国际能源署：今年全球电力需求增长明显放缓

据美国油价网2022年7月20日报道，总部位于巴黎的国际能源署（IEA）在其最新一期的电力市场报告中说，由于经济增长放缓和能源价格高企，全球电力需求增长已经明显放缓。 

IEA说，“今年全球电力需求增长将显著放缓。在疫情封锁缓解和经济快速复苏的推动下，去年全球电力需求强劲增长6%，我们预计今年全球电力需求增长将放缓至2.4%，与2015年至2019年的平均水平大致相同”。

IEA表示，全球电力需求增长放缓反映出，在爆发地缘政治冲突以后，全球经济增长放缓、能源价格上涨，以及公共卫生方面的新限制。

根据IEA公布的统计数据，可再生能源的增长速度超过需求，正在取代化石燃料，今年迄今为止的强劲产能增长帮助全球可再生能源发电实现10%的增长。

此外，IEA指出，欧盟正准备通过加快清洁能源转型，降低对产能大国化石燃料进口的依赖。 

IEA对未来一年的预测也不乐观：“截至今年年中，我们预计2023年全球电力需求增长将保持与今年类似的速度。可再生能源8%的强劲增长和核能发电的复苏可能会取代部分天然气和煤炭发电，导致电力行业的二氧化碳排放量下降1%。” 

如果预测准确的话，全球电力需求下降对天然气生产商来说可能是个坏消息，因为化石燃料在全球发电量中所占比例高达25%。

对于天然气投资者来说，还有更多的坏消息，欧盟周三（7月20日）向成员国提议，在明年3月之前将天然气使用量削减15%，以应对产能大国可能切断对欧洲的天然气供应的“可能情况”。 

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

IEA:Global Electricity Demand Has Slowed Dramatically

In its latest Electricity Market Report, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) says that global demand for electricity is already slowing sharply thanks to slowing economic growth and high energy prices.

“Electricity demand growth is slowing significantly in 2022. After global electricity demand grew by a strong 6% in 2021, propelled by rapid economic recovery as COVID-19 lockdowns eased, we expect growth to slow to 2.4% in 2022--about the same as the average from 2015 to 2019,” according to the report.

The agency said that the slowing growth reflected slower global economic growth and higher energy prices following the war as well as renewed public health restrictions, particularly.

Renewable sources of energy are growing faster than demand and replacing fossil fuels, according to the international energy body, with strong capacity additions so far this year helping global renewable power generation achieve a 10% growth clip.

Further, the agency notes that the EU is gearing up to lower its reliance on the larger producer fossil fuel imports by accelerating the clean energy transition.

The IEA has given a poor prognosis for the coming year, too: “As of mid-2022, we expect global electricity demand growth in 2023 to remain on a similar path as this year. Strong renewables growth of 8% and recovering nuclear generation could displace some gas and coal power, resulting in the electricity sector’s CO2 emissions declining by 1%,” the IEA has predicted in its report.

If accurate, falling electricity demand is likely to be bad news for natural gas producers, with fossil fuels accounting for a whooping 25% of global electricity generation.

In more bad news for natural gas punters, the European Union has proposed to member states Wednesday to cut gas usage by 15% until March as it braces for the "likely scenario" that the lager producer could cut off gas flows to Europe.