沙特斥巨资投资蓝色氢气产业

氢气正在世界各地蓬勃发展，而沙特渴望从中分一杯羹

氢气和氢基燃料可以取代灰色氢气，增强沙特一系列产品的出口潜力

沙特已经是炼油行业和化工行业的氢气消费大国

据美国油价网报道，当世界开始建设未来氢气经济的基础设施时，无碳氢气的全球贸易经济正变得越来越清晰。沙特是预计将在这个未来市场中找到重大机会的国家之一。

根据利雅得一家著名研究机构最近一份报告，电解生产的绿色氢气将在2030年开始运往丹麦鹿特丹港，其价格与欧洲氢气相当有竞争力，这在一定程度上取决于所用的运输方式。

研究人员还看到沙特国内工业中氢气的巨大潜力。由于全球碳排放成本上升，氢气和氢基燃料可能取代灰色氢气，这将增强沙特一系列产品的出口潜力。

研究人员看到蓝色氢气（碳捕获）和绿色氢气（可再生能源）的巨大潜力，两种氢气的技术和生产成本都在逐渐下降。研究人员对蓝色氢气的前景较最近的一些分析更为乐观，这些分析人员预测，到2030年前，绿色氢气在全球许多地区的价格将超过蓝色氢气。

但沙特在生产两种低成本氢气方面的明显优势，可能会让它长期开发这两种氢气。因此，研究人员提倡一种平衡的方法，即国家内部的地区专业化。

现实假设  

这份题为《沙特氢气生产的经济和资源潜力》的报告是由阿卜杜拉国王石油研究中心(KAPSARC)在今年3月份对外发布的。

KAPSARC的研究人员基于对沙特天然气价格和可再生能源发电成本的现实假设，研究了现实的成本情景。KAPSARC的研究人员还仔细考虑了电解系统的预期成本和利用率等因素。

沙特阿拉伯已经是炼油行业和化工行业的氢气消费大国；主要是高碳排放产生的“灰色”氢气。到目前为止，这是生产天然气最便宜的方式，价格约为每公斤0.90美元。但在未来几年，蓝色氢气，尤其是绿色氢气的成本预计将大幅下降。

蓝色氢气的优势在于沙特的巨大天然气产量和其封闭的市场。沙特既不出口也不进口天然气，从而保持着较低的价格，目前为每百万英热单位1.25美元。按照这个价格，到2030年前，生产蓝色氢气的成本将从目前的每公斤1.34美元下降到1.13美元。这是假设随着碳捕获与储存(CCS)方法的推广，成本不断降低。

绿色氢气的成本高度依赖于可再生能源和电解所需的电力成本。根据每兆瓦时18.3美元(沙特新太阳能项目的平均拍卖价格)的电价计算，绿色氢气目前价格为每公斤2.16美元。研究人员认为，如果可再生电力成本降至每兆瓦时13美元，到2030年前，绿色氢气成本将降至每公斤1.48美元。

到2050年前，沙特的绿色氢气生产成本可能进一步下降到每公斤1美元。达到每公斤1美元的目标假设电解槽的投资费用降至每千瓦400美元，而可再生电力成本降至每兆瓦时10美元以下，这两种情况都是现实的。  

研究人员看到沙特在可再生电力生产中实现高利用率的能力的巨大优势。他们声称，沙特可再生能源生产的利用率可以达到60%；太阳能光伏-风能混合系统是可能的。事实上，沙特阿拉伯的大片地区，尤其是西部地区，有利太阳能和风能的生产。这大大超过了欧洲的风力发电，后者的利用率约为35%。

然而，有了这一优势，沙特仍然需要以某种形式实施碳价格。报告称，按照目前国内天然气价格为每百万英热1.25美元，碳价约为每吨65美元，到2030年前，绿色氢气将与灰色氢气竞争。 

