上半年全球海上油气市场攀升17% 达到7年来最高水平

据世界石油网2022年7月15日报道，英国造船和海运业分析机构克拉克森研究公司（Clarksons Research）7月15日发布的今年上半年全球海上油气市场的统计数据显示，全球海上油气市场的活跃度、利用率和日收益率增加17%。

克拉克森研究公司总经理史蒂夫·戈登在回顾了这些统计数据以后作出如下评论：

今年上半年全球海上油气市场综合指数上涨17%，达到7年来最高水平

· 全球海上油气市场继续取得令人鼓舞的进展，克拉克森海上指数（涵盖钻机、海上支援船和水下建造船的日费率）在今年上半年上涨17%，达到7年来的最高水平，在去年全年28%的涨幅基础上进一步上涨。作为背景，目前的综合指数（74%）比10年峰值（2014年101%）低27%，而10年平均综合指数为66%，10年最低综合指数为44%（2017年）。  

· 石油价格环境（尽管近期有所下滑，但布伦特原油在今年上半年的平均价格为110美元/桶，为2013年以来的最高半年度价格)、海上活动的增加以及合并、重组、有限的新建和正在进行的移除对船队供应的多年影响，都支持了利用率和日费率环境的改善。此外，对能源安全的日益关注也有助于项目批准的某些要素。通胀压力和全球宏观经济状况可能成为不利因素。 

今年上半年全球在用钻机数增加6%，钻机日费率和利用率提高5个百分点，我们的预测表明钻机利用率将进一步提高…… 

· 今年上半年全球钻机需求增长6%（自升式钻机增长3%至367部，浮式钻机增长14%至132部），到今年年中将达到499部，比去年年初增加11%。超深水浮式钻机市场供应紧张（水深≥ 7500英尺，利用率同比增加10个百分点），以及中东/ISC地区固井活动加剧（上半年达成35份合约，同比增加>200%），导致6月底钻机费率指数在今年上半年上升24%，至104%，但仍比2014年初低38%。

· 今年上半年可移动式海上钻井装置 （自升式和浮式）的综合利用率上升5个百分点，在7月初达到84% （自升式84%/浮式82%），在6月21日和20日分别上升11个百分点和6个百分点，达到6月15日以来的最高水平。我们预计，到今年年底，自升式和浮式钻机利用率将达到87%和88%，到2023年底前将分别达到90%和 93%。

· 如今，整个钻机船队规模比2018年小13%。 

海上支援船费率指数上涨18%，自2021年初以来上涨了50%

· 全球海上支援船费率指数在今年上半年增加18%，达到126点，自2021年初以来上涨53%，在一些地区，大型平台供应船费率接近2014年前的低迷水平。三用工作船（AHTS）短期费率的改善较为缓慢（上半年+12%），而超大型North AHTS即期日费率在6月底飙升至惊人的17.375万英镑，创下历史新高。  

· 今年上半年全球海上支援船利用率上升4个百分点，在7月初达到68%，比去年初上升11个百分点，但仍比2014年初低18个百分点。 预计到2023年底，海上支援船利用率将达到80%。 

· 自2018年初以来，海上支援船船队的总规模缩减4%，减少到3500艘。  

· 搁置不用资产数量持续下降，海上支援船搁置不用数量自2015年以来首次低于800艘（但仍占船队的23%）。由于市场继续吃紧，海上支援船搁置不用数量可能会进一步下降。 

· 进入旺季，水下支援船市场开始收紧，全球多用途支援船利用率在7月初上升到82%，为2014年以来的最高水平，而美国多用途支援船的利用率（今年年初以来+90%）和北海利用率（+20%）进一步回升。 

强劲的S&P活动，有限的新建订单，FPSO授予活动增加，预计今年将有16个新建订单

· 全球海上油气船队新建活动在今年上半年仍然非常有限，但移动式海上生产装置（包括FPSO）行业的情绪仍然乐观（上半年5个订单；我们预计今年全年将授出16个新建/转换加上9个重新部署）将是2014年以来的最高水平。海上风电继续占海上新建活动的50%，其中风电安装船 （上半年14个）和海上风电场运维船（上半年12个）合同数量有望超过去年的总和。 

· 由于买家寻求定位市场好转，今年上半年报告了150笔海上销售，这是有史以来最强劲的一年开始。今年上半年S&P活动在钻机领域明显增加，因为中东地区的业主扩大了他们的船队，共有27部自升式钻机的销量，已经比2021年全年的销量高出59%。 资产定价也开始回升（我们的海上支援船二手价格指数今年迄今上涨39%，但仍比2014年初低53%）。 

李峻 编译自 世界石油网

原文如下：

Offshore market up 17% to highest level for 7 years, Clarksons Research shows

Half-year data points for the offshore market released by Clarksons Research, profiling improving activity, utilization and day rates across the offshore oil and gas market, show the overall index is up 17%.

