全球汽油和柴油危机能解决吗?

由于全球库存处于历史低点，柴油和汽油市场正在经历每桶50-60美元的价差  

由于世界各地取消与疫情相关的最后限制措施，全球石油需求复苏看起来有弹性  

在过去10年里，欧洲和美国的炼油产能都大幅下降，这使得更换低库存变得尤为困难 

据美国油价网6月20日报道，目前，全球柴油和汽油市场的价差“突飙”已经达到每桶50-60美元的水平，这表明炼油系统在决定供应柴油还是汽油方面存在明显的滞后。造成这种不稳定局面的原因是，全球库存处于历史最低水平，因此无法提供必要的缓冲手段。

挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司发表的研究报告显示，由于面临运营中断和产品遏制的挑战，大国炼油业务的损失导致欧洲柴油/汽油缺口每天超过100万桶，这个问题很不容易解决。 

分析主管Per Magnus Nysveen说，柴油是全球经济的命脉，对农业、建筑和运输等重要行业至关重要，其价格几乎影响所有的供应链和商品。各国政府面临着艰难的抉择。虽然可以通过降低柴油税来帮助消费者，它可以支持整体经济，但反而会使供应紧张的局面进一步恶化。如果供应没有改善，各国政府将被迫制定紧急计划，限制对消费者的销售，以确保关键行业的持续发展。 

在需求方面，由于正在取消与疫情相关的剩余限制措施，复苏是有弹性的。美国疾病控制和预防中心取消了入境航班所有新冠病毒检测要求的最新指南就是这样一个明确的指标。在供应方面，地缘政治冲突中断了欧洲市场的石油产品和原油供应，而世界其他地区的应对方式有限。

按地区划分的炼油厂 

原油供应的减少阻碍了不断萎缩的欧洲炼油行业以高利用率运行的能力，并加速了欧洲炼油业产能的下滑趋势。自2005年达到1750万桶的炼油日产能峰值以来，欧洲炼油日产能已减少200万桶。美国也出现类似的趋势，在过去的3-4年里，美国的炼油日产能下降了100万至150万桶。逐步淘汰氢氟酸（HF）烷基化技术的举措以及进口减压柴油（VGO）/渣油的可获得性降低，削弱了美国炼油行业提高汽油产量的能力。

总的来说，炼油成本随着天然气、氢气和公用事业成本的上涨而上涨。因此，由于需求的恢复，炼油系统受到限制，导致大多数国家的供应覆盖天数不稳定地下降。许多国家要求提高库存覆盖天数，这使得通过贸易流动解决地区产品失衡问题变得非常困难。

为了满足不断增长的需求，从今年6月到8月，炼油日产能将需要增加460万桶，而目前的预测为330万桶。由于总运行次数的增加有限，柴油与汽油的二级优化并没有提供太多的帮助。柴油/航空燃料被追求最大化，间接增加了汽油裂解的价差。 

亚洲的石化-芳香族系统也没有在最高水平运行，因为与疫情相关的需求已经减弱。这反映在亚洲石脑油裂解的持续减弱。因此，额外的汽油混合芳香成分不太可能增加汽油供应。强劲的超低硫燃料油(VLSFO)裂解也可能使更多的超低硫燃料油/残渣难以释放用于流化催化裂化(FCC)。 

汽油价格的暂时收缩

考虑到上述指标，雷斯塔认为，日前美国汽油价格的轻微收缩只是暂时的，未来的上涨是可以预期的。美国汽油库存水平继续下降，从地缘政治爆发冲突之初的2.46亿桶下降到目前的2.17亿桶。由于全球柴油库存处于较低水平，柴油裂解价差在未来一段时间也不太可能缓解。 

可能的出路 

提高轻中质含硫品质原油供应来最大限度地提高桶底升级将会产生显著的影响。美国政府额外释放4500万桶以轻质低硫原油为主的原油储备是一个积极的信号。欧佩克未能完成其产量目标，但美国即将访问沙特阿拉伯是一个关键的观察指标。亚洲/和中东的炼油业务超出了当地需求，这将在一定程度上缓解美国和欧盟的石油产品油短缺。

大国炼油和石油产品出口的损失不会轻易被世界其他国家弥补。高企的柴油价格将推动全球恶性通胀，并可能导致GDP收缩。需求破坏可能导致经济衰退，但这对消费者来说将是一个痛苦的经历。无论如何，在北半球的夏季，汽油和柴油的裂解价差预计将继续保持强劲。许多人希望从今年8月和9月开始出现温和的调整，但很多事情取决于对该国的制裁在年底前如何生效。

炼油行业目前就像一个没有打气筒的泄气的自行车轮胎——挤压轮胎的一侧以生产更多的柴油或航空燃料，将导致汽油供应恶化，反之亦然。对于运行的炼油厂来说，这是一个巨大的财源，能产生惊人的利润。难怪美国曾呼吁，在战争期间，炼油厂远高于正常水平的利润是不可接受的，炼油厂需要采取更多措施来缓解供应紧张的问题。 

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

Can The Global Gasoline And Diesel Crisis Be Solved?

