尽管供应链尚未完全理顺 可再生能源仍然“便宜”

高企的碳氢化合物价格使可再生能源对发电更具吸引力 

LCOE报告，风能和光伏发电的成本仍然低于化石燃料替代品  

碳氢化合物成本的上涨已经超过了可再生能源材料和安装成本的增长 

据油价网5月22日报道，随着能源转型的全面展开，新能源研究机构彭博新能源财经（BloombergNEF）估计，在未来30年，全球转型将需要大约173万亿美元的能源供应和基础设施投资，预计到2050年，可再生能源将满足我们85%的能源需求。BNEF预计，到2030年，电池行业的锂和镍消费量将至少达到目前水平的5倍。与此同时，用于多种电池类型的钴的需求将跃升约70%。铜、锰、铁、磷和石墨等各种电动汽车和电池大宗商品的需求将急剧上升，这些都是清洁能源技术所需的，也是扩大电网所需的。

不幸的是，可再生能源所需的大宗商品价格不断上涨，以及供应链的大规模中断，已经增加了建立新的绿色能源项目的成本，这可能会放慢转型的步伐。

这种趋势是有问题的，原因很简单，成本下降是清洁能源繁荣的主要推动力。

在过去的十年中，太阳能发电的价格下降了89%，而陆上风力发电的价格下降了70%。

与此同时，电动汽车电池价格的迅速下降也在推动电动汽车成为主流方面发挥了重要作用。据彭博社报道，在过去的十年中，电动汽车电池的价格已经从每千瓦时1200美元下降到2020年的137美元。对于一个50千瓦时电池组的电动汽车来说，这相当于节省了4.3万美元的实际成本。

但更重要的是，如今居高不下的天然气和煤炭价格帮助可再生能源保住了全球最便宜的新发电选择的桂冠——尽管设备和材料成本不断上涨。

根据西班牙开发商Acciona Energia通过能源情报的说法，“对可再生能源的需求依然强劲，因为它们比化石燃料更具竞争力”。

比石油和天然气便宜

能源情报的高级记者Philippe Roos在《最低能源成本报告》中分析了美国、西欧、日本、中东和亚洲发展中国家等5个地区的传统和可再生发电的发电成本，也被称为能源均衡成本(LCOE)。这些数据还包括中东和亚洲发展中国家石油、天然气和煤炭的盈亏平衡价格，是基于能源情报专有的LCOE模型得出的。

能源情报的研究表明，可再生能源在成本效益方面可能已经永久性地超过天然气，而对最低成本的竞争主要仍在太阳能光伏和陆上风能之间进行。即使在日本，这种趋势也是真实的。在日本，房地产的稀缺阻碍了土地密集型可再生能源的发展，陆上风能超过了煤炭，光伏取代了天然气。

根据LCOE的报告，“风能和光伏发电的成本仍然低于化石燃料替代品，尤其是在当前天然气和煤炭价格高企的情况下”，鉴于供应链问题同样困扰着这两个行业，可再生能源技术仍然是最便宜的。

而且，即使天然气价格下降，也只是在一定程度上让化石燃料更接近可再生能源。然而，这种情况目前看来不太可能发生。

但目前的迹象表明，化石燃料的高价格将持续很长一段时间。道达尔能源首席执行官潘彦磊最近表示，该公司可能会将欧洲天然气的长期价格预期从5美元/百万英热单位左右调整为10美元/百万英热单位左右。

季廷伟 摘译自 油价网

原文如下：

Renewables Remain ‘Cheap’ Despite Supply Chain Chaos

High hydrocarbon prices make renewables more attractive for power generation.

LCOE report: “wind and PV generation costs remain lower than fossil fuel alternatives.

Rising costs of hydrocarbons have outpaced growing material and installation costs for renewables.

With the energy transition in full swing, new energy research provider BloombergNEF estimates that the global transition will require ~$173 trillion in energy supply and infrastructure investment over the next three decades, with renewable energy expected to provide 85% of our energy needs by 2050. BNEF projects that by 2030, consumption of lithium and nickel by the battery sector will be at least 5x current levels. Meanwhile, demand for cobalt, used in many battery types, will jump by about 70%. Diverse EV and battery commodities such as copper, manganese, iron, phosphorus, and graphite--all of which are needed in clean energy technologies and are required to expand electricity grids--will see sharp spikes in demand. 

Unfortunately, rising prices of the commodities needed for renewable energy as well as massive supply chain disruptions have been increasing the costs of setting up new green power projects, which could slow down the pace of the transition. 

This trend is problematic for the simple reason that falling costs have been the major driving force for the clean energy boom.

Over the past decade, the price of solar electricity dropped 89%, while the price of onshore wind fell by 70%.

Meanwhile, rapidly falling EV battery prices have played a big role in helping electric vehicles go mainstream. As per Bloomberg, over the past decade, EV battery prices have fallen from almost $1,200 per kilowatt-hour to just $137/kWh in 2020. For an EV with a 50 kWh battery pack, that adds up to savings of more than $43,000 in real terms.

But here’s the kicker: today’s stratospheric gas and coal prices have helped renewables retain their crown as the cheapest option for new power generation across the globe--despite rising equipment and materials costs.

According to Spanish developer Acciona Energia via Energy Intelligence, ‘‘the appetite for renewables remains strong as they are "massively" more competitive than fossil fuels.’’

Cheaper than oil and gas

In its lowest Energy Cost Report, Energy Intelligence’s senior reporter Philippe Roos has analyzed the the cost of generating electricity, also known as levelized cost of energy (LCOE), of conventional and renewable forms of electricity generation in five regions: the U.S., Western Europe, Japan, the Mideast and developing Asia. The data, which also include break-even prices for oil, gas and coal in the Mideast and developing Asia, is based on Energy Intelligence’s proprietary LCOE model. 

he EI study reveals that renewables have probably overtaken gas permanently on cost-effectiveness, with the race for lowest cost remaining mostly between solar photovoltaic (PV) and onshore wind. This trend rings true even in Japan, where the scarcity of real estate handicaps land-intensive renewables, onshore wind beats coal and PV displaces gas.

According to the LCOE report, “wind and PV generation costs remain lower than fossil fuel alternatives, especially with current high gas and coal prices”, and with supply chain issues troubling both sectors equally, renewable technologies are still the cheapest.  

And even if gas prices fall, it will at this point only partly bring fossil fuels closer to par with renewables. That scenario, however, doesn’t look likely at this time. 

But current indications are that high fossil fuel prices are here for the long-haul: TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) CEO Patrick Pouyanne recently said that the company might change its long-term gas price assumption in Europe from around $5/MMBtu to around $10/MMBtu.