Reviewing the data, Steve Gordon, Managing Director of Clarksons Research, commented: 

Overall Index up 17% in 1H to highest level for seven years …

•Offshore markets continued to make encouraging progress with the cross segment Clarksons Offshore Index (covering Rigs, OSV and Subsea construction vessel dayrates) rising 17% across 1H 2022 to a seven year high, building further on the 28% improvement across 2021. For context, the current index (74) remains 27% below the ten year peak (101 in 2014) and compares to a ten year average of 66 and a ten year low of 44 (in 2017). 

•The oil price environment (despite recent softening, Brent averaged $110/bbl in 1H 22, the highest half-yearly av. since 2013), increasing offshore activity and the multi-year impacts on fleet supply of consolidation, restructuring, limited newbuilding and ongoing removals have all been supportive of the improving utilisation and day rate environment. In addition, the increasing focus on energy security has been supportive of some elements of project sanctioning. Inflationary pressures and global macro-economic conditions may become headwinds. 

Active rig count up 6% in 1H, day rates and utilization (+5 points) improving, our projections suggest further utilization improvements …

•Global rig demand increased by an encouraging 6% across 1H (jack-ups: +3% to 367, floaters: +14% to 132), reaching 499 active units by mid-year, 11% above start-21. Tight UDW floater markets (>=7,500ft utilization up 10pp y-o-y) and heightened fixing activity in the Middle East/ISC (35 contracts agreed in 1H, up >200% y-o-y) saw our Rig Rate Index rise 24% across 1H 22 to 104 points at end-June, though still 38% below start-14. 

•Combined MODU utilization (basis jack-ups and floaters) rose 5 points across 1H 22, reaching 84% (84% for JU / 82% Floater) at start-July, up 11pp and 6pp on start-21 and start-20 respectively, and at the highest level since Jun-15 (albeit still 10pp below start-14). We project that Rig utilization (see Offshore Drilling Rig Monthly) will reach 87% / 88% by end-22 and 90% / 93% by end-23 for JU / Floater. 

•Today the overall rig fleet is 13% smaller than it was in 2018, 

Overall OSV Rate Index up 18% across 1H and is now up >50% since the start of 2021…

•The Clarksons OSV Rate Index increased by 18% across 1H 22 to 126 points, up 53% since the start of 2021, with large PSV rates closing in on pre-2014 downturn levels in some regions. AHTS term rate improvements were slightly more gradual (+12% across 1H) although very large North AHTS spot rates surged to a spectacular £173,750/day in late June, a record high. 

•Global OSV utilization rose 4 points across 1H 22 to reach 68% at start-July, up 11pp on start-21, though still 18pp below start-14. We are projecting 80% utilization by end 2023 (see Offshore Support Vessel Monthly). 

•The overall OSV fleet has contracted by 4% since the start of 2018 to ~3,500 "boats" (AHTS >4,000 BHP, PSV > 1,000 dwt). 

•The number of laid-up assets continues to decline, with OSV lay-up falling below 800 units for the first time since 2015 (though it still equates to a significant 23% of the fleet). It seems likely that OSV lay-up will decline further as the market continues to tighten, although many long-term lay-ups are expected to have already been re-purposed for alternative markets or be scrapped 'in situ'. 

•Subsea support vessel markets have tightened moving into the peak season, with global MSV utilization rising to 82% at start-July, the highest level since 2014, while rates in the US (+c.90% since start-22) and the North Sea (+c.20%) have picked up further. 

Strong S&P activity, limited newbuild ordering, FPSO award activity ramping up with 16 projected for 2022 …

•Offshore oil & gas fleet newbuild activity remained very limited in 1H 22 though sentiment in the MOPU (including FPSO) sector remains bullish (5 orders in 1H; our projection for full year awards (16 newbuilds / conversions plus 9 redeployments) would be the highest since 2014). Offshore wind continues to account for c.50% of offshore newbuilding activity, with contracting in the WTIV (14 in 1H) & C/SOV (12) sectors on track to surpass totals seen last year. 

•150 offshore sales reported in 1H 22, the strongest start to a year on record, as buyers sought to position for the market upturn. S&P activity picked up notably in the rig sector in 1H, as Middle Eastern owners expanded their fleets, with 27 jack-up sales reported, already 59% above the full year 2021 total. Asset pricing has also begun to pick up (our OSV Secondhand Price Index is up 39% in the ytd, though still 53% below start-14).