中东和北非未来5年能源投资将超过8790亿美元

据阿拉伯贸易网2022年6月15日达曼报道，根据一项研究，未来5年，中东和北非地区已计划和已承诺的能源投资总额预计将增加9%，超过8790亿美元。

多边金融机构阿拉伯石油投资公司（Apicorp）发布的题为《中东和北非地区2022-2026年能源投资展望》报告称，未来5年中东和北非地区预计投资额将比去年5年展望报告中估计的8050亿美元增加740亿美元。

报告称，沙特阿拉伯在中东和北非地区的能源投资最多，其次是伊拉克、埃及和阿联酋。

报告指出，地缘政治冲突对中东和北非地区的能源格局产生了截然不同的影响，由于战争导致石油和天然气价格飙升，净能源出口国率先增加了项目支出。然而，该报告称，未来5年，全球地缘政治动荡和宏观经济逆风不会影响中东和北非地区的石油、天然气、电力和石化投资增长。 

在海湾合作委员会，已承诺的项目占总能源投资的45%左右，比中东和北非地区30%的平均水平高出50%。报告称，对于北非和黎凡特地区的能源净进口国来说，战争引发的地缘政治风险，加上通胀和债务负担带来的经济压力，使它们相对脆弱的脆弱性开始显现，并影响到能源投资。  

Apicorp高级能源专家Ramy Al-Ashmawy表示：“我们最新的中东和北非能源投资展望报告显示，中东和北非地区继续在其独特的能源转型道路上取得进展。未来，中东和北非国家承担着全球油气投资的最大份额，以确保全球能源安全，避免可能严重阻碍世界经济的超级周期。与此同时，中东和北非地区继续投资于脱碳、可再生能源和清洁能源，作为低碳未来的长期战略愿景的一部分，以更绿色、更平衡和可持续的能源结构为基础。” 

蓝氢和绿氢

Apicorp的分析结果显示，在整个中东和北非地区，蓝氢和绿氢将在近期主导新兴的氢市场。报告预测，由于市场基础的建立，氢市场将开始扩大，而对于中东和北非地区——特别是海合会和北非——重点将是通过氨气运输向欧洲和东南亚的需求中心出口低碳氢。

Apicorp的高级能源专家Suhail Shatila说：“从中期来看，蓝氢对中东和北非地区来说是一个更有吸引力的选择。蓝氢的生产成本相对较低，而且只会对国际石油公司和国家石油公司现有的商业模式造成轻微影响。这是能源转型过程中的一个核心指标，因为油气生产商将在油气上游行业脱碳方面发挥关键作用，并有助于在本世纪中叶实现净零目标。” 

能源多样化

能源多样化是最重要的议题，一些中东和北非国家将可再生能源纳入他们发电结构，作为共同政策目标的一部分，以低成本、低碳能源来源实现电力结构多样化，并加强电力供应安全。

对于具有强大可再生能源潜力的油气净进口国来说，其目标是减少对传统燃料进口的依赖，并将低成本可再生能源整合到国内电网中。报告指出，未来几年，油气净出口国的首要任务是放开常规燃料的出口量，以在健康的价格环境下实现收入最大化，为社会经济发展提供资金，并支持各自实现净零目标的脱碳举措。

虽然很少有中东和北非国家已经承诺实现净零目标（阿联酋到2050年前，沙特阿拉伯和巴林到2060年前），但通过可再生能源实现电气化将是实现这些目标的关键驱动力。然而，由于可再生能源的间歇性，以及迄今为止缺乏公用事业规模的电网储存解决方案，传统燃料和核电仍将是电力供应组合的关键。 

可再生能源增长

预计今年中东和北非地区可再生能源装机容量将增加5.6吉瓦，几乎是2021年新增的3吉瓦的两倍。到2026年前，中东和北非地区可再生能源装机容量预计将增加33吉瓦，其中公用事业和分布式太阳能光伏装机容量约为26吉瓦。

在中东和北非地区，摩洛哥和约旦在实现可再生能源政策目标方面处于领先地位。两国已实现短期政策目标，摩洛哥可再生能源装机容量在2021年达到近40%，约旦达到近20%。沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、埃及和阿曼等其他国家的可再生能源发电量相对较低，但随着几个已计划和已承诺的大容量项目正在进行，这一份额预计将显著增加。 

