据道琼斯7月18日消息，由于担心经济衰退，过去一个月原油价格下跌了20美元/桶，这让人们对全球石油需求仍大于供应的说法产生了一些怀疑。但高盛表示，全球炼油产能下降以及对主要石油生产商的检查表明，供应紧张确实存在，而且可能会持续下去。该公司在一份研究报告中表示：“从中期到长期来看，石油市场将保持紧张，欧佩克（闲置产能低）和美国页岩油的增长预计有限。然而，经济衰退风险给近期前景带来了波动/不确定性。”高盛仍预计布伦特原油价格将走高，即使在最糟糕的情况下，预计2023年油价仍将达到90至105美元。
庞晓华 摘译自 道琼斯
原文如下：
Global Oil Supplies to Stay Tight
A $20 decline in crude-oil prices over the past month amid recession fears is casting some doubt on the argument that global oil demand still outweighs global supply. But Goldman Sachs says a decline in global refining capacity and a check on key producers shows supply tightness indeed exists, and is likely to remain. "In the medium to long term, the oil market is poised to remain tight, with limited growth expected from both OPEC (on low spare capacity) and US shale," the firm says in a research note. "However recession risks brought volatility/uncertainty to the near-term outlook." Goldman still sees Brent trading higher, and even in a worst cast scenario sees $90-$105 into 2023.
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