研究显示：石化行业2050年前净零排放需要7590亿美元

据阿拉伯贸易网2022年5月24日纽约报道，根据来自研究公司彭博新能源财经(BloombergNEF)的一份最新报告，到2050年前，通过额外投资7590亿美元，石化产品可以几乎没有任何碳排放。  

电气化和碳捕获和储存(CCS)技术可能在减少高价值化学品(HVC)生产的碳排放方面发挥核心作用。HVC是制造塑料和许多制成品的关键原料。HVC的碳排放量占全球的2%，相当于航空业的碳排放量，是铝业碳排放量的两倍。  

各国政府和企业正致力于推动石化行业在2050年前减排。尽管石化行业面临的脱碳路径比其他任何行业都要复杂，但与钢铁和水泥等其他重碳排放行业相比，石化产品参与者的净零目标涵盖了更多的全球制造产能。  

彭博新能源财经发布的题为《石化产品脱碳：净零排放途径》的报告概述了低排放化学品的途径，并描述了降低CCS和电气化成本如何在总产量显著增长的情况下将排放降低到净零碳排放。  

彭博新能源财经估计，与常规产能增长相比，新的清洁产能和为降低排放而进行的改造将使石化行业额外花费7590亿美元。据彭博新能源财经估计，到2050年前，全球能源部门脱碳需要172万亿美元，而这大约是其中的1%。

资本支出密集，但至关重要

化学品去碳将是资本支出密集，但它对2030年以后的所有新增产能和改造达到净零，以避免资产在其长期使用期内搁浅的风险来说至关重要。  

到2050年前，CCS将成为最便宜的零排放石化产品的选择，并减少40%的HVC生产的碳排放。 另外35%将依赖新的电气化裂解装置设计，这可以提供唯一的净零生产路线，与传统的蒸汽裂解装置相比具有成本竞争力。报告称，生物塑料是目前唯一可在市场上获得的净零排放途径，但由于成本高和缺乏可持续的生物质，到2050年前，生物塑料将仅占市场的2.5%。  

CCUS很可能扮演的重要角色，对于已经拥有该技术专长并可能加速成本下降的综合性石油巨头来说，是一个独特的机会。石油公司一直在探索扩大石化领域的足迹，以对冲燃料需求下降的风险。 报告称，如果这些石油巨头将其CCUS投资的重点转向下游资产，它们可能通过扩大净零石化生产，压低整个行业的成本，从而引领转型。

需要炼油企业的帮助

没有炼油企业的帮助，石化产品供应链将无法脱碳。目前，世界上大部分的芳香烃供应都是从炼油企业作为燃料生产的副产品采购的，芳香烃是诸如PET瓶等产品的关键化学成分。在净零排放的情况下，由于运输燃料需求达到峰值，炼油企业将在2030年开始停产，然后乘用车电气化将导致燃料需求开始下降。这就留下了芳香烃供应的缺口，目前只能通过使用绿色甲醇原料来解决——这是一条昂贵的路线，将使许多化学品的价格提高两倍。这一过程将占化学品生产的20%，目前这一比例为0%，除非炼油商大幅转向专注于化学品生产，同时对业务进行脱碳。

彭博新能源财经的研究显示，到2050年，尽管成本大幅下降，但低碳路线的成本仍将高于目前的生产成本。这可能导致持续的绿色溢价，并创造强有力的激励，以净零要求取代或减少塑料和化学品在市场上的使用。化学品是许多工业供应链的关键投入物，因此对它们进行脱碳可能会增加多个行业的成本。除非成本大幅加速下降，否则纳税人很可能会通过提高价格或补贴的方式，为长期的减排买单。

彭博新能源财经可持续材料分析师、该报告的主要作者伊尔汗·萨沃特表示：“如果石化行业有些许希望实现净零排放，那么就必须在2030年前开始大规模资本支出。”“在短期内，部署这些技术将是昂贵的，但它可以使石化行业走上低成本的脱碳道路。鉴于化工企业的资产寿命较长，它们必须迅速行动，尽快为净零项目提供资金，否则就有可能被锁定在关键技术之外。今天的投资将是管理长期成本和支付2035年后股息的关键。”

如果绿色塑料在使用寿命结束时燃烧，它们就不再是净零排放。“虽然许多净零目标不包括范围3的排放，但客户和投资者将把焚烧的塑料与石油和化学品公司联系起来，就像他们对待塑料垃圾那样。整个供应链都是塑料生产商的问题，”彭博新能源财经可持续材料主管朱莉娅•阿特伍德如是表示，“低碳石化行业将需要循环经济行动。 生产商已经在与炼油企业和废物管理机构合作，以获取循环和低碳原料。”

尽管目前大多数净零产能是由客户对可持续塑料的需求推动的，但政策制定者也可以启动石化行业的脱碳。碳定价常常被吹捧为一种脱碳杠杆，但要激励变革，需要非常高的价格。在250美元/吨二氧化碳的情况下，80%的净零排放HVC产能将具有竞争力。目前欧洲的二氧化碳排放价格约为90美元/吨，而工业排放国看到的价格实际上要低得多，这要归功于慷慨的免费配额。报告说，为了鼓励更快的行动，政府可以为早期采用者提供长期补贴，以证明更高的生产成本是合理的，并投资于基础设施，如二氧化碳运输和储存网络以及提供24/7（每周7天每天24小时）清洁电力的电网。  

李峻 编译自 阿拉伯贸易网

原文如下：

$759bn needed for a net-zero petchem sector by 2050: study

Petrochemicals could be made with almost no carbon emissions by investing an extra $759 billion by 2050, according to a new report from research firm BloombergNEF (BNEF). 

