5月份欧佩克+再次未能达到产量目标

能源咨询调查显示，欧佩克+5月份再次未能实现产量目标

今年4月份，仅欧佩克就平均日减270万桶原油产量，未达目标  

安哥拉、赤道几内亚和刚果5月份的原油产量也远低于配额  

据美国油价网6月10日报道，能源咨询的一项调查发现，由于许多欧佩克成员国的原油产量持续下降，5月份欧佩克+再次未能达到其原油产量目标。

4月份，仅欧佩克就每日减产270万桶，尽管5月份原油产量略有改善，但原油总产量仍远低于配额。Herman指出，5月份，尼日利亚的原油产量降至欧佩克原油产量以来的最低水平。安哥拉、赤道几内亚和刚果5月份的原油产量也远低于配额，大多数欧佩克+联盟成员国的原油产量也低于协议。大国的原油产量在4月份下降后，5月份实际上有所上升。  

欧佩克+日前同意在7月和8月日增64.8万桶原油产量，而不是最初商定的日增43.2万桶原油产量。一些观察人士认为这意味着西方外交的成功，但市场的反应乍一看可能是违反直觉的，在增产声明宣布后，原油价格实际有所上涨了。 

事实上，许多欧佩克成员国一直在努力完成他们最初的生产配额，这不是什么秘密。只有沙特、阿联酋和科威特拥有可以迅速利用的备用产能来弥补短缺。然而，他们可能不愿意这样做，因为更多的备用产能被消耗意味着当停产发生时剩余的备用产能就更少了。 

据路透社转引摩根大通分析师本周的一份报告：“我们预计7月份欧佩克+原油产量将日增大约16万桶，8月将日增大约17万桶。”

所有这些都表明，正如英国《金融时报》的戴维•谢泼德最近在一篇专栏文章中指出的那样，世界可能需要为油价进一步上涨做好准备。  

谢泼德说：“所有这些因素都表明，油价会不断上涨，直到达到降低消费的水平，可能是通过引发足以抑制需求的经济放缓。换句话说，对许多经济体来说，这实际上是一场衰退。”

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

OPEC+ Fails To Meet Output Target once Again

Survey shows that OPEC+ missed its production target again in May.

In April, OPEC alone missed its target by 2.7 million barrels daily.

Angola, Equatorial Guinea, and Congo also produced well below quotas in May.

OPEC+ once again fell short of its oil production targets in May on continued production declines in many OPEC members, a survey showed, as cited by OPEC and Middle East managing editor Herman Wang.

In April, OPEC alone missed its target by 2.7 million barrels daily, and while there was a slight improvement in May, the total was still well below quotas. Last month, production in Nigeria dropped to the lowest since it has been surveying OPEC output, Wang noted.

Angola, Equatorial Guinea, and Congo also produced well below quotas last month, and most of the OPEC+ partners also produced less than agreed. the world's largest oil producer's production actually inched up in May after falling in April.

OPEC+ agreed last week to boost production in July and August by 648,000 bpd instead of the originally agreed 432,000 bpd. Some observers took that to mean success for Western diplomacy, but the market reacted in what was perhaps a counterintuitive, at first glance, way, with prices actually rising after the announcement.

Indeed, many OPEC members have been struggling to fulfill their original production quotas, and that has been no secret. only Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait have spare capacity that can be quickly tapped to make up for shortfalls. However, they may be reluctant to do that as more spare capacity being tapped means less spare capacity left for when an outage happens.

"With only a handful of ... OPEC+ participants with spare capacity, we expect the increase in OPEC+ output to be about 160,000 barrels per day in July and 170,000 bpd in August," JP Morgan analysts wrote in a note, as cited by Reuters, this week.

What all this suggests is that, as the FT's David Sheppard noted in a recent column, the world may need to brace up for even higher oil prices.

Sheppard wrote. "All these factors point to rising oil prices until a level is reached that reduces consumption, probably by triggering an economic slowdown large enough to curtail demand. In other words, a recession for many economies."