沙特阿拉伯原油产能已达到峰值？

• 西方的石油制裁造成了全球原油供应的巨大缺口。 

• 美国呼吁沙特阿拉伯提高原油产量，以帮助控制原油价格。  

• 然而，沙特阿拉伯可能已达到或接近其原油产能峰值。

据美国油价网7月12日报道，用之或弃之——这一原则可能适用于沙特阿拉伯的原油生产能力。西方世界现在正盯着沙特阿拉伯，希望沙特阿拉伯增加原油产量来填补禁运造成的、与产能大国规模相当的供应缺口。然而，正如全球领先的研究型数据统计公司Statista的Katharina Buchholz在下面详细描述的那样，沙特阿拉伯在过去三年里只在一个月内原油日产量接近其宣布的1200万桶的最大产能，这让人怀疑沙特阿拉伯是否有能力迅速提高原油产量以稳定世界市场。据彭博新闻社报道，这样的预测来自阿联酋领导层，阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯是欧佩克成员国中唯一拥有备用产能的两个国家——至少在纸面上是这样。 

美国政要本周将访问沙特阿拉伯，增加全球原油供应将是美国政要此次中东之行的首要议程。 到目前为止，由于地区爆发军事冲突，这个海湾最大原油生产国及其欧佩克盟友一直不愿做出重大改变。欧佩克坚持其缓慢的增产计划，以扭转3月至6月期间疫情时期的减产，并在最近同意在未来几个月更快地提高产量配额，考虑到世界市场的戏剧性发展。沙特阿拉伯在欧佩克今年8月的原油日产量配额为1100万桶，比很长一段时间以来的原油日产量都要多，但仍然比该国难以捉摸的最大原油日产量配额低整整100万桶。

欧佩克公布的统计数据显示，在疫情暴发之前，沙特阿拉伯的原油产量一直低于其产量配额，只有在与产能大国发生价格战以后，沙特阿拉伯原油产量在2020年4月接近其宣布的最大产能，从而导致产量配额被取消。在接下来的几个月里，沙特阿拉伯宣布退出，自愿接受比对手更低的原油产量配额。 

如果沙特阿拉伯能够增加原油产量，他们可能也不想增产。 

如果再发生一次原油供应中断，就像最近欧佩克产油国因政治动荡而发生的原油供应中断那样，这将把全球原油产量推至可能的边缘，就会带来内在风险。由于这种破坏根本无法得到补偿，它可能会导致油价更剧烈的飙升。 

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

Has Saudi Arabia Reached Peak Oil Capacity?

·     Western sanctions  have left a massive gap in global oil supplies.

·     The United States has called on Saudi Arabia to ramp up production to help keep prices under control.

·     Saudi Arabia may, however, be at or near its oil production capacity. 

Use it or lose it – this principle might apply to Saudi Arabia’s oil production capacity that is now eyed by the Western world to fill the bigger producer-sized gap in supply left behind by embargoes. However, as Statista's Katharina Buchholz details below, Saudi Arabia in the past three years only approached its declared maximum production capacity of 12 million barrels per day in one month, casting doubts on the kingdom’s ability to quickly up its production to stabilize world markets. According to Bloomberg, such predictions have come from UAE leadership, who together with the Saudis are the only OPEC members who have spare production capacity – at least on paper.

The Gov is traveling to Saudi Arabia this week and the increase of the global oil supply will be on the top of the agenda for the U.S. Up until now, the Gulf kingdom and its OPEC allies have been reluctant to make major changes as a result of the war. OPEC stuck to its slow production increases that were scheduled to reverse Covid-era cuts between March and June, and only recently agreed to up production quotas faster in the coming months in the light of the dramatic world market developments. Saudi Arabia’s OPEC production quota for August 2022 stands at 11 million barrels a day – more than it has been in a long time and still a whole million barrels a day below the country’s elusive maximum quota. 

As seen in data by the organization, Saudi Arabia has remained below its production quota prior to the Covid-19 epidemic and only once approached its declared maximum production capacity in April 2020 amidst a row with it that saw production quotas go out the window. The following months, the kingdom stood down, accepting lower production quotas than its rival on a voluntary basis.

If the Saudis can in fact produce more, they might also not want to.

Driving oil production to the edge of what is possible globally holds an inherent risk should another disruption, like it happened recently in one member of OPEC due to political unrest, should occur. Since that disruption can then not be compensated at all, it could cause an even more drastic jump in oil prices.