Electrification and carbon capture and storage are likely to play a central role in reducing emissions from the production of high-value chemicals, or HVCs, which are key feedstocks used to make plastics and many manufactured goods. HVCs are responsible for up to 2% of global emissions, equivalent to aviation, and double the aluminum industry’s contribution.

Governments and corporate net-zero commitments are pushing the petrochemicals industry to cut its emissions by 2050. Despite facing a more complex decarbonisation path than any other sector, petrochemicals players’ net-zero targets cover more of the global manufacturing capacity than other heavy emitters like steel and cement. 

The report “Decarbonizing Petrochemicals: A Net Zero Pathway” outlines a pathway to low-emissions chemicals and describes how a combination of falling carbon capture and storage (CCS) and electrification costs could reduce emissions to net zero, even while total production grows significantly. 

BNEF estimates that new clean capacity and retrofits for lower emissions will cost the petrochemicals industry an additional $759 billion compared to business-as-usual capacity growth. This is roughly 1% of the $172 trillion estimated by BNEF to be needed to decarbonise the global energy sector by 2050. 

Capex intesive but crucial

Decarbonising chemicals will be capex-intensive, but it is crucial for all new capacity and retrofits beyond 2030 to be net-zero, to avoid the risk of stranding assets over their long lifetimes.

By 2050, CCS could be the cheapest option for net-zero petrochemicals and abate the emissions of 40% of HVC production. Another 35% would rely on new electrified cracker designs, which could provide the only net-zero production route that is cost-competitive with conventional steam crackers. Bioplastics, which are the only commercially available net-zero route today would capture only 2.5% of the market by 2050, due to high costs and a lack of sustainable biomass, says the report.

The important role that CCUS is likely to play is a unique opportunity for integrated oil majors, which already have expertise in the technology and could accelerate cost declines. Oil companies have been exploring a greater footprint in the petrochemicals space as a hedge against declining fuel demand. If these companies shift the focus of their CCUS investments into downstream assets, they could lead the transition by expanding net-zero petrochemicals production and driving down costs for the entire sector, it says.

Refiners' help needed

The petrochemicals supply chain cannot decarbonise without the help of refiners. Currently, most of the world’s supply of aromatics, a key chemical ingredient in products like PET bottles, is sourced from refineries as a by-product of fuel production. In a net-zero scenario, refinery retirements start in 2030 as demand for transport fuels peaks and then begins to fall due to passenger car electrification. This leaves a gap in aromatics supply that can currently only be addressed by using green methanol feedstock – an expensive route that would triple the price of many chemicals. This process would account for 20% of chemicals production, up from 0% today, unless refiners make a dramatic pivot to focus on chemicals production while simultaneously decarbonising their operations.

BNEF’s research shows low-carbon routes will remain more expensive than today’s production, despite some steep cost declines, in 2050. This could lead to persistent green premiums and create strong incentives to replace or reduce plastic and chemicals use in markets with net-zero mandates. Chemicals are crucial inputs to many industrial supply chains, so decarbonizing them could increase costs across several sectors. Unless cost declines are significantly accelerated, taxpayers will likely pay for long-term abatement either through higher prices or subsidies. 

“Large-scale capex spending must start before the end of the decade if the petrochemical industry has any hope of reaching net-zero,” said Ilhan Savut, sustainable materials analyst at BNEF and lead author of the report. “Deploying these technologies will be expensive in the short term, but it could set the sector on a lower-cost decarbonization path. Given their long asset lifetimes, chemicals players must move quickly and fund net-zero projects as soon as possible, or risk getting locked out of key technologies. Investments today will be key to managing longer-term costs and pay dividends post-2035.”

If green plastics are burned at the end of their life, they are no longer net-zero. “While many net-zero targets do not cover Scope 3 emissions, customers and investors will link incinerated plastic to oil and chemicals companies, as they did with plastic waste. The whole supply chain is a plastic producer’s problem,” said Julia Attwood, head of sustainable materials at BNEF. “A low-carbon petrochemical sector will require circular economy action. Producers are already working with refiners and waste managers to source circular and low-carbon feedstocks.”

While most net-zero capacity today is being driven by customer demand for sustainable plastics, policymakers can also kick-start decarbonisation in petrochemicals. Carbon pricing is often touted as a decarbonisation lever, but very high prices would be needed to incentivise change. At $250/tCO2, 80% of all net-zero HVCs production would be competitive with unabated production. Current prices in Europe sit at about $90/tCO2, and the prices seen by industrial emitters is actually much lower, thanks to generous free allowances. To incentivise quicker action, governments can provide longer-term subsidies to early adopters to justify higher production costs and invest in enabling infrastructure such as CO2 transport and storage networks and grids providing 24/7 clean power, the report said.