发电结构

Apicorp预测，在构成中东和北非地区电力组合的能源载体中，天然气——已经是发电的主要燃料——预计到2024年前将保持中东和北非地区70%至75%的发电份额。另一个积极的可持续发展信号是燃油发电，预计到2024年前，燃油发电占中东和北非地区总发电量的比例将从24%下降到20%左右。

在沙特阿拉伯，天然气发电预计将在未来5年内增加，而燃油发电量预计将下降，由此，燃油发电在电力结构中的份额预计将从2021年的32%下降到2022年的30%以下。在阿联酋，天然气约占发电结构的90%，随着该国利用核能和可再生能源实现电力供应结构的多样化，预计未来5年天然气占发电结构的比例将降至不到60%。

中东和北非地区的核能发电规模相对较小，占2021年总发电结构的3%，以阿联酋为首。埃及计划中的第一座核电站——4.8吉瓦的“El Dabaa”设施——预计将于2026年投入使用。沙特阿拉伯和约旦也宣布，他们打算在这10年内将核能发电纳入其能源结构。

规则与融资

Apicorp的分析报告指出，油气公司在努力促进社会经济发展和提供可负担能源的同时，正面临着更严格的融资条件和应对不断变化的监管框架。因此，中东和北非地区政府将继续承担油气投资的主要部分，以确保供应安全。

2021年，考虑到中东和北非地区的能源转型的双重方法，该地区的股票市场见证了常规和可再生能源的交易流量恢复健康。今年中东和北非地区强劲的私有化势头预计将继续下去，随着PPP和IPO的增加，世界级油气资产将释放价值，同时通过PPP实现协同效应。

2021年中东和北非地区发行的绿色和可持续性债券达到186.4亿美元，是2020年的3倍多。2021年还见证了沙特证券交易所（Tadawul）第一个中东和北非地区自愿碳交易计划的诞生，为发展一个正式的碳信用和抵消交易市场铺平了道路。根据阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯和巴林最近的净零排放承诺，碳市场有望在中东和北非地区蓬勃发展，因为油气、石化和重工业生产商将需要碳交易平台来抵消他们的部分排放，特别是在难以减排的行业。 

李峻 编译自 阿拉伯贸易网

原文如下：

MENA five-year energy investments to top $879bn

The total planned and committed energy investments in the MENA region are expected to increase by 9% to exceed $879 billion over the next five years, according to a study.

The  MENA Energy Investment Outlook 2022-2026 released by the Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (Apicorp), a multilateral financial institution, says projected investments are a $74 billion jump from the $805 billion estimated in last year’s five-year outlook. 

Saudi Arabia leads the region in energy investments, followed by Iraq, Egypt and UAE, the report says.

The report notes that the  war has led to contrasting impacts on the region’s energy landscape, with net-energy exporters spearheading the increase in project expenditure thanks to the windfall of oil and gas revenues caused by the spike in prices driven by the war. However, global geopolitical volatility and macro headwinds are not curtailing oil, gas, power and petrochemicals investment growth in MENA for the upcoming five years, said the report.

In the GCC, committed projects comprise around 45% of total energy investments – 50% higher than the MENA-wide average of 30%. For net-energy importers in the North Africa and Levant regions, their relative vulnerability to geopolitical risks stemming from the war compounded by the economic strains of inflation and debt burdens are beginning to show and impact energy investments, it said. 

Ramy Al-Ashmawy, Senior Energy Specialist at Apicorp, said: “Our latest MENA Energy Investment Outlook shows that the region continues to progress in its unique energy transition path. MENA countries shoulder the largest share of global investments in oil and gas going forward to ensure global energy security and avoid an impending super cycle that may severely hamper the world economy. At the same time, the region continues to invest in decarbonization, renewables and clean energy as part of the long-term strategic vision for a low-carbon future underpinned by a greener, more balanced, and sustainable energy mix.” 

Blue and green hydrogen

Apicorp’s analysis shows that right across the region, blue and green hydrogen will dominate the emerging hydrogen markets in the near term. The report forecasts that hydrogen markets will start scaling up as the market foundations are established, and for the MENA region – GCC and North Africa specifically – the focus will be on exporting low-carbon hydrogen to demand centres in Europe and SE Asia via ammonia shipments.

