预计未来几年液化天然气价格将居高不下

欧洲为减少对大国天然气依赖，不得不进口大量的液化天然气

虽然液化天然气价格可能不会回到之前的高位，但分析师预计，未来几年价格还会上涨

据油价网5月28日消息，自地缘政治冲突颠覆了全球能源市场以来，液化天然气行业一直在努力应对许多不确定性。事实上，唯一真正确定的是，现货液化天然气价格将在未来几年保持高位，即使它们不会再次触及最近的历史新高。欧洲和亚洲的主要需求中心在供暖季节结束和明年冬季（北半球的需求高峰期）到来之前都面临着一系列不确定性。

不确定性包括欧洲将在明年11月之前将设法填满多少库存，以及亚洲在今年迄今需求低迷后，将有多少现货市场购买以备冬。

液化天然气的供需也将取决于在停止向波兰、保加利亚和芬兰的供应后是否会切断对更多欧盟客户的供应，以及明年冬天欧洲和亚洲的寒冷程度。

壳牌能源执行副总裁Steve Hill本周在韩国举行的世界天然气大会上表示：“我们对下一步会发生什么存在巨大的不确定性。”

路透社报道，Hill说：“如果我们将2021年进入欧洲的大国管道天然气量转换为液化天然气当量，再加上2021年输送到欧洲的液化天然气量，这相当于2亿吨液化天然气当量。这是当前（全球）液化天然气行业规模的一半。”

很明显，欧洲将无法很快用液化天然气取代所有的大国管道天然气。世界没有那么多供应能力，要到本世纪中期的某个时候才会有。预计2026年及之后，随着美国正在开发的项目和卡塔尔扩大产能的投产，预计将有更多的液化天然气进入市场。

自去年秋季能源危机以来，欧洲已取代亚洲成为液化天然气需求的增长动力，不再是液化天然气货物的“最后市场”。地缘冲突进一步促使欧洲开始减少对大国管道天然气的严重依赖，没有管道天然气，欧洲大陆目前面临着严重的工业放缓风险，并急于确保明年冬天的供暖。

根据欧洲天然气基础设施的数据，截至5月26日，欧盟的天然气存储容量已超过44.45%，而英国的天然气储存容量已超过91% 。

欧洲的储存水平在一年中的这个时候已恢复到正常水平，但今年全球能源市场没有任何正常情况，因此预计欧洲的液化天然气需求将在下一个冬季开始之前保持高位。此外，欧盟成员国现在必须在11月1日之前达到至少80%的储气水平，以防止潜在的供应中断。从2023 年开始，到11月1日，目标将提高到90%的储气量。

欧盟能源专员Kadri Simson上周表示：“在明年冬天之前填充欧盟的天然气储存对于确保我们的供应安全至关重要。”

尽管与去年相比，欧洲将继续竞相购买更多数量的液化天然气，但亚洲的需求前景却不太确定。伍德麦肯兹估计，2022年第一季度亚洲液化天然气进口量同比下降10%，日本和印度的进口量分别下降14%和25%。WoodMac表示，与2021年相比，现在预计今年亚洲整体液化天然气需求将持平。

高昂的液化天然气现货价格让亚洲买家望而却步，而市场波动和不确定性以及对能源安全的担忧促使越来越多的买家寻求长期合同。 

伍德麦肯兹全球天然气供应首席分析师Kateryna Filippenko上周表示，液化天然气供应竞赛可能会引发第二波美国液化天然气项目，但新的供应需要时间。

但大部分新的液化天然气供应，包括前几年采用FIDs的项目，可能要到2026年之后才会出现。

Filippenko指出，直到2026年左右，“欧洲将不得不与亚洲竞争边缘液化天然气市场，以满足需求——就像现在一样”。

“在2026年后新的供应浪潮到来之前，欧洲和亚洲对有限液化天然气的竞争将非常激烈。在那之前，价格将不可避免地保持高位。” 

祝精燕 摘译自 油价网

原文如下：

Expect High LNG Prices For Years To Come

The war has upended global energy markets, including the LNG industry.

Europe’s push to reduce its dependence on the world’s largest oil producer's  gas has left it importing massive amounts of LNG.

While LNG prices may not return to previous highs, analysts expect elevated prices for years to come.

Since the war upended global energy markets, the LNG industry has been grappling with many uncertainties. In fact, the only real certainty is that spot LNG prices will remain elevated for years to come, even if they don't hit the most recent record highs again.  Key demand centers in Europe and Asia are facing their own set of uncertainties at the end of the heating season and ahead of next winter, the peak demand period in the northern hemisphere.

Uncertainties range from how much Europe will have managed to fill its storage capacity by next November, to how much Asia will buy on the spot market to stock for the winter after lackluster demand so far this year.

LNG supply and demand will also depend on whether the world’s largest oil producer will cut off supply to more EU customers after halting deliveries to Poland, Bulgaria, and Finland, and on how cold next winter will be in Europe and Asia.

"We have massive uncertainty over what will happen next," Steve Hill, Executive Vice President at Shell Energy, said at this week's World Gas Conference in South Korea.

"If we convert the Russian pipeline gas volume into Europe in 2021 into an LNG equivalent, and add on the LNG volumes delivered into Europe in 2021, that's 200 million tonnes of LNG equivalent. That's half the size of the current (global) LNG industry," Hill said, as carried by Reuters.

It's clear that Europe will not be able to replace all the world’s largest oil producer's pipeline gas with LNG soon. The world just doesn't have that much supply capacity and will not have it until some point in the middle of this decade. Larger volumes of LNG are expected to hit the market in 2026 and afterward, when the U.S. projects under development and Qatar's expanded capacity come on stream.

Since the energy crisis of last autumn, Europe has displaced Asia as the growth driver of LNG demand and is no longer "the market of last resort" for LNG cargoes. The war has further spurred Europe to start reducing its heavy reliance on the world’s largest oil producer's piped gas, without which the continent currently risks a severe industrial slowdown and a rush to secure heating for next winter.

As of May 26, gas storage capacity in the EU was 44.45% full, while in the UK, this capacity is over 91% full, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Storage levels in Europe are back to normal levels for this time of the year, but there is nothing normal in the global energy market this year, so LNG demand in Europe is expected to remain high through the start of the next winter season. Moreover, the EU member states are now required to reach a minimum 80% gas storage level by November 1 to protect against potential interruptions to supply. From 2023, the target will be raised to 90% full gas storage by November 1.

"Filling the EU's gas storage before the next winter is crucial for ensuring our security of supply," European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson said last week.

While Europe will continue to race to buy much higher volumes of LNG compared to last year, the demand outlook in Asia is less certain. Asian LNG imports fell 10% year-on-year in Q1 2022, with Japanese, and Indian imports down 14%, and 25%, respectively, Wood Mackenzie has estimated. Overall Asian LNG demand is now expected to be flat this year compared to 2021, WoodMac says.

High spot LNG prices have priced out Asian buyers, while market volatility and uncertainties, and concerns about energy security have prompted a growing number of buyers to seek long-term contracts. 

The race for LNG supply could give rise to the second wave of U.S. LNG projects, but new supply will take time to develop, Kateryna Filippenko, Principal Analyst, Global Gas Supply, at Wood Mackenzie, said last week.

But much of this new LNG supply, including from projects that have taken FIDs in previous years, is likely to come only after 2026.

Until around 2026, "Europe will have to compete with Asia for the marginal LNG molecule to satisfy demand – just as it is right now," Filippenko noted.

"Competition between Europe and Asia for limited LNG will be intense until a new supply wave arrives after 2026. Prices will inevitably remain elevated until then."