2030年前全球石化市场规模将达到1万亿美元左右

全球摆脱化石燃料的行动主要集中在运输和工业领域，但石化行业在未来几十年仍将需要化石燃料  

石化市场的价值预计到2030年前将增长到10亿美元，从而增加其对原油和天然气的需求  

虽然石化行业几乎可以肯定会在未来10年看到增长，但它将需要在脱碳业务上大举投资  

据美国油价网6月16日报道，尽管全球各国都在制定雄心勃勃的目标，以减少对化石燃料的依赖，但在未来几十年里，许多国家的石化生产仍将依赖石油和天然气。然而，由于许多国家的政府在努力履行其气候承诺的同时，也在应对全球需求，石油和天然气业务的脱碳很可能成为石化行业成功的关键。最近的一份石化报告显示，到2030年前，石化市场规模将达到1万亿美元左右，在未来8年以6.2%的复合年增长率增长。建筑、纺织、医疗、制药、消费品、汽车、电子等行业的石化产品需求预计将大幅增加。 

目前，乙烯、丙烯和苯是主要的石化产品，被用于包装、电子、塑料和橡胶工业。大多数石化产品使用原油和天然气制造，使得许多行业高度依赖化石燃料行业。 

由于强有力的监管政策对石化行业的支持，亚太地区预计将在未来十年主导石化市场。增加天然气产量——以弥补能源向可再生替代品过渡的差距——将支持石化工业的发展。

国际能源署预测，全球原油需求将持续增长到2025年，然后在2026年至2050年期间以1%的复合年增长率下降。国际能源署认为，石油作为石化原料的使用是唯一一个需求将增长的领域，到2050年前，石油石化市场将占全球石油需求的55%。 

但我们可以预期，由于许多国家努力减少温室气体排放，石油化工行业将出现更大规模的脱碳，这将推动价格上涨。根据最近的分析，预计将需要7590亿美元来通过电气化、碳捕获和储存(CCS)技术以及其他关键创新来实现石化行业的脱碳。 

彭博新能源财经5月份发布了一份题为《石化产品脱碳：净零路径》的报告，该报告解释了“（石化产品的)低碳路线将比今天的生产成本更高”，尽管生产成本将会下降。这可能导致引入“绿色溢价”(green premium)，以提供“强有力的激励措施，以净零要求取代或减少市场上塑料和化学品的使用”。 

BNEF报告的主要作者Ilhan Savut表示：“政府和企业的净零承诺正在推动石化行业在2050年前削减其排放。尽管石化行业的脱碳路径比其他任何行业都要复杂，但与钢铁和水泥等其他重排放行业相比，石化企业的净零目标涵盖了更多的全球制造能力。” 

Savut认为，现在对碳减排技术的大量投资将有助于油气公司在2035年后保持其影响力。由于大规模可再生能源变得更加廉价，石化产品的创新替代品被引入市场，在未来十年建立低碳运营可以帮助化石燃料驱动的公司保持竞争力。 

大多数大型石油和天然气公司已经开始将CCS技术引入运营中，以期在一个逐渐远离化石燃料、试图脱碳的世界中延长它们的生存时间。尽管人们对可再生能源寄予了巨大的希望，但毫无疑问，不断增长的全球燃料需求将意味着对化石燃料的持续依赖，直到可再生能源产业发展到足以满足这些需求。

与此同时，政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)正在研究如何最好地降低能源行业的碳含量。它模拟了数百种实现2015年巴黎气候协定目标的潜在情景，目标是到2050年前实现净零碳排放，发现使用CCS技术是最有效的解决方法。

虽然石化行业脱碳的成本听起来很高，但它实际上只占全球能源行业脱碳所需的172万亿美元的1%左右。该报告还建议，未来化工行业需要投资替代能源，如生物质和绿色氢。

由于全球对石化产品的需求持续增加，石化工业预计将在未来二十年继续增长。这将是未来30年石油和天然气需求的主要驱动力，尽管我们看到取暖和运输对化石燃料的依赖有所减少。然而，由于各国政府向石油公司施压，要求它们在运营过程中降低碳排放，这将需要大量投资来将CCS和其他技术引入项目中，以确保石化行业在低碳世界中仍能发挥作用。

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

The Petrochemical Industry Is Set To Explode

The global movement to ditch fossil fuels is largely focused on transport and industry, but the petrochemical industry will need fossil fuels for decades to come.