加快出口

假设到2030年前绿色氢气的生产成本为每公斤1.48美元，那么从沙特西部地区通过苏伊士运河将氢气运送到鹿特丹港的成本可能相当有竞争力。

为了估算这个生产成本，研究人员还对转化为载体、运输和脱氢的成本进行了假设。他们认为，液态氢气可以在2030年抵达鹿特丹港，平均运输成本约为每公斤3.5美元至4.5美元。根据最近的研究，到2030年，欧洲绿色制氢的成本将在每公斤3美元到5美元之间。

虽然沙特向欧洲出口氢气的价格似乎具有竞争力，但这在很大程度上取决于使用的载体类型。海上运输液氢的方法，或以液态有机氢载体(LOHC)的形式，仍在发展中。氨气是氢能的载体，但如果需要纯氢气，则需要将氨气裂解回氢气(脱氢)。根据最近的研究，这将每公斤增加1美元到2美元不等的额外成本。

为了避免这种潜在的成本增加，KAPSARC的研究人员建议沙特生产商寻找机会直接使用氨气，无论是蓝色还是绿色。用灰色氨气代替化肥的生产可以找到市场。新的应用，如日本用于发电的蓝色氨气，也可能带来出口机会。

研究人员还倡导沙特国内的脱碳化工业，如合成氨和甲醇工厂，通过将它们转换为低成本的蓝色或绿色氢气。这种转变可能会扩大到国内其他行业，如钢铁、水泥和铝。研究人员还看到交通运输领域的潜力，包括新的燃料电池应用和可持续的航空燃料。

这一战略可以降低沙特的碳足迹，同时也为沙特出口碳中和产品的生产开辟新的机会。低碳氢气将降低许多行业成品的碳含量，从而在全球碳政策变得更加严格的情况下更好地定位它们在国际市场上的地位。 

地区绿色和蓝色氢气战略

沙特广阔的领土表明，氢气生产的地区专业化是可行的。KAPSARC的报告认为，这两个一般地区的基础设施和自然特征的独特组合可以使氢气——无论是绿色氢气还是蓝色氢气——的生产成本在世界上最低。

沙特东部地区拥有巨大的石油和天然气生产、炼油和化学工业设备，有很多基础设施支持蓝色氢气工业的发展。这包括获得深层含盐水层用于二氧化碳储存。

沙特西部地区拥有非常强大的太阳能和风能资源，可以生产低成本的电力，用于生产绿色氢气。位于沙特西北部的NEOM项目已经成为世界上最大的绿色氨气生产工厂之一。其生产的氢气将用于生产主要用于出口的氨气。

这些独特的地区优势可能使沙特追求广泛的氢气战略，包括绿色氢气和蓝色氢气。

这种地区绿色氢气和蓝色氢气战略是否可行，将取决于蓝色氢气和绿色氢气的相对成本。彭博新能源最近分析了28个国家的成本，结果显示，到2030年，蓝色氢气在世界上的很多地方都无法使用。根据这项分析，即使在美国这样天然气相对便宜的国家，到2030年，来自可再生能源的绿色氢气的生产成本也将低于蓝色氢气。

但是沙特的情况可能不同，它不在彭博新能源建模的国家中。彭博新能源贸易和供应链主管琼斯表示：“蓝色氢气的竞争力将取决于从沙特国家石油公司获得的天然气价格。”他目前正在撰写一份关于中东和北非氢气出口的报告。

琼斯说：“现有的生产、运输和储存基础设施，以及当地的油气价值链，当然是扩大蓝色氢气规模的优势。”

琼斯警告说，蓝色氢气出口的机会可能会受到竞争和外部约束的限制。欧洲对进口氢气的新兴需求可能会受到绿色氢气授权的限制。与此同时，那些希望进口蓝色氢气的国家，比如日本，可能会找到一个距离更近的低成本供应国，即澳大利亚。

因此，琼斯认为沙特的绿色氢气将用于出口，而其蓝色氢气将有助于当地脱碳氢气消费（2019年为每年229万吨，是目前中东消费最大的）。

琼斯说：“当地的灰色氢气用于生产甲醇和成品油产品，这两个行业都是低碳氢气利用的高潜力行业。” 

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下:

Saudi Arabia Bets Big On Blue Hydrogen

Hydrogen is booming, and Saudi Arabia is racing to get a piece of the pie.

Hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels could replace gray hydrogen, strengthening Saudi export potential in a range of products

Saudi Arabia is already a large consumer of hydrogen for its refinery and chemicals industries.

While the world begins to build the infrastructure of a future hydrogen economy, the economics of global trade in carbon-free hydrogen are becoming more clear. Among countries expected to find significant opportunities in that future market is Saudi Arabia.  

According to a recent report from a notable Riyadh-based research institute, green hydrogen produced from electrolysis could begin to ship to the Port of Rotterdam in 2030 at prices quite competitive with European hydrogen, depending partly upon the shipping method used. 

The researchers also see significant potential for hydrogen in KSA’s domestic industry. Hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels could replace gray hydrogen, strengthening Saudi export potential in a range of products as more costs are imposed on carbon emissions worldwide. 

They see great potential for both blue (with carbon capture) and green (with renewable energy) hydrogen, with technology and production costs gradually falling for both types. Their outlook for blue is more positive than that of some recent analyses, which foresees green hydrogen beating blue on price in many regions of the world by 2030. 

But Saudi Arabia’s apparent advantages in producing low-cost hydrogen of both types may allow it to develop each for the long term. Therefore the researchers advocate a balanced approach, anticipating regional specialization within the country.

Realistic assumptions

The report, “The Economics and Resource Potential of Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia” by the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), was issued in March. 

The KAPSARC researchers look at realistic cost scenarios based on realistic assumptions about the price of natural gas in Saudi Arabia, and the cost of electricity from renewable sources. The anticipated costs and capacity factors of electrolysis systems are also carefully considered. 

Saudi Arabia is already a large consumer of hydrogen for its refinery and chemicals industries; primarily ‘gray’ hydrogen produced with high carbon emissions. It is by far the cheapest way to produce the gas at about $0.90/kg. But costs of blue and especially green hydrogen are expected to decline substantially in the next few years.

Blue hydrogen gains an advantage from Saudi Arabia’s huge production of natural gas and its closed market for it. KSA neither exports nor imports natural gas and maintains a low price, currently at $1.25/MMBtu. At this price, the cost of producing blue hydrogen could fall from the current $1.34/kg to $1.13/kg by 2030. This assumes ongoing cost reductions in carbon capture & storage (CCS) methods as these scale up.  

The cost of green hydrogen is highly dependent on the cost of electricity from renewable sources and electrolysis. It is $2.16/kg today based on an electricity price of $18.3/MWh (an average of auction prices for new solar projects in Saudi Arabia). The researchers see that this cost could fall to $1.48/kg by 2030, if renewable energy costs fall to $13/MWh. 

The cost of green hydrogen production in KSA could fall further to $1/kg by 2050. Reaching the vaunted $1/kg target assumes electrolyser capital costs drop to $400 per kilowatt, with renewable energy costs falling below $10/MWh, both realistic scenarios. 

The researchers see an enormous advantage in KSA’s ability to achieve high capacity factors in its production of renewable electricity. They assert that capacity factors can reach 60% in the production of renewable power in Saudi Arabia; that it is possible with a PV-Wind hybrid system. In fact, large areas of the country, especially in the western region, are favorable for diurnal (day and night) solar and wind energy production. This greatly surpasses, for example, wind power in Europe with capacity factors of approximately 35%. 

With this advantage, however, a carbon price in some form will still need to be imposed in Saudi Arabia. The report says that green hydrogen will be competitive with grey hydrogen by 2030, at the current domestic natural gas price of $1.25/MMBtu and a carbon price of about $65 per tonne. 

Expediting exports 

Assuming a green hydrogen production cost of $1.48/kg by 2030, the delivered cost of hydrogen from Saudi Arabia’s western region to the Port of Rotterdam via the Suez Canal can be quite competitive.  