Suhail Shatila, Senior Energy Specialist at Apicorp, said: “In the medium term, blue hydrogen proves to be a more attractive option to the MENA region. Blue hydrogen can be produced at a relatively low cost, and it will only slightly disrupt the IOC and NOC’s existing business models. This is a central metric in the energy transition journey since hydrocarbon producers will play a key role in decarbonizing the upstream oil and gas sector and help reach net-zero targets by mid-century.”

Energy Diversification

Energy diversification is at the top of the agenda, with several MENA countries integrating renewables in their generation mix as part of a shared policy objective to diversify the power mix with low-cost, low-carbon energy sources and bolster power supply security.

For hydrocarbon net-importing countries with robust renewables potential, the aim is to reduce dependence on conventional fuel imports and integrate low-cost renewables into domestic grids. Over the coming years, the priority for hydrocarbon net exporters is to free up export volumes of conventional fuels to maximize revenues at healthy price environments to fund socioeconomic development and support the decarbonization initiatives of their respective net-zero targets, the report points out.

Although few MENA countries have already pledged their net-zero targets (the UAE by 2050 and Saudi Arabia and Bahrain by 2060), electrification via renewable energy sources will be a key driver to reach those targets. However, due to the intermittency of renewable energy sources and the lack of utility-scale grid storage solutions to date, conventional fuels and nuclear will remain essential in the power supply mix. 

Renewables growth

The MENA region is expected to add 5.6 GW of installed capacity from renewables in 2022, nearly double the 3 GW which came online in 2021. By 2026, the region is expected to add 33 GW by installed capacity of renewables, with around 26 GW as utility and distributed solar PV.

Leading the charge of meeting renewables policy targets in MENA are Morocco and Jordan. The two countries have achieved their short-term policy targets, with Morocco reaching almost 40% of its installed capacity from renewable energy in 2021 and Jordan reaching nearly 20%. Other countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, and Oman have relatively low renewable energy generation, but the share is expected to witness a significant increase with several planned and committed large-capacity projects in the pipeline. 

Power generation mix

Apicorp forecasts that of the energy vectors constituting the power mix in MENA, natural gas – which is already a dominant fuel for power generation – is expected to grow to maintain a power generation share of around 70% to 75% across MENA by 2024. Another positive sustainability signal oil-fired power, which is expected to drop from 24% of total generation to around 20% by 2024. 

In Saudi Arabia, gas-fired generation is projected to rise in the upcoming five years, while oil-fired power output is expected to drop over the same period, whereby the share of oil-fired generation in the power mix is projected to drop to less than 30% in 2022 from an estimated 32% in 2021. In the UAE, natural gas constitutes around 90% of the power generation mix and is expected to drop to less than 60% in the next five years as the country diversifies its supply mix with nuclear and renewables.

Nuclear power generation in MENA remains relatively modest, comprising 3% of the total generation mix in 2021, led by the UAE. Egypt’s first planned nuclear power plant - the 4.8 GW ‘El Dabaa’ facility – is expected to come online in 2026. Saudi Arabia and Jordan also announced their intent to add nuclear energy to their power mix during this decade.

Regulations, financing

Apicorp’s analysis points out that oil and gas companies are facing tighter financing conditions and addressing evolving regulatory frameworks while trying to contribute to socio-economic development and the provision of affordable energy. Consequently, MENA governments continue to shoulder the main portion of hydrocarbon investments going forward to ensure the security of supply.

MENA equity markets in 2021 witnessed the return to healthy deal flow volumes in both conventional and renewable energy, given the region’s dual approach to the energy transition. It is expected that the strong regional privatisation drive will continue in 2022, with increased PPPs and IPOs unlocking value from world-class hydrocarbon assets while targeting synergies through PPPs.

MENA green and sustainability bonds issued in 2021 more than tripled compared to 2020 to $18.64 billion. 2021 also witnessed the birth of MENA’s first voluntary carbon trading scheme by the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul), paving the way for the development of a formal carbon market for trading credits and offsets. Under the recent net-zero pledges of the UAE, KSA, and Bahrain, carbon markets are expected to flourish in the region as hydrocarbon, petrochemical and heavy industry producers will need carbon trading platforms to offset part of their emissions especially in the hard-to-abate industries.