The value of the petrochemical market is forecast to grow to $1 billion by 2030, increasing its demand for crude oil and natural gas.

While the petrochemical industry is all but certain to see growth in the coming decade, it will need to invest heavily in decarbonizing operations.

As countries around the globe are setting ambitious targets to reduce their dependency on fossil fuels, many will remain reliant on oil and gas for petrochemical production for decades to come. However, the decarbonization of oil and gas operations may well become key to the success of the industry, as many governments strive to keep their climate pledges while also responding to global demand. A recent petrochemical report suggests that the petrochemical market size will reach around $1 trillion by 2030, increasing at a CAGR of 6.2 percent over the next eight years. The increase in demand will be mainly centered around the construction, textile, medical, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, automotive, and electronics industries.

At present, ethylene, propylene, and benzene are the main petrochemicals being used across the packaging, electronics, plastics, and rubber industries. Most petrochemical products are manufactured using crude oil and natural gas, making many industries highly reliant on the fossil fuel sector. 

The Asia Pacific region is expected to dominate the petrochemical market over the next decade thanks to strong regulatory policies supporting the industry. And an increase in natural gas production – to bridge the gap in the energy transition to renewable alternatives – will support the development of the petrochemical industry. 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global crude demand will continue to increase until 2025, before decreasing at a CAGR of 1 percent between 2026 and 2050. The IEA believes that oil use as a petrochemical feedstock is the only area that will see an increase in demand, with 55 percent of all global oil demand contributing to the petrochemical market by 2050. 

But we can expect to see greater decarbonization in the petrochemical industry, as many countries strive to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, which will drive prices up. An anticipated $759 billion will be required to decarbonize the sector through electrification, carbon capture and s torage (CCS) technologies, and other key innovations, according to recent analyses. 

A BloombergNEF (BNEF) report, released last month, entitled Decarbonizing Petrochemicals: A Net Zero Pathway, explains how “low-carbon routes [for petrochemicals] will remain more expensive than today’s production”, even though there will be a decrease in production costs. This could lead to the introduction of “green premiums” to provide “strong incentives to replace or reduce plastic and chemicals use in markets with net-zero mandates”.

The lead author of the BNEF report, Ilhan Savut, stated “Governments and corporate net-zero commitments are pushing the petrochemicals industry to cut its emissions by 2050. Despite facing a more complex decarbonization path than any other sector, petrochemicals players’ net-zero targets cover more of the global manufacturing capacity than other heavy emitters like steel and cement.”

Savut suggests that big investments in carbon-cutting technologies now will help oil and gas companies to stay relevant post-2035. Establishing low-carbon operations over the next decade could help fossil fuel-driven firms to remain competitive as larger-scale renewable energy becomes more affordable, and innovative alternatives to petrochemical products are introduced to the market.

Most major oil and gas companies have already begun to introduce CCS technologies into their operations, in a bid to enhance their longevity in a world that is gradually moving away from fossil fuels in an attempt to decarbonize. Despite huge hopes for renewables, there is no doubt that the rising global fuel demand will mean a continued reliance on fossil fuels until the renewable energy industry becomes large enough to meet these needs. 

In the meantime, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is researching how to best decarbonize the energy industry. It has modeled hundreds of potential scenarios to achieve the 2015 Paris climate agreement goals, aiming for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, finding that the use of CCS technologies was the most effective.

While the cost of decarbonizing the petrochemical industry sounds significant, it actually amounts to around just 1 percent of the $172 trillion total needed to decarbonize the global energy sector. The report also suggests that the industry will need to invest in alternative energy sources for chemical manufacturing in the future, such as biomass and green hydrogen. 

The petrochemical industry is expected to continue to grow well into the next two decades, with the demand for petrochemical products continuing to increase worldwide. This will be a major driver for oil and gas demand over the next 30 years, even as we see a decrease in the reliance on fossil fuels for heating and transport. However, as governments put pressure on oil firms to decarbonize their operations, large investments will be required to introduce CCS and other technologies into projects to ensure that the petrochemical industry can remain relevant in a low-carbon world.