据美国油价网2022年6月24日报道 ，五名路透社消息人士日前表示，欧佩克+预计下周将批准其8月份日增64.8万桶原油产量的决定。
当然，这是消息人士在上次会议前说的，尽管欧佩克+决定提高远超计划的原油产量。
在上次会议上，欧佩克+同意7月份日增64.8万桶原油产量，8月份日增64.8万桶原油产量。欧佩克+原预期将日增43.2万桶原油产量。
目前的提议是欧佩克+将9月份的增产计划提前，将增产时间延伸至7月和8月。但即使下周的欧佩克+会议确认8月的初步计划，也不太可能达到这一目标。
5月份，欧佩克+的原油日产量比目标低270万桶。阿联酋能源部长表示，6月份该国的原油日产量仍比目标低260万桶。随后阿联酋又将7月份的原油日产量目标提高64.8万桶——8月份的原油日产量目标比7月份的目标还要高64.8万桶。
一些人会认为，这种严重的生产不足不仅说明欧佩克+缺乏市场管理的备用产能，而且还说明欧佩克+在8月份实现新目标的可能性很小。为了实现这一目标，欧佩克+需要在目前的基础上日增近400万桶的原油产量。
自欧佩克+去年开始逆转从2020年4月开始的创纪录减产以来，欧佩克+一直在努力满足其产量配额，因为许多成员国缺乏备用产能或投资来增加生产。 只有三个成员国——沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和伊拉克——被认为拥有有意义的备用产能。
李峻 编译自 美国油价网
原文如下：
August OPEC+ Plans Will Likely Be Rubberstamped
OPEC+ is largely expected to rubber-stamp next week its decision to boost production in August by 648,000 bpd, five Reuters sources said on Thursday.
Of course, that’s what sources said leading up to the previous meeting as well—although the group decided to raise production by more than planned.
At the previous meeting, OPEC+ agreed to increase its production by 648,000 bpd for July and another 648,000 bpd in August. This compared to expectations for a 432,000 bpd increase.
The current proposal has OPEC+ bringing forward its planned hike for September, spreading it across both July and August. But even if next week’s OPEC+ meeting confirms this tentative plan for August, it is unlikely to hit that target.
For May, OPEC+ produced 2.7 million bpd below its target. For June, the UAE’s energy minister said the group was still pumping 2.6 million bpd below its target. Then it raised its target by another 648,000 for July—and the August target is another 648,000 bpd higher than that.
Some would argue that this significant underproduction not only speaks to the group’s lack of market-managing spare capacity, but also to the low probability that the group will hit its new target in August. In order to achieve this target, the group would need to increase its production by nearly 4 million barrels per day over what it is producing today.
Since OPEC+ started reversing last year the record cuts from April 2020, the group has been consistently struggling to meet its production quota as many members lack spare capacity or investment to increase production. only three members—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq—are thought to have meaningful capacity to spare.
免责声明：本网转载自其它媒体的文章，目的在于弘扬科技创新精神，传递更多科技创新信息，宣传国家科技政策，展示国家科技形象，增强国家科技软实力，参与国际科技舆论竞争，提高国际科技话语权，并不代表本网赞同其观点和对其真实性负责，在此我们谨向原作者和原媒体致以崇高敬意。如果您认为本网文章及图片侵犯了您的版权，请与我们联系，我们将第一时间删除。