Diesel and gasoline markets are witnessing crack spreads in the $50-$60 per barrel range due to inventory stocks across the world being at record lows.

The global oil demand recovery looks resilient as the final Covid-related restrictions are being removed around the world.

Refining capacity in both Europe and the U.S. has fallen dramatically in the last decade, making the replacement of low inventories particularly difficult.

Global diesel and gasoline markets are witnessing blowout crack spreads in the US$50-60 per barrel (bbl) range, reflecting a clear lag in the refining system to respond effectively and decide between supplying diesel or gasoline. The precarious situation is driven by inventory stocks across the globe being at their lowest levels historically and, therefore, unable to provide the necessary shock absorbers. The loss of refining owing to operational outages and product containment challenges has caused a diesel/gasoline hole greater than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in Europe that is not easy to plug, Rystad Energy research shows.

“Diesel is the lifeblood of the global economy, essential to vital sectors such as agriculture, construction, and transportation - its price impacts almost all supply chains and goods. Governments face tough decisions. They can assist consumers by dropping taxes on diesel, but this will likely only increase demand, which may support the overall economy but will worsen the existing tight supply situation. If supply does not improve, governments will be forced to enact emergency plans to limit sales to consumers in order to ensure essential sectors are kept going,” says Per Magnus Nysveen, Head of Analysis at Rystad Energy.

On the demand side, the recovery is resilient as residual Covid-related restrictions are being removed. The latest guidelines from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to remove all Covid testing requirements for incoming flights is one such clear indicator. On the supply side, the war has disrupted product flows and crude flows to the European market at a time when the rest of the world has limited ways in which to respond.

Refineries by region

The loss of crude supply has hindered the shrinking European refining sector’s ability to run at high utilization rates and has accelerated a downward trend in Europe which has lost 2 million bpd of crude refining since peak capacity of 17.5 million bpd in 2005. The US has been following a similar trend, losing between 1 million and 1.5 million bpd of refining capacity in the last 3-4 years. The move to phase out Hydrofluoric Acid (HF) Alkylation technology and lower availability of imported vacuum gas oil (VGO)/residues has dented the US refining sector’s ability to increase gasoline production.

Outside the European Union and the US, refinery capacity has been growing primarily to meet rising domestic demand. However, the pandemic has severely impacted the pace of additions with many Middle Eastern, African, and Asian refinery projects reporting delays owing to supply chain and resource issues. Recent news that Nigeria Dangote Refinery is unable to secure a commissioning team is a case in point. Latin American refining was already in decline prior to the pandemic and does not have much to offer, let alone meet domestic product supply.

Overall, the cost of refining has gone up alongside inflated gas, hydrogen, and utility costs. Thus, a constrained refining system as demand has recovered has resulted in precariously lower days of supply cover in most countries. Many have mandated higher days of stock cover making it hard to solve regional product imbalances with trade flows.

To meet rising demand, refining runs will need to increase by 4.6 million bpd from June to August 2022, compared to current projections of 3.3 million bpd. With a limited increase in overall runs, the second-order lever of diesel versus gasoline optimization does not have much to offer. Diesel/jet fuel maximization is being pursued and indirectly fueling gasoline crack spreads.

Asia’s petchem-aromatic system is not operating at its highest level either as pandemic-related demand has waned. This is reflected in the continued weakening of naphtha cracks in Asia. Therefore, additional gasoline blending aromatic components are unlikely to be available to bump up gasoline supply. Strong very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) cracks are also possibly making it harder for more VGO/residue to be diverted for fluidized catalytic cracking (FCC).

A temporary reprieve

Given the above indicators, Rystad Energy believes that gasoline’s slight contraction this week is only temporary and further upward movement can be expected. US gasoline stock levels continue their downward trend, from 246 million barrels at the beginning of the war to 217 million barrels presently. Diesel cracks are also unlikely to soften ahead with stocks across the globe at lower levels.

Potential pathways out of this

Higher crude supply of the right medium-sour quality to maximize bottom-of-barrel upgradation would make a significant difference. The US government’s release of 45 million additional barrels of predominantly light sweet crude is a positive signal. OPEC is falling behind on its targets but the upcoming visit of US to Saudi Arabia is a key signpost to watch. Asian and Middle Eastern refining runs in excess of domestic demand will offer some respite to plug shortages in the US and the EU. 

The loss of refining and product exports is not going to be plugged easily by the rest of the world. High diesel prices will drive hyperinflation globally and point towards a possible contraction in GDP. Demand destruction may lead to a recession and restore balance, but this will be a painful experience for consumers. Regardless, gasoline and diesel cracks are expected to continue to stay strong during the northern hemisphere’s summer. Many will be hoping for a moderate correction from August and September 2022 onwards, but a lot rests on how sanctions take effect towards year-end.

Refining is currently resembling a deflated bike tire without a pump - squeezing one side to make more diesel or jet fuel will cause the gasoline supply to worsen and vice-versa. For operating refineries, it is a bonanza, generating fantastic profits. No wonder then that US has issued a call that refinery profits well above normal are unacceptable and that refineries need to do more to ease supply.