesel prices at a record high, they are at their largest differential to gasoline on record, surpassing the 98-cent difference in 2008 and currently standing at a $1.20 per gallon premium. While motorists filling with gasoline have seen a slight rise in prices, diesel’s surge will be a double whammy as diesel prices will soon be passed along to retail channels, further pushing up the cost of goods,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a weekly commentary on Monday.

A week earlier, De Haan commented that “For now, the rising cost of diesel will surely be felt in the grocery store, hardware store or on your next flight as jet fuel prices accelerate, leading to a continued rise in inflation likely to ripple across the economy.”

The Fed is seeking to curb the rampant inflation, announcing last week the single largest interest rate hike in more than two decades, when it raised the key rate by 0.50 percentage point.  

“Inflation is much too high and we understand the hardship it is causing, and we’re moving expeditiously to bring it back down,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at the press conference following the monetary policy decision.

“It is essential that we bring inflation down if we are to have a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all,” Powell added.

In the Financial Stability Report published this week, the Fed noted that “inflation has been higher and more persistent than expected, even before the war, and uncertainty over the inflation outlook poses risks to financial conditions and economic activity.”

“Further adverse surprises in inflation and interest rates, particularly if accompanied by a decline in economic activity, could negatively affect the financial system,” the Fed warned, adding that this combination could weaken the finances of both households and businesses, “leading to an increase in delinquencies, bankruptcies, and other forms of financial distress.”

Diesel Price Surge “Maybe Out of the Solar System”  

As diesel prices impact every part of the economy, the fight against inflation becomes more complicated for monetary policymakers, as steeper interest rate hikes could lead to the deterioration of economic activity and household spending and, ultimately, recession.

However, there is no short-term cure to the record diesel prices in the United States. Demand is going up, while inventories are at multi-year lows and at a record low on the U.S. East Coast.

Distillate fuel inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels in the last week of April and are about 22% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said in its latest weekly inventory report. At 105 million barrels, distillate inventories—which include diesel—are at their lowest since 2008. On the East Coast, there are at their lowest ever, as the refinery capacity in the region has halved over the past decade to just 818,000 barrels per day now.

So, instead of focusing on boosting the production of gasoline in the summer driving season, this year U.S. refiners could be looking to raise diesel and jet fuel runs, as the global market of distillates is very tight following the war  and supports high refinery margins for those products. 

U.S. inventories are “very, very tight, especially tight for diesel,” Gary Simmons, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer at Valero Energy,said on the Q1 earnings call at the end of April.

Valero Energy saw its highest-ever March refining margins this year, led by diesel, Simmons added.

The global diesel crunch is expected to worsen if the EU reaches some kind of a compromise on banning  crude and oil product imports. This will keep diesel prices elevated, impacting every economic activity in the U.S. and elsewhere, and ultimately hitting consumers. 

Currently, diesel at New York harbor is trading at around $5 per gallon, which is well above $200 per barrel, Tom Kloza, head of global energy research at OPIS, toldCNBC’s Pippa Stevens.

“These are numbers that are not just off the charts. They’re off the walls, out of the building, and maybe out of the solar system,” Kloza told CNBC.