高盛银行将布伦特原油的短期目标价从每桶125美元上调至140美元
市场需求的复苏和主力产油国产量的潜在下降可能会进一步推高油价
高盛银行认为全球石油市场仍处于结构性赤字，需要油价大幅上涨才能恢复平衡
据美国油价网6月7日报道，高盛银行本周将布伦特原油的短期目标价从每桶125美元上调至140美元，称结构性短缺问题迄今尚未解决。
在美国金融网站Zero Hedge发布的一份报告中，这家美国著名投行的能源研究大宗商品主管达米安·库尔瓦林指出，今年早些时候，石油供需出现了短暂的平衡，产油大国出口的降幅相对较小，战略石油储备出现了创纪录的下降。
不过，这位分析师在这份报告中也指出，在短暂的平衡期过后，市场需求已经开始复苏，供需短暂平衡的情况已经结束。 另一方面，据库尔瓦林称，大国石油日产量可能再下降50万桶。
彭博新闻社报道称，根据作者的说法，布伦特原油价格需要在从7月开始的12个月里达到平均每桶135美元，全球原油库存才能在2023年底前恢复到正常水平。
高盛银行表示，其结果是，全球石油市场仍处于结构性赤字状态，需要大幅上涨的油价才能恢复平衡。
上周，随着欧佩克+决定在每月增产20多万桶的基础上增加产量，油价非但没有下跌，反而上涨了，这一结构性赤字的严重程度已经很明显了。
造成这种市场如此反应的一个原因是，实际上很少有欧佩克成员国有多余的产能来增加产量，超过目前的产量，有几个重要成员国都在努力达到目前的配额，更不用说提高配额了。另一个原因是，尽管价格上涨，但需求似乎确实依然强劲，正如高盛银行的库尔瓦林所指出的那样，这表明价格需要继续上涨，才能开始对需求产生实质性影响。
花旗银行本周也上调了油价预期。在一片看涨声中罕见看跌的花旗银行提出了修订油价预期的依据。
花旗银行分析师表示：“由于供需平衡逐渐放松，我们继续认为，在经历了短期的飙升之后，原油价格将出现下降趋势。”
李峻 编译自 美国油价网
原文如下：
Goldman Now Sees Oil Hitting $140 This Summer
· Goldman Sachs raised its short-term target for Brent crude from $125 to $140.
· Recovery in market demand and a potential drop in production may further lift prices.
· Goldman: the global oil market remains in a structural deficit and would need much higher prices to regain its balance.
Goldman Sachs this week raised its price target for Brent crude to $140 per barrel from $125 per barrel, citing unresolved structural shortages.
Per a ZeroHedge report, the investment bank's commodity head of energy research, Damien Courvalin, noted the brief period of balance in oil earlier this year, the relatively insignificant reduction in Russian exports and the record drawdowns from strategic petroleum reserves.
After that brief period of balance, however, is ending already, the analyst also noted in a note, as demand is already recovering. On the other hand,oil production could fall by another half a million barrels daily, according to Courvalin.
According to the authors of the note, Brent crude would need to average $135 per barrel in the 12 months beginning July for global stocks of the commodity to recover to normal levels by the end f 2023, Bloomberg reported.
As a result, the global oil market remains in a structural deficit and would need much higher prices to regain its balance, according to the investment bank.
Just how serious this structural deficit appears to be was made very clear last week when, following OPEC+'s decision to add more barrels to its monthly production boost—over 200,000 bpd more barrels—oil prices rose, rather than falling.
One reason for this market reaction was the fact that few OPEC members actually have the spare capacity to increase production by more than they are currently pumping, with several large members struggling to hit their current quotas, let alone boost them.
Another was that demand indeed appears to still be strong despite the rally in prices, suggesting, as Goldman's Courvalin noted, that prices need to go higher in order to start affecting demand in any meaningful way.
Citi also revised upwards its oil price forecast this week. A rare bear among bulls, Citi cited a new reason as the basis for its revision.
"We continue to see a downward trend to prices after a spiky near-term period, on progressively loosening supply-demand balances," the bank's analysts said.
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