知名对冲基金：石油需求将超出预期

据美国油价网7月22日报道，知名对冲基金经理皮埃尔·安杜兰周五在社交媒体中表示，即使全球经济衰退，石油需求也可能会超出预期。‎

这位对冲基金经理表示，受疫情影响，过去几年中的消费需求一直远低于趋势水平。‎

安杜兰指出，从2000年到2010年、2010年到2019年，年均石油需求增长相当稳定，约为120万桶/日至130万桶/日，与人口增长基本一致。以2019年为基准，按照需求年增长120万桶/日来计算的话，今年世界平均需求量将为1.042亿桶/日或比目前预期的9920万桶/日高出500万桶/日。

“‎即使是在一个非常疲软的经济环境下，石油需求仍可能会出乎意料地上升”，他补充到。

就在地缘政治冲突爆发的前几周，安杜兰曾表示，今年年底，油价可能会创下每桶200美元的历史新高，因为无论是欧佩克+的非洲成员国还是美国开采页岩油的石油生产商都无法弥补产能大国的供应缺口。‎

考虑到高油价打压原油需求，且多国央行纷纷通过加息缓解通胀压力将导致经济放缓甚至衰退，国际机构最近下调了今年全球原油需求预期。

例如，国际能源署上周预计今年全球石油需求增长为170万桶/日，把其对今年全球石油需求增长预期下调10万桶/日。

国际能源署上周在石油市场报告中表示：“油价上涨和经济环境恶化已开始对全球石油需求造成影响，但亚洲强劲的发电需求和经济复苏正在部分抵消这一影响。”

孙美玲 摘译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

Pierre Andurand Sees Oil Demand Surprising To The Upside 

Global oil demand is more likely to surprise to the upside even in a very weak economy, popular hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand said in a Twitter thread on Friday.

Due to COVID-related lockdowns, demand has been way below trend over the last few years, the hedge fund manager said.  

Average annual oil demand growth from 2000 to 2010, and 2010 to 2019 was quite steady at around 1.2 million bpd to 1.3 million bpd, and in line with population growth over time, Andurand noted. Taking 2019 as a base, and estimating demand growth at 1.2 million bpd per year, we should be at 104.2 million bpd of demand for 2022. But the latest estimate is 99.2 million bpd, or 5 million bpd below trend already, the hedge fund manager noted.

“Very weak demand is already in the forecasts,” Andurand said, but added that “it is more likely to surprise to the upside, even in a very weak economy, assuming we can get enough supply.”

In the first weeks after the war, Andurand said that oil prices could jump to an all-time high of $200 per barrel by the end of this year, as oil producers ranging from African members of OPEC+ to the U.S. shale patch would struggle to replace the larger producer crude that is going off the market. 

Forecasts of global demand growth have been downgraded in recent weeks amid concerns that high fuel prices are starting to dent demand and that an economic slowdown, and even recession, is in the cards in the near future as central banks have begun an aggressive cycle of key interest rate hikes to fight high inflation.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), for example, revised down last week its oil demand growth estimate by 100,000 bpd to 1.7 million bpd growth for 2022.

“Higher prices and a deteriorating economic environment have started to take their toll on oil demand, but strong power generation use and a recovery in Asia are providing a partial offset,” the agency said in its closely-watched Oil Market Report (OMR) last week.