To estimate it, the researchers also make assumptions about conversion to carrier, shipping and dehydrogenation costs. They think liquid hydrogen can arrive at Rotterdam in 2030 with a delivery cost averaging between about $3.50/kg and $4.50/kg. This compares favorably to the expected cost of green hydrogen production in Europe, which according to recent research will be between $3/kg and $5/kg in 2030. 

While it appears that Saudi hydrogen exports to Europe can be competitively priced, much will depend on the type of carrier used. Methods for the sea transport of liquid hydrogen, or in the form of a liquid organic hydrogen carrier (LOHC), are still in development. Ammonia is a proven carrier of hydrogen energy, but it requires cracking the ammonia back to hydrogen (dehydrogenation) if pure hydrogen is needed. This adds an additional cost ranging from $1/kg to $2/kg according to recent research. 

To avoid this potential cost, the KAPSARC researchers suggest that Saudi producers look for opportunities to trade ammonia for direct use, whether blue or green. Markets may be found by substituting for gray ammonia in the production of fertilizers. New applications, such as blue ammonia for power generation in Japan, may also open opportunities for export. 

They also advocate for de-carbonizing domestic industries, such as ammonia and methanol plants, by switching them to low-cost blue or green hydrogen. This conversion could extend to other domestic industries, such as steel, cement and aluminum. The researchers also see potential in the transport sector, with new fuel cell applications and sustainable jet fuel. 

This strategy could lower the country’s carbon footprint while also opening new opportunities for the production of carbon-neutral products for export. Low-carbon hydrogen would lower the carbon content of many industries’ finished products, thereby better positioning them for international markets as carbon policies become more stringent worldwide.

Regions green and blue

Saudi Arabia’s vast territory suggests that regional specialization for hydrogen production is feasible. The KAPSARC report sees two general regions where unique combinations of infrastructure and natural features could make hydrogen production costs among the lowest in the world, for both green and blue hydrogen. 

The country’s eastern region, with its great apparatus of oil and gas production, refining, and chemical industries, has much of the infrastructure in place to support the development of a blue hydrogen industry. This includes access to deep saline aquifers for CO2 storage.

The western region enjoys very strong solar and wind resources to produce low-cost electricity for green hydrogen production. The NEOM project, in the northwest, is already the site of what is planned to be one of the largest green ammonia production plants in the world. Its hydrogen will be used to produce ammonia intended largely for export. 

These unique regional advantages may allow KSA to pursue a broad hydrogen strategy that encompasses both green and blue hydrogen.

Whether such a regional strategy proves viable will depend on the relative costs of blue and green hydrogen. Recent analysis by BloombergNEF, which looks at costs in 28 countries, shows that blue hydrogen will not be viable in many parts of the world in 2030. Even in countries such as the United States, with relatively inexpensive natural gas, green hydrogen from renewable power will cost less to produce than blue hydrogen in 2030, according to this analysis.  

But the case may be different in KSA, which was not among the countries modeled in the BloombergNEF analysis. 

“The competitiveness of blue hydrogen would depend on the price at which gas is acquired from Aramco,” says Antoine Vagneur-Jones, head of Trade and Supply Chains at BloombergNEF, currently working on a forthcoming report on Middle East & North Africa hydrogen exports. 

“Existing production, transport and storage infrastructure, and a local hydrocarbon value chains are of course advantages when scaling blue H2,” he says. 

Vagneur-Jones cautions that opportunities for blue hydrogen export may be limited by competition and by external constraints. Europe’s emerging demand for hydrogen imports may be restricted by the mandate for green hydrogen. Meanwhile, places looking to import blue hydrogen, such as Japan, may find a closer low-cost supplier, namely Australia. 

Therefore he thinks that Saudi Arabia’s green hydrogen is destined for export while its blue variety will help decarbonize local hydrogen consumption (which, at 2.29 million metric tons per year in 2019, is the largest in the Middle East by far). 

“Local gray hydrogen is used to make methanol and refined oil products, both of which are high potential sectors for low-carbon hydrogen use